If you really want to earn money in the stock market, then don't deal in stocks - trade the nifty.
For all the technical analysis I do, I rarely trade in stocks...I trade the nifty.
Years of trading experience has taught me one simple thing...it is far easier to take a directional call on the broader market than individual stocks. If the economy is doing well, the market (nifty) will anyway do well (and vice versa).
Stock movements tend to cyclical, news driven or rangebound for considerable periods of time. Not only do you have to identify the sector correctly, you should also be able to pick the right stock. And then there is this possibility - everything else rallies except what you have bought.
From a fundamental perspective, this means you don't have to worry about crude oil, interest rates, FII inflows (or outflows), quarterly results, sectors, analysts talk and whatever you can think of.
Some advantages of trading the nifty:
- Index is the barometer of the stock market. If the market does well, Nifty will anyway rise (and vice versa)
- All FIIs and Mutual funds have an exposure on index and index stocks
- All good and bad news is reflected in index (nifty)
- You can play both sides of the market and profit from rallies as well as corrections
- You can daytrade in nifty (not recommended) or carry forward positions till expiry
- Low brokerage / nil demat costs
- Excellent liquidity: The daily turnover of nifty futures & options is 2-3 times that of ALL stocks traded on BSE.
- Low volatility: no wild swings. Because the nifty index is made of 50 stocks, it is always less volatile than the individual stocks.
- Low investment: as nifty is least volatile, NSE margins are lowest. This reduces investment amount substantially.
Is there any catch?
Nifty futures and options being derivatives, have an expiry period (the last Thursday of every month). You cannot take "delivery" and hold positions indefinitely the way one can do with stocks.
You can however exit a position any time you feel like...same day, same week, etc. So you can daytrade or carry forward positions till expiry date.
With stocks, you can take delivery and hold positions indefinitely. Very often, this is how traders become investors and short term investors become long term investors!
Futures trading is a leveraged transaction. In case of Nifty, every 1% change leads to 8% change in your profit (or loss). So while you can earn fantastic profits, you can also lose money.
Options trading is tricky. For buyers, investment is less and profits unlimited. But the real profit depends on the option bought, days left to expiry, implied volatility and how fast the underlying moves. The time decay can knock off your entire investment. But if you follow the trend and always buy in-the-money options, then you need not worry. Most retail investors lose money because (a) they trade against the trend and (b) they have absolutely no idea about option pricing.
One can earn 100% or sometimes even 200% return in a month (buying option). On the other hand, a wrong trade can reduce capital.
Transaction costs (brokerage) is not an issue as we are not looking at intraday trades. Since positions are carried forward for many days, this really does not matter.
Rangebound markets are a problem as technically there is no way to predetermine this situation. Unfortunately there is no solution here and one has to live with this. Fortunately nifty seldom trades in a range.
Summary: Irrespective of what you trade in - stocks, futures or options, you will earn money only if you follow the trend. If you trade against the trend, you are almost sure to lose money. So the problem is not with the instrument but with the trading style.
