This is an attempt to forecast nifty for period of next 15 to 25 days.
Don’t ask me the method of this forecast. It is all my own crude methods.
I have back tested this and found that the results are good enough.
Therefore putting it for observation.
Please note that forecast will be on daily basis. However, on many days the forecasted value may be very closer to current day close of nifty. Such forecasts may be ignored.
When to trade ?
Ideally, only when the difference between the current close and forecasted value is more than 50 points (or significantly higher), then there is fair chance of trade.
On back testing we found, the Number of days and the probability of achieving forecasted value (in %) are as below :
|No. of days
|Forecast probability %
Ie. Chance of achieving the forecast value within 5 days is nearly 75%
Chance of achieving the forecast value within 15 days is nearly 85%
Stop loss is according to the loss bearing capacity.
Lets see how it goes… Wait for the forecast…
This post is for observation/study purpose only and not a trading recommendation for anybody.
Investment is stock market is risky as market dynamics can change at any time. Views expressed here are my personal view only not a trading recommendation to anybody. Past performance doesnt guarantee future success. Traders have to study and take their own decision before entering into trade. I am not liable for any profit or loss which may arise because of using my personal views blindly. I may or may not have positions in Stocks or Nifty.
Basis the back tested data, we noticed that the wrong forecasts so far were maximum 4 days continuously
This thread will be closed for some time...
as per request, posting once again.
As mentioned above, this is an attempt to forecast NIFTY (spot) for a period of next 15/20 trading days. This forecast will give an idea where nifty can reach within next 15 days with a fair degree of confidence.
This forecast may be useful if used with other set of tools or methods available to make a trading strategy .
This is not a 100% sure shot forecast. Success rate is approximately 85% (with a horizon of 15 days).
In some cases, forecast may be achieved on the very next day or within 3 to 5 days. In some cases one may have to wait for 10 days or more than 10 trading days...
How to use it ?
Whenever a forecast is given (at the end of day), if the forecast is on the higher side, then on the following day or thereafter, one can enter a BUY trade approximately 30/40 points below the CLOSE or significantly below the CLOSE of forecasting day.
Similarly, if the forecast is on the lower side, then on the following day or thereafter, one can enter SELL trade approximately 30/40 points above the CLOSE or significantly above the CLOSE of forecasting day.
In either case, a stop loss is must according to the capacity.