S&P Dow at inflection points with Sensex ( HEMANT )
From : Hemant Parikh at 04:10 PM - May 21, 2010(21 months ago)
Total Views: 165
I had sent out an analysis of how the US indices were mimicking the 2007 topping process
There is more evidence of that on the way down as well.
The first chart [wavechart] is from 2007 and shows an expanding triangle with Green lines
The first attempt to break down from the distribution pattern was truncated and follwed by a right
shoulder of a potential H&S with the neckline at the yellow line. When the yellow line broke
in Jan 2008 the Indian market that was outpeforming the World made its top.
when the green line broke close to the 16th of Jan we just crashed as all longs were unwould fast.
The second chart [Wavechart1] looks at what is happening today. An expanding triangle formed
and a right shoulder of an H&S also formed recently. The market is now fast approaching the neckline
at 1070 and green line at 1062. Once we close below both is could set fire to longs that are
unwilling to unwind. One look at the third chart shows that Futures OI[FOI.bmp] is not falling with the fall in the market and is close to the highest level seen in April. This clearly shows that longs are not unwinding.
A break of these levels globally could create that final leg of panic among leverated investors again.
SOURCES : EMAIL
In Reply to above Message (1 to 4 out of 4) -- Latest Replies are put on Top
From : Hemant Parikh at 04:31 PM - May 21, 2010(21 months ago)
I forgot to add one final point on thisIn 2007 the H&S target based on the head was achieved once theneckline broke.The same target for the S&P is close to 940 and Dow close to 8500.So we should be headed there pretty soon.
My time frame for the entire decline in the current leg to play out is four weeks starting with this week. So after today 3more weeks at least will be negative weeks based on week on week closing. That should mean bearish till10-17 of Jun approx where we can look for a meaningful bottom to the ongoing panic.
SOURCES : EMAIL
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I had sent out an analysis of how the US indices were mimicking the 2007 topping process
There is more evidence of that on the way down as well.
The first chart [wavechart] is from 2007 and shows an expanding triangle with Green lines
The first attempt to break down from the distribution pattern was truncated and follwed by a right
shoulder of a potential H&S with the neckline at the yellow line. When the yellow line broke
in Jan 2008 the Indian market that was outpeforming the World made its top.
when the green line broke close to the 16th of Jan we just crashed as all longs were unwould fast.
The second chart [Wavechart1] looks at what is happening today. An expanding triangle formed
and a right shoulder of an H&S also formed recently. The market is now fast approaching the neckline
at 1070 and green line at 1062. Once we close below both is could set fire to longs that are
unwilling to unwind. One look at the third chart shows that Futures OI[FOI.bmp] is not falling with the fall in the market and is close to the highest level seen in April. This clearly shows that longs are not unwinding.
A break of these levels globally could create that final leg of panic among leverated investors again.
SOURCES : EMAIL
