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| From : Rajesh Jindal at 09:25 PM - Feb 14, 2010 ( ) |
Share it on FacebookI WENT to work when I was just out of grammar school. I got
a job as quotation-board boy in a stock-brokerage office. I was
quick at figures. At school I did three years of arithmetic in
one. I was particularly good at mental arithmetic. As
quotation-board boy I posted the numbers on the big board in the
customers' room. One of the customers usually sat by the ticker
and called out the prices. They couldn't come too fast for me. I
have always remembered figures. No trouble at all.
There were plenty of other employes in that office. Of
course I made friends with the other fellows, but the work I
did, if the market was active, kept me too busy from ten A.M. to
three P.m. to let me do much talking. I don't care for it,
anyhow, during business hours.
But a busy market did not keep me from thinking about the
work. Those quotations did not represent prices of stocks to'
me, so many dollars per share. They were numbers. Of course,
they meant something. They were always changing. It was all I
had to be interested in the changes. Why did they change? I
didn't know. I didn't care. I didn't think about that. I simply
saw that they changed. That was all I had to think about five
hours every day and two on Saturdays: that they were always
changing.
That is how I first came to be interested in the behaviour
of prices. I had a very good memory for figures. I could
remember in detail how the prices had acted on the previous day,
just before they went up or down. My fondness for mental
arithmetic came in very handy.
I noticed that in advances as well as declines, stock
prices were apt to show certain habits, so to speak. There was
no end of parallel cases and these made precedents to guide me.
I was only fourteen, but after I had taken hundreds of
observations in my mind I found myself testing their accuracy,
comparing the behaviour of stocks today with other days. It was
not long before I was anticipating movements in prices. My only
guide, as I say, was their past performances. I carried the
"dope sheets" in my mind. I looked for stock prices to run on
form. I had "clocked" them. You know what I mean.
You can spot, for instance, where the buying is only a
trifle better than the selling. A battle goes on in the stock
market and the tape is your telescope. You can depend upon it
seven out of ten cases.
Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new
in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as
the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has
happened before and will happen again. I've never forgotten
that. I suppose I really manage to remember when and how it
happened. The fact that I remember that way is my way of
capitalizing experience.
I got so interested in my game and so anxious to anticipate
advances and declines in all the active stocks that I got a
little book. I put down my observations in it. It was not a
record of imaginary transactions such as so many people keep
merely to make or lose millions of dollars without getting the
swelled head or going to the poorhouse. It was rather a sort of
record of my hits and misses, and next to the determination of
probable movements I was most interested in verifying whether I
had observed accurately; in other words, whether I was right.
Say that after studying every fluctuation of the day in an
active stock I would conclude that it was behaving as it always
did before it broke eight or ten points. Well, I would jot down
the stock and the price on Monday, and remembering past
performances I would write down what it ought to do on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Later I would check up with actual transcriptions
from the tape.
That is how I first came to take an interest in the message
of the tape. The fluctuations were from the first associated in
my mind with upward or downward movements. Of course there is
always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern
itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn't go into
explanations. I didn't ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and
I don't ask it today, at forty. The reason for what a certain
stock does today may not be known for two or three days, or
weeks, or months. But what the dickens does that matter? Your
business with the tape is now -- not tomorrow. The reason can
wait. But you must act instantly or be left. Time and again I
see this happen. You'll remember that Hollow Tube went down
three points the other day while the rest of the market rallied
sharply. That was the fact. On the following Monday you saw that
the directors passed the dividend. That was the reason. They
knew what they were going to do, and even if they didn't sell
the stock themselves they at least didn't buy it. There was no
inside buying; no reason why it should not break.
Well, I kept up my little memorandum book perhaps six
months. Instead of leaving for home the moment I was through
with my work, I'd jot down the figures I wanted and would study
the changes, always looking for the repetitions and parallelisms
of behaviour learning to read the tape, although I was not aware
of it at the time.
One day one of the office boys -- he was older than I came
to me where I was eating my lunch and asked me on the quiet if I
had any money.
"Why do you want to know?" I said.
"Well," he said, "I've got a dandy tip on Burlington. I'm
going to play it if I can get somebody to go in with me."
"How do you mean, play it?" I asked. To me the only people
who played or could play tips were the customers old jiggers
with oodles of dough. Why, it cost hundreds, even thousands of
dollars, to get into the game. It was like owning your private
carriage and having a coachman who wore a silk hat.
"That's what I mean; play it 1" he said. "How much you got.
"How much you need?"
"Well, I can trade in five shares by putting up $5."
"How are you going to play it?"
"I'm going to buy all the Burlington the bucket shop will
let me carry with the money I give him for margin," he said.
"It's going up sure. It's like picking up money. We'll double
ours in a jiffy."
"Hold on!" I said to him, and pulled out my little dope
book.
I wasn't interested in doubling my money, but in his saying
that Burlington was going up. If it was, my notebook ought to
show it. I looked. Sure enough, Burlington, according to my
figuring, was acting as it usually did before it went up. I had
never bought or sold anything in my life, and I never gambled
with the other boys. But all I could see was that this was a
grand chance to test the accuracy of my work, of my hobby. It
struck me at once that if my dope didn't work in practice there
was nothing in the theory of it to interest anybody. So I gave
him all I had, and with our pooled resources he went to one of
the nearby bucket shops and bought some Burlington. Two days
later we cashed in. I made a profit Of $3.12.
After that first trade, I got to speculating on my own hook
in the bucket shops. I'd go during my lunch hour and buy or sell
-- it never made any difference to me. I was playing a system
and not a favorite stock or backing opinions. All I knew was the
arithmetic of it. As a matter of fact, mine was the ideal way to
operate in a bucket shop, where all that a trader does is to bet
on fluctuations as they are printed by the ticker on the tape.
It was not long before I was taking much more money out of
the bucket shops than I was pulling down from my job in the
brokerage office. So I gave up my position. My folks objected,
but they couldn't say much when they saw what I was making. I
was only a kid and officeboy wages were not very high. I did
mighty well on my own hook.
I was fifteen when I had my first thousand and laid the
cash in front of my mother -- all made in the bucket shops in a
few months, besides what I had taken home. My mother carried on
something awful. She wanted me to put it away in the savings
bank out of reach of temptation. She said it was more money than
she ever heard any boy of fifteen had made, starting with
nothing. She didn't quite believe it was real money. She used to
worry and fret about it. But I didn't think of anything except
that I could keep on proving my figuring was right. That's all
the fun there is being right by using your head. If I was right
when I tested my convictions with ten shares I would be ten
times more right if I traded in a hundred shares. That is all
that having more margin meant to me -- I was right more
emphatically. More courage? No! No difference! If all I have is
ten dollars and I risk it, I am much braver than when I risk a
million, if I have another million salted away.
Anyhow, at fifteen I was making a good living out of the
stock market. I began in the smaller bucket shops, where the man
who traded in twenty shares at a clip was suspected of being
John W. Gates in disguise or J. P. Morgan traveling incognito.
Bucket shops in those days seldom lay down on their customers.
They didn't have to. There were other ways of parting customers
from their money, even when they guessed right. The business was
tremendously profitable. When it was conducted legitimately -- I
mean straight, as far as the bucket shop went the fluctuations
took care of the shoestrings. It doesn't take much of a reaction
to wipe out a margin of only three quarters of a point. Also, no
welsher could ever get back in the game. Wouldn't have any
trade.
I didn't have a following. I kept my business to myself. It
was a one-man business, anyhow. It was my head, wasn't it?
Prices either were going the way I doped them out, without any
help from friends or partners, or they were going the other way,
and nobody could stop them out of kindness to me. I couldn't see
where I needed to tell my business to anybody else. I've got
friends, of course, but my business has always been the same --
a one-man affair. That is why I have always played a lone hand.
SOURCE - EMAIL .
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Good story on the net from last three years marketbhavishya
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