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Cherry Picks
| From : Pradip Ray at 11:41 PM - Jun 10, 2011 ( ) |
Share it on FacebookI found quite a no of stocks within Rs 100- 500 - last qtr result good, vol pretty high, sales to eq ratio healthy, no scam known but presently selling @ lower than 20/50/200 DMA support. Can we catch them if they go by another 10-15 points ?Ex Hindalco,Hind Zinc,IDFC,IDBI,DLF,Sesa Goa,REC, Are they Cherry picks ?!!
IN ALL THE SUGGESTIONS HERE NIFTY TREND/ LEVEL IS THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION AS ALLMOST ALL THE STOCKS INVOVED ARE POSITIVE BETA STOCK
TO DAY CHK THE VOLUME IN ASHOK LEYLAND AND BULLISH HARAMI IN ARSS INFRA.
ARSS 6 Rs UP.AL 0.66 Re.
Ashok Leyland gave 27 to day- 3 % up and critical lvl. Arss gave 4 % (Day's H/ L basis ). Keep in watch.
Amendment 1 : DRL- replaced by ICICI Bank; NLC by Berger Paints; amara Raja by Exide; Godrej Consumer Products added.
From : Pradip Ray at 11:05 AM - Mar 17, 2012 (23 hours ago)
My picks will be commensurate to my risk exposure and related dispositions (eg age,available money;restlessness,expected return).They are mainly short term positinal swing cum Trading stocks.Strategy is buy them in dip; sell as soon as one gets more than 4-5 % ; holding period around 1-3 month (may be less); Multiple buy and sell is possible. (anybody and every body may opine;No problem.)
I will try to segregate the portfolio picks in 3-4 categories viz :
Large cap, Nifty or junior Nifty stock ; high beta and volatile. Picks are Axis bank,Bank of Baroda,Tata Steel,DRL
Fundamentally and technically good volume stocks. Not very high beta and amenable to news and Govt decisions. picks are REC,PFC,IOC,CESC,Bharti,Sun Pharma,Engineers Ind,Coal India, NLC and BHEL
Value pick type. Picks are Havells, God Ind, CIPLA, BIOCON.Fkonco.HCL Infotech,Yes Bank,Educomp
Low valued (100-300) stocks. Al Bk,amara raja,Kajaria Ceramics,Sintex,Uflex,Tata Chem.
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Friends, I will wait for another 2-3 days b4 starting my exploration. Let few more Q4 come out.
Ranjit
Stock closes at highest level this year... bullish as long as stock holds above 110.
One may chk this
http://www.vfmdirect.co.in/kpl/show.cgi?topicid=1334601482
Also check Patni...
cmp 504.7...with sl of 498, positional target of 520 seems easily achievable. Above 520 it will rock.
Dada..check Auropharma..
Suggested today @ 121 lvls achived trgt given of 123 and 126.
It seems to be agood buy for short term now.
With SL of 123, expecting target of 131/135/142 by weekend.
Keep money in ur trading A/c. This week we will , hopefully , get chance to pick up 5-6 stocks at their entry level. No BO type; fundamentally strong; good to conservative beta. And 10-15 % growth opportunity in 2-3 months. You can also suggest some name with rationale. I will do my part of the job. Lets c. And SL myth is to be checked from a different perspective.
Now trade,
A sector / co wise Budget effect :
Oil /Gas : -ve for Cairn,OIL,ONGC ,RIL; +ve for Gail,IGL,Petronet
FMCG :- -ve for HUL/GSK/Pidilite; neutral for ITC. Paints : +ve for Asian;Berger.
Auto:--ve for TML.Maruti,2 wheeler,MNM. Education :- +ve for Educomp.Core,Everonn,NIIT.
Infra : +ve for Pratibha,,Supreme,KNR. Irrigation :- +ve for Jain,Nagarjuna,Ramky.
Banks: +ve for PSU; NBFC :- +ve for REC,PFC,IDFC;
Power Utilities :- +ve for Tata Pwr,RPower. Cement : +ve for ACC,India,Mad cem,JK
Pharma :- -ve for Cadilla,Sun Ph, IT :- +ve for Mindtree,Vakrange,Bartronics
Ranjit I am ok with sadbhav, AL BK and Ceat;will avoid KSB and Tata Chem (Jindal poly looks intrstng)
Mr Balu - I will try to put up a stock specific impact of these pronouncements.
Dear Pradipji,
why can't you read the following catalogue of info carved out from the recent edition of TOI to assess post-budget scenario on various sectors. Sorry for cramping your thread with this voluminous stuff but them my temptation to give you some feeds has overtaken this caution
Come on.
AIRLINES
State of the Industry
During April-December 2011, domestic and international passenger traffic grew 15.4% and 7.2% year-on-year, respectively, due to aggressive pricing by Indian carriers.
However, the industry’s profitability has been under pressure as players have been unable to pass on the entire increase in fuel costs. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margins fell 17 percentage points year-on-year and stood at -4.8% during this period.
Budget Impact
The overall impact is expected to be neutral. Airline companies have been allowed to raise external commercial borrowings (ECBs) worth $1bn to fund their working capital needs. However, given the highly leveraged balance sheets and pressure on their margins, this move is not expected to have any significant impact.
The proposal to reduce the rate of withholding tax on interest payments on ECBs to 5% from 20% for the next three years is expected to lower the cost of borrowings marginally for Indian carriers, which have raised funds through the ECB route.
BANKING & FINANCE
State of the Industry
Credit growth in the industry is expected to be flat at 17% in 2012-13 as interest rates soften, investment demand picks up and domestic debt replaces forex loans. Gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) rose to 2.8% of the total assets in December 2011 from 2.3% in March 2011.
By March 2013, GNPAs are expected to increase further to 3.2% of the total assets.
Budget Impact
The overall impact is expected to be neutral. In 2012-13, public sector banks (PSBs) are expected to receive majority of the Rs 15,900 crore allocated for recapitalization of government financial institutions. Additionally, a financial holding company is proposed to be set up to raise funds for PSBs, which is a positive, given that they need significant capital to meet Basel III norms.
However, the RBI’s ability to cut interest rates would be impeded by high fiscal deficit levels. This could hit investments and credit growth in 2012-13. Rise in disposable incomes due to a favourable change in tax slabs and continuation of 1% interest rate subvention on home loans up to Rs 15 lakh (for houses below Rs 25 lakh) would benefit financiers.
CEMENT
StateoftheIndustry
Demand growth in the first 10 months of 2011-12 was a muted 6% year-on-year due to the slow pace of construction activity. Large capacity additions during the year are expected to further drag down operating rates to 74%. However, average pan-India cement prices rose by approximately 15% year-on-year. Price rise is expected to offset the pressure of rising input costs.
BudgetImpact
The overall impact is expected to be neutral. The Budget has proposed to increase the ad valorem component of excise duty to 12% from 10% while reducing the specific duty component to Rs 120 per tonne for non-mini cement plants. This is likely to increase the effective excise duty by 1-1.5% for most companies.
The proposal to exempt imported non-coking coal from basic customs duty (earlier at 5%) is expected to increase operating profit by 1-1.5% at the industry level. However, at the company level, the impact will vary based on its dependence on imported coal.
INFRASTRUCTURE: ROADS
StateoftheIndustry
Close to Rs 7 lakh crore investment is expected in roads and highways from 2011-12 to 2015-16 - more than double the amount pumped into the projects in the previous five-year period. Projects under National Highway Development Programme (NHDP) Phase I and II have largely been completed while awarding of projects under Phase III, IV and V is progressing at a brisk pace. Overall, approximately 40% of the total length under theNHD Pisyet to be awarded.
BudgetImpact
The overall impact is expected to be positive. National Highway Authority of India has been allowed to issue tax-free bonds totalling Rs 10,000 crore after last year’s issue of Rs 10,000 crore was fully subscribed. This is expected to further support NHA Iin its implementation of highway projects.
At the corporate level, there has been a reduction in the withholding tax on interest payments of external commercial borrowings from 20% to 5%. This is expected to only marginally reduce the cost of borrowings of road developers since these companies’ exposure to ECBs is limited.
PORTS & AIRPORTS
State of the Industry
Investments of Rs 1.2 lakh crore are expected from 2011-12 to 2015-16 towards the development of ports and airports, with ports accounting for 80% of the total funds. PPP projects are expected to account for over 75% of the investment. In 2012-13, traffic at airports and ports is seen growing at 10-11% and 6-7%, respectively.
Budget Impact
The overall impact is expected to be neutral. Allocation of funds in the form of tax-free infrastructure bonds for the ports sector remains unchanged at Rs 5,000 crore. While this will facilitate fund availability for port projects, it will not have a significant impact since the same amount was available last year and the ports sector was not able to issue any bonds.
Companies in the ports and airport sectors having external commercial borrowings will see a reduction in their cost of borrowings as the rate of withholding tax on interest payments on ECBs is proposed to be reduced to 5% from 20% for the next three years.
FMCG
StateoftheIndustry
Medium-term prospects for the sector remain healthy; growth is expected to be driven by increased offtake across product categories, continued rural penetration and rising per capita consumption. The sector is facing rising commodity costs and high competitive intensity. However, given the products’ nature, it is able to pass on inflationary pressures to consumers.
BudgetImpact
The overall impact is expected to be neutral. Higher slabs for personal income tax will increase disposable income, though the impact is not significant. The excise duty rates have been increased to 12% from 10%. The increase in excise duty will not materially impact the profitablilty of FMCG players, as some of their units are in duty-free zones and the large players are able to pass on the price increases to end-consumers.
There is an increase in the basic excise duty on cigarettes longer than 65 millimetres, by adding an ad valorem component of 10% to the existing rates. A hike in the excise duty on cigarettes will be neutral for ITC’s profitability, as it will be able to pass on the increase to consumers.
STEEL
State of the Industry
Hit by the slowdown in automobiles, construction and infrastructure sectors, domestic consumption of steel rose by a mere 2.4% year-on-year during April-November 2011. With the recovery of these sectors, demand picked up in October-December 2011 and is expected to grow at 5-7% in 2011-12 and 6-8% in 2012-13.
Weak demand and high input costs (especially, domestic iron ore prices) are expected to keep margins under pressure. But players with access to captive iron ore mines will be less affected.
Budget Impact
The Budget proposal to hike excise duty to 12% from 10% is expected to have a neutral impact on the industry. Hike in the excise duty is expected to be passed on to customers and is expected to result in a price rise of Rs 700 to Rs 1,000 per tonne. Increase in customs duty on flat steel could provide flat steel players the flexibility to further increase prices by Rs 500 to Rs 1,000 per tonne.
AUTOMOBILES
StateoftheIndustry
Cars and UV sales are expected to moderate to 2-4% in 2011-12. Demand was affected by rising fuel prices, high interest rates and a strike at Maruti Suzuki’s plant during the year. Two-wheeler sales have grown 11-13% owing to rural demand. MHCV sales have been impacted by lower freight availability, and are estimated to grow by 8-10% in 2011-12. LCV growth is seen at 26-29%.
BudgetImpact
The overall impact is expected to be marginally negative. Higher excise duty on cars, commercial vehicles and two-wheelers will be passed on to consumers. Excise hikes will also be partially offset through the rise in individual tax slabs, especially in case of small cars and two-wheelers.
Demand for sedans and luxury cars, though, will be hit with the rise in excise duty to 27% from 22% and basic customs duty to 75% from 60% on completely built units. Extension of interest subvention on crop loans, additional subvention up to 3% on prompt payment and 21% rise in agricultural credit is seen aiding tractor sales.
POWER
StateoftheIndustry
Capacity addition in the power generation sector is expected to double to 86 gigawatt (GW) between 2011-12 and 2015-16 from 42 GW added between 2006-07 and 2010-11. It will be led by private companies. Limited domestic fuel availability to result in lower plant load factors. The weak financial position of state distribution utilities poses risk to power offtake and timely payments.
BudgetImpact
The overall impact is expected to be positive. Exemption on 5% customs duty on thermal coal, natural gas and LNG will provide some relief to power generators reeling under high fuel costs. One-year extension of the sunset clause to avail of the 10-year tax holiday for new projects, and an additional 20% depreciation in the first year for power generation projects will encourage investments.
The proposal to allow external commercial borrowings to part-finance the rupee debt of existing projects and reduction of withholding tax to 5% from 20% on interest payments on ECBs is expected to reduce borrowings cost. Availability of funds is expected to improve through provision for issuance of Rs 10,000 crore tax-free bonds.
TELECOM
State of the Industry
With a reduction in competitive intensity, mobile industry revenues are expected to grow at 13% in 2012-13 compared with the estimated 9% in 2011-12. Average revenue per unit is expected to improve, after falling at 20% compound annual growth rate in the past five years. The National Telecom Policy, expected in 2012, could provide clarity on issues such as spectrum pricing, M&A norms, spectrum re-farming, and abolishment of roaming charges.
Budget Impact
The overall impact is expected to be neutral. Operators are expected to pass on the service tax rate of 12% to subscribers. The excise duty on mobile phones has been retained at 1%. Under the scheme for support to public-private partnership in infrastructure, fixed network for telecommunication and towers have been made eligible for viability gap funding. However, this is not likely to have any significant impact. The government has estimated receipts of Rs 40,000 crore in 2012-13 from spectrum auction.
TEXTILES
State of the Industry
The apparel market grew approximately 10% year-on-year in value terms in 2011, led by higher prices. Sales volumes were flat while those in the export market fell 3%. Operating margins across the value chain fell in 2011-12, due to sluggish demand and limited pricing flexibility. In 2012-13, consumption is expected to rebound, aided by lower cotton prices and a consequent fall in apparel prices.
Budget Impact
The overall impact is expected to be positive as excise duty on branded apparels and made-ups has been cut and customs duty on shuttle-less looms removed. Effective excise duty on branded apparels and made-ups has been cut to 3.6% from 4.5%. Concessional excise duty on cotton chains (excluding branded garments and made-ups) has been raised to 6% from 5%, although it remains optional.
Allocations under the Technology Upgradation Funds Scheme for 2012-13 are at Rs 2,910 crore compared with the revised estimate of Rs 3,700 crore in 2011-12. Currently, it is not clear whether TUFS would be available for investments after March 31, 2012. However, the ministry has recommended its continuation.
FERTILIZER
State of the Industry
In 2011-12, fertilizer consumption rose by a marginal 1.9%, to 58 million tonne, as complex fertilizer consumption fell due to higher international prices and inadequate subsidy rates. Fertilizer consumption is expected to register a 6.6% compound annual growth rate from 2011-12 to 2016-17 to reach 83.8 million tonne, led by complex fertilizers.
Budget Impact
The overall impact is expected to be positive. Fertilizer demand is expected to get a boost from cheaper credit availability to farmers. The government will provide interest subvention to farmers who make timely repayment of loans.
Although the government has extended investment-linked benefits, proposed exemption on customs duty on capital equipment and provided viability gap funding for new projects, investment in urea plants is dependent on gas allocation. Cut in basic customs duty on some water-soluble fertilizers may increase their use, resulting in positive impact.
OIL & GAS
State of the Industry
Political unrest in the Middle East pushed up crude prices to $125 a barrel in February 2012. Prices averaged at $113 a barrel between April 2011 and February 2012. Under-recoveries of oil marketing companies more than doubled to Rs 97,300 crore in April-December 2011 from Rs 46,900 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year due to high crude prices, inadequate revision in regulated fuel prices and a weak rupee. This hit companies’ profitability.
Budget Impact
The overall impact is expected to be negative. Proposed increase in cess on crude oil production, to Rs 4,500 per tonne from Rs 2,500 per tonne, will increase oil production cost by $5-6 per barrel. Government estimates of oil subsidies for 2011-12 and 2012-13 seem to be conservative.
Given mounting under-recoveries, OMCs and upstream public-sector undertakings may have to absorb a higher share of under-recoveries, which will pressurize profits. The government has decided to include oil & gas/ LNG storage facilities and oil & gas pipelines as eligible sectors for viability gap funding, which is marginally positive.
PHARMACEUTICALS
State of the Industry
The Indian pharmaceuticals industry is expected to continue growing at a healthy 16-18% year-on-year to $36-37bn in 2012-13. Exports will be the key growth driver, as players increasingly tap the generics space in regulated markets, and contract manufacturing opportunities for bulk drugs rise rapidly. Domestic formulations market will continue its steady double-digit growth of 14-15%, touching $14bn during the year.
Budget Impact
The impact of the increase in excise duty to 6% from 5% on formulations and to 12% from 10% on bulk drugs is expected to be neutral as these hikes are expected to be passed on to consumers by the companies. The five-year extension of the 200% weighted deduction for in-house R&D expenditure will marginally benefit Indian players as R&D expenditure on an average forms less than 5% of their net sales.
My picks will be commensurate to my risk exposure and related dispositions (eg age,available money;restlessness,expected return).They are mainly short term positinal swing cum Trading stocks.Strategy is buy them in dip; sell as soon as one gets more than 4-5 % ; holding period around 1-3 month (may be less); Multiple buy and sell is possible. (anybody and every body may opine;No problem.)
I will try to segregate the portfolio picks in 3-4 categories viz :
Large cap, Nifty or junior Nifty stock ; high beta and volatile. Picks are Axis bank,Bank of Baroda,Tata Steel,DRL
Fundamentally and technically good volume stocks. Not very high beta and amenable to news and Govt decisions. picks are REC,PFC,IOC,CESC,Bharti,Sun Pharma,Engineers Ind,Coal India, NLCand BHEL
Value pick type. Picks are Havells, God Ind, CIPLA, BIOCON.Fkonco.HCL Infotech,Yes Bank,Educomp
Low valued (100-300) stocks. Al Bk,amara raja,Kajaria Ceramics,Sintex,Uflex,Tata Chem.
for portfolio I feel
Ifci / sadbhav/ Ceat / Albk/Ksbpumps / Tatachem
Requesting Dada to pls check..
holding period atleat 1 -3 yr.
Booking whenever in profit.
Time has come to recall this thread. I will try to chk the retracement levels of the portfolio stocks given elsewhere in this thread. For to day Good Night.
I am not updating this thread for the simple reason that it has served its purpose for the time being. I will restart this post 15 th March. Till then pls chk my Intraday picks thread.
Good to see that it travelled to 119 to day. 10 % in few days. Till March one can expect this. Take advantage.
From : Pradip Ray at 03:34 PM - Feb 13, 2012 (2 days ago)
Tata Pwr carrying. above 109 it will have a good run.
5600 spot reached. Tata Power reached 119.Uflex gave 140 type. Have u taken dely / traded ?
MORNING DADA
Each person you encounter has hopes, dreams, joys, pains, problems, abilities, interests, things to do and opinions....
Regards
hnm
To morrow there may be a correction.Use it to grab Tata Power and Uflex. Positional.
From : Ravi Ra at 05:13 PM - Feb 16, 2012 (3 hours ago)
sir....whts tomrw stock -cash calls........???/
A mixed but positive day. Nifty gap down open was expctd to compensate yesterday's gap up. Eve other wise the Market was a bit heated up; too much too quick. There was some uncertainity about dely etc.
Any body traded in some stocks mentioned during the last coupla days ? I Tata Power as expcted gave a smart 5-6 % move above the 200 DMA. I sqred off as I generally aim a 4-5 % return in a week. Margin is a bit stretched.
Uflex entering trading zone. Keep a watch.
Voltas may surprise. So is IOC and Coal India. Trade per the teend.
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