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WHY IS EVERYONE IN A HURRY TO SHORT??---By Syam Nair

From : Syam Nair at 09:10 PM - Mar 10, 2010 ( )
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THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF MY THREAD....http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=43634

WE SEE MORE THAN 80% OF MEMBERS SHORTING NIFTY OR BUYING PUTS IN A HURRY THESE DAYS...BUT MARKET JUST REMAINED RANGEBOUND...

OFCOURSE THERE ARE NEGATIVE FACTORS LIKE OVERSOLD RSI TO BACKUP SHORTING...

BUT FOR THOSE WHO THINK,MARKET WILL CRASH....I AM PRESENTING HERE...
WE HAVE MORE POSITIVE DATA HERE THAN NEGATIVES...

AS PER GLOBAL CUES...NASDAQ IS AT IT'S 52 WEEK HIGH...DOWJONES ABOVE 10500...FTSE ABOVE 5600....

I HAVE RARELY SEEN A OPTION WITH OVER 1 CRORE OI AND THAT IS 5000PE...THUS,OPTION DATA ALSO REALLY POSITIVE...EVEN IF A TECHNICAL CORRECTION HAPPENS,WE WILL SEE A HUGE BOUNCEBACK AROUND 5066...

I AM NOT SAYING DO NOT SHORT....BUT WHY DO WE NEED TO HURRY AND SHORT IN THIS RANGEBOUND MARKET??

LET MARKET SHOW US THE DIRECTION...WAIT A LITTLE...STOCKMARKET IS ALWAYS THERE...



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From : Syam Nair at 01:18 PM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


VIJAYKUMAR JI...NIFTY FUTURES MADE NEW HIGH....5135...LOW OR HIGH VOLUMES,NIFTY IS MAKING NEW HIGHS,NOT LOWS...MAYBE A TRAP??





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From : Bhikka Modi at 01:14 PM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


European Markets yesterday Closed UP in GREEN around 0.75- 1% so unless they are deep in Red...Nifty won't take Clue from those markets...





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From : Vijay Kumar at 01:14 PM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


BUT LESS VOLLUME ON THE FUTURE...DEAR





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From : Syam Nair at 01:12 PM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


Yes,abooji...Indian market now is not following these global cues...not up or down...tight range...Is market waiting for IIP figures?China's inflation worries has come as a new negative news for global markets...European futures indicate a lower start...But still...Nifty futures is at 5 points premium with much higher buys than sells...





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From : Aboobacker Tp at 01:07 PM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


As per today's data also, nifty is bullish only if close above 5147.10 and bearish if close below 5092.15. DJ fut is now trading with about 30 point discount in fut market from yesterday's closing level.





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From : Syam Nair at 01:03 PM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


Yes,Ravi bhai,Wholesale price index(WPI) is still high...Also,let's not forget the increase in fuel prices...For midterm,this is going to have a negative effect...One relaxation is sugar prices have slashed this week...So maybe it will make up for the fuel inflation...

Also agree with Prabhas...in the end,it's how media and market manipulate any news...





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From : Prabhas Khanra at 12:53 PM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


Hi Raviramprasad, worst is not behind us. You need much more knowledge about inflation.





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From : Raviramprasad Rao at 12:49 PM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


Food inflation has eased..Maybe the worse is behind us.





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From : Syam Nair at 12:45 PM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


Food inflation eases to 17.81 pct

The food price index rose 17.81 per cent in the 12 months to Feb. 27, while the fuel price index was up 11.38 per cent, the government said on Thursday. The rise in the food price index was marginally lower than an annual rise of 17.87 per cent in the previous week.India's primary articles price index was up 15.08 per cent year-on-year as on Feb. 27.
India's annual wholesale price inflation picked up to 8.56 per cent in January, compared with 7.31 per cent last December.

SOURCE:INDIAN EXPRESS

 





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From : Syam Nair at 11:02 AM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


Indian federal bond yields opened marginally higher on Thursday on the back of higher U.S. yields but traders said the market would be rangebound ahead of the factory output and inflation data due in the coming days.

* At 9:07 a.m. the yield on the Indian benchmark 10-year bond IN10YT=RR was at 7.99 percent, up from 7.98 percent at close on Wednesday.

* On Tuesday, the yield had risen to 8.02 percent matching the 17-month high hit on Monday.

* U.S. Treasuries prices slipped on Wednesday as traders cut prices to draw buyers to securities the U.S. Treasury is auctioning this week. [US/]

* Dealers said the bond would find support at around 8 percent levels but trading would be rangebound until fresh cues emerge. Traders were awaiting the industrial output data on Friday and inflation data on Monday for direction.

* Industrial output is forecast to rise 16.65 percent in January from a year earlier, the median forecast in a poll of 20 economists shows. That is marginally lower than an annual rise of 16.8 percent in December. [ID:nSGE61B0DF]

* The central bank would release later this month the size, frequency and tenure of bonds to be auctioned for the financial year starting on April 1. This calendar would then set the tone for the start of the next financial year. 

SOURCE:REUTERS

LET THESE DATA COMEOUT AND LET THIS RANGE BE BROKEN...I AM WAITING...SHORTS ARE HIT AGAIN....





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From : Syam Nair at 10:44 AM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


YES,BHUPINDER JI...ABOO JI IS REALLY AN EXPERT...AS YOU SAY,IT'S GOOD TO BUY RIL ON A THREE MONTH HORIZON...WITH LOT OF CASH RESERVE,A NEWS FROM THIS BIG GIANT GOING FOR NEW ACQUISITIONS IS MUCH AWAITED...

TO ADD,MY SL FOR NIFTY IS SPOT LEVELS....NOT FUTURE LEVELS....





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From : N.senthil Kumar at 10:43 AM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


tnx boss





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From : Syam Nair at 10:37 AM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


YES,SENTHIL JI...TODAY'S HIGH AT 5121.5 CAN BE THE STRICT SL....JUST 6 POINTS TO STOPLOSS FROM 5115...FOR JUST GAINING 25 POINTS(UNLESS THE RANGE BREAK),WE NEED THAT TIGHTER SL...





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From : Bhupinder Singh at 10:36 AM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


excellent information by respected abobacker i am really impressed --simple lucid way of explaing --i have added ril at 1012--3 months horizon





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From : N.senthil Kumar at 10:32 AM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


any stop 4 this boss





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From : Syam Nair at 10:22 AM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


IT HAPPENED AGAIN...ANOTHER DAY WHERE MOST MEMBERS ARE  GOING SHORT EARLY BELOW 5105...BUT NIFTY BOUNCED BACK....

ANYWAY SELLING NIFTY NOW AROUND 5115 SOUNDS GOOD LOOKING AT THE NEGATIVE ASIAN CLUES...TARGET 5090...JUST 25 POINTS...





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From : Prabhas Khanra at 08:42 AM - Mar 11, 2010 ( )


Hi Aboobacker, Can you start new thread regarding EW analysis and teach us.





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From : Aboobacker Tp at 09:47 PM - Mar 10, 2010 ( )


22 trading days finished with this going on moving wave. Today itself,15 stocks from nifty50(index movers)showed and closed with a bearish sign in wich including tatamotors too, but still have to confirm this bearish trend of these stocks wich we may deside by tomorrow's closing. 5stocks from 50 showed from monday and confirmed today.6 from 50 already in a bearish trend. all these are based on elliot theory and with in my trading facility.So, people, they are trying to catch  the nifty trend as early as possible, because downward movement is limitted as per present situation. There is nothig extra ordinary in this cases. Option data wich may change with in an hour.  





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From : Jawed Iqbal at 09:46 PM - Mar 10, 2010 ( )


To Shyam ;-- Your question is nice Really a most of person are afraid of further fall perhaps these person made a heavy loss in past and now afraid of buying at higher level but we dont forget that we are in bull run now and it will be better if market get some correction this is sign of healthy market.I does not see any major correction (if happen) so early at least for the next 1 month and not believe that it will break the strong support like 4850 or 4950 the experts who say that it will go down upto 4500 ,they are misguiding investors .The up move chances are more than down move.BUY AT DIP for long term .





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From : Sanjay Tiwari at 09:45 PM - Mar 10, 2010 ( )


well said shyam...y cant we see that everything is positive for now..instead of buying puts v sud go with the market which is clearly going up...the only problem is china they are also not moving...everything else is fine...y buy puts and loose sleep over it..market is going up...y cant v see that...every dip sud be bought v are consolidating at 5100 from past 3 days (accumulation phase)..if nifty has to break a range it will be 5150 ... thanks




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