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Sensex WEEKLY Chart 1-1-2008 to 9-7-2010 .(Bhikka Modi)
| From : Bhikka Modi at 06:19 PM - Jul 10, 2010 ( ) |
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Sensex Chart with Support & Resistances Plotted...keep the levels in mind while observing the other indicators that are mentioned in the chart & u won't have to worry about which direction the market will be moving...VOLUMES play very important part.... because like everything else in Economics its always About DEMAND & SUPPLY.. if Resistance is Broken with Big Volumes means DEMAND is Exceeding Supply .....if a Resistance is Broken with Low Volumes then its a Sign of Caution because that means the Demand has'nt Exceeded the Supply but some Speculators are holding with malicious intensions........... same goes in case of Support......... TRENDS Do Not Reverse OverNight..... DEMAND Needs to Exceed SUPPLY by some margin for TREND To REVERSE
My Short Term Findings on the Above Chart are:-
1) Sensex Last Week Strong Closing CANDLESTICK has Negated the Bearish CandleStick that Sensex had made for Previous 2 Weeks before that............. this has Increased the chances of Sensex Retesting Previous High 18050 if Breaks Above that with Big Volumes then chances of it Testing 18315 if Breaks Above that too with Good Volumes then 18500 could also be Tested
2) Flaws i see in this happening is that the Volume of the LAST Week Bullish Candlestick is not that Good as compared to the Bearish Candlesticks of the Previous 2 Weeks .............. Global Markets have also Rebounded from the Recent Lows but again the same Dark Spot is also visible in their charts too ....that is Market has moved Up but on Thin Volumes............. if your Long then play very Cautiously because BREAKOUTS happen on Big Volumes & not on falling Volumes........
3) Technically many Indicators on Weekly & Monthly Charts are Not Supporting this UP Move in the Markets
4) Another Worrying factor is when you start hearing the word DECOUPLING ...... it reminds me what happened in last 2007 when other markets had started correcting but Indian market were still moving UP then in Jan 2008 Sensex hit New Lifetime Highs & then in 1 day in 5 mins. Nifty fell 1000 points & India was once again Coupled with Global Markets...................
5) World is in New Era which is Governed by Corporates & not by Governments....... keep that in mind always....
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Excellant explanation. Thank you. I have closed my all my longs. Thank you for your caution.
Dow Volume 200 M Avg Vol. 231 M
Advancers Unchanged Decliners
4731 0 1316
Yesterday once again Dow rallied 100 points but on thin Volumes...... don't know how long this phony rally will keep going ........ But Yesterday Dow Broke ABOVE very important Technical Levels 200 SMA & the point of Death Cross ( 50 SMA crossing 200 SMA from Above ) both these levels were at 10400 & Yesterday Dow has Closed @ 10425 .....this is a Big Warning Bell to all Short Sellers...... if on Monday & Tuesday Dow can Stay ABOVE 10400 then Dow is heading to 11300
Dow Volume 194.41 M Avg. Vol. 233.62 M
Advancers Unchanged Decliners
4581 0 1479
Yesterday Dow made a Turn around from -140 points it Closed in the Green + 75 points................ again on an UP day of 225 points from the Days Low with so much of Volatility the VOLUMES were once again left wanting........ Volumes once again Falling SHORT by 20% of Average Trading Volume........... how pathetic these Up moves are ......suggests where all the Bailout Money the Bankers have actually Put In rather than give Credit in the Actual Economy to Jump Start the Real Economy & stop playing MonoPoly in the Stock Markets with that ZERO Interest Rate money........with each passing Day US economy is turning more pathetic..........
Dow Volume:335.06
Avg Vol: 241.64M
Advancers Unchanged Decliners
1058 92 5069
Yesterday Dow fell 260 points & the Volumes can be seen is almost 40% more than the Average traded Volume............. something to think about how Reliable this rally is because on Up days the Volume falls Short by 20-30% of Average Traded Volume
From : Pavan
Gupta at 06:33 AM - Jul 15, 2010 (2 days ago)
i can see inverse head & shoulder pattern in weekly chart
with neckline of 17735
breaking of which may lead to higher target .
whats ur view on this?
_____________________________________________
Hi Pavan......... i don't believe there's Head & Shoulder Pattern Because you can see there are already 3 Necklines from 2009 & the FOURTH Neckline has also been made after this week...... Thrice it has Broken Above the Neckline & has Failed to sustain....... so to me that H & S Pattern picture is out of the picture long back............ look at other Indicators on that Chart what are they suggesting & you will also find Proof of what market has done everytime those indicators reach there.........
hi BM
i can see inverse head & shoulder pattern in weekly chart with neckline of 17735
breaking of which may lead to higher target . whats ur view on this?
CopyCat Zone KeAnalyst .......... Short Sellers Ki Chinta Na Kare........... phele Technicals , F & O , Economic Fudamentals aur Global Markets....... in mei se Kisi ki aache tarah Padhaye Kar Le aur Yeha Vaha Ki Website Se COPY karna Band Kar De........... Market Hai...... Profit aur Loss Dono Hota Rahega....... lekin Dono Mei Se Jo Hoga..... Woh Apni Akal aur Kabiliyat Par Hoga....... Kisi Aur Ka COPY karke nahi hoga................ Trade on what Your Analysis Believes In & Not what Others Believe or Think........ Only Market has the Right to Prove you Right Or Wrong.......
very well said sirji nifty may rest little b4 4 a upmove take care
From : Bhikka Modi
at 09:50 PM - Jul 14, 2010 (3 hours ago)
As we all know Indian
stock markets do not have Backbone of its own & all Technical
Indicators Flip Flop when Dow moves in Certain Direction with Momentum
& Volume.......Dow 200 SMA @ 10370 Close Above this with Momentum
& Volume then its heading to 10535 / 10600...... in that case Nifty
should also move Higher.... that's My View...
For All Types of Bulls & Bears 18300 - 18500 is going to be the Biggest Conjestion Zone......................... For Bulls the effect of Steroids has faded away which is visible from past 15 sessions.......For Bears the bad news is that they have been pushed back on the Edge of the Cliff.......their exsistance has come under threat now...... can they save themselves ???
Dow Volume:174.54 M Avg Vol: 243.19M
199 957 5237
NIce........ Euro is once again Down 1.25 after closing Above 1.27 on Friday but could Not sustain Above it for even 1 day ............ Dollar Index ....... as my Expectation was Dollar Index will hold 83 on Downside ...it has'nt even got tested it yet made a Low @ 83.70 on Friday.......now @ 84.25....
Sonu...... even if Dollar Index does break 83 on the Downside somehow it will find Support @ 80 because Dollar Index BULL RUN is intact but Dow Jones has already entered in Bear Phase......... but i still believe 83 will be a Tough Cookie to Crack on the Downside...
Hmmm.. . should be Interesting BM coz if it doesn't break 83 it should zoom to 91...
July 13 is Infosys Q1 Result & Q2 Guidance ....... this could be the deciding Factor which can give Nifty BreakOut or BreakDown from the this Small Range of 5220 - 5360 for past 10 trading sessions
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