Kripakar kumble
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NIFTY FORECAST - FORTNIGHTLY

Kripakar Kumble at 06:55 PM - Jul 22, 2018 ( ) Views: 8,407

11 9

Hi friends..

This is an attempt to forecast nifty  for period of next  15 to 25 days.

Don’t ask me the method of this forecast.  It is all my own crude methods.

I have back tested this and found that the results are good enough. 

Therefore putting it for observation.

Please note that  forecast  will be on daily basis.  However,  on many days  the forecasted value may be very closer to current day close of nifty.  Such forecasts may be ignored. 

When to trade ?

Ideally,  only when the difference between the current close and forecasted value is more than 50 points (or significantly higher),  then there is fair chance of trade.

On back testing we found,   the  Number of days  and the probability of achieving forecasted value (in %) are as below :

No. of days 3 5 10 15
Forecast probability % 61 75 82 85

 

Ie.  Chance of achieving the forecast value within 5 days  is nearly 75%

      Chance of achieving the forecast value within 15 days  is nearly 85%

 

Stop loss is according to the loss bearing capacity.

Lets see how it goes… Wait for the forecast…

Happy trading..

 

Disclaimer : 

This post is for observation/study purpose only and not a trading recommendation for anybody.

Investment is stock market is risky as market dynamics can change at any time.   Views expressed here are  my personal view only  not a trading recommendation to anybody.  Past performance doesnt guarantee future success. Traders have to study and take their own decision before entering into trade.  I am not liable for any profit or loss which may arise  because of using my personal views blindly.   I may or may not have positions in  Stocks or Nifty. 

 


From: Kripakar kumble at 09:20 PM - Jul 25, 2018( )


Basis the back tested data, we noticed that the wrong forecasts so far were maximum 4 days continuously
From: Kripakar kumble at 04:24 PM - Aug 08, 2018( )


This thread will be closed for some time...


From: Kripakar kumble at 09:24 PM - Sep 07, 2018( )


Hi friends..

as per request,  posting once again.

As mentioned above,  this is an attempt to forecast NIFTY (spot)  for a period of next 15/20 trading days.  This forecast will give an idea where nifty can reach within next 15 days with a fair degree of confidence.   

This  forecast may be useful if used with other set of tools or methods available to make a  trading strategy .

This is not a 100% sure shot  forecast.  Success rate is approximately 85% (with a horizon of 15 days).

In some cases,  forecast may be achieved on the very next day  or within 3 to 5 days.  In some cases one may have to wait for 10 days or  more than 10 trading days...  

How to use it ?

Whenever a forecast is given (at the end of day),   if the forecast is on the higher side,   then on the following day  or thereafter,  one can enter  a BUY trade approximately 30/40 points below the CLOSE  or significantly below the CLOSE  of forecasting day.

Similarly,  if the forecast is on the lower side,  then  on the following day  or thereafter,   one can enter SELL trade approximately 30/40 points above the CLOSE  or significantly above the CLOSE of forecasting day.

In either case,  a stop loss is must according to the capacity.


(1 to 20 out of 98) - Latest Replies on Top | First | << Previous | Next >> | Last |
Kripakar Kumble at 03:44 PM - Oct 11, 2018 ( )

Ayurda Mali ji..

thanks for your post.

I had posted 10 forecasts,  out of which 10th one has been FAILED  on day one itself.

It was on a testing basis 1 posted 10 forecasts.. 

will continue after some time

 

Aayurda Mali at 03:35 PM - Oct 11, 2018 ( )

sir pl start this also 

Kripakar Kumble at 02:31 PM - Sep 15, 2018 ( )

Rakesh ji

There is some corrections to what you have posted.

Entry is not 11589

It is definitely below this level ..at least 30/40 points minimum. Maximum one can decide.

Stop loss is must according to capacity. It is not that stop loss is zero

Kripakar Kumble at 10:20 PM - Sep 11, 2018 ( )

Hi friends...

forecast no 10,   though there are 12 more days left...  but the risk reward doesnt favour.

Therefore forecast no 10  can be treated as FAILED.

Rakesh Dedhia at 06:09 PM - Sep 11, 2018 ( )

@Balan ji

Example :

Entry : 11,589.10

Tg : 11,638

Sl : 0

CMP : 11,287.50

Dt . : 11/09/2018

M2M : Rs. 22,620/- per lot. (possible loss if booked today)

Profit at the projected target: Rs. 3,667.50/-

For earning Rs. 3,667.50 should we risk till Rs. 22,620 or more??

 

It's not about a reversal or not, it's about the right entry...

 

Forecast: predict or estimate. it does not mean sure shot.

It can be taken as a reference but trade should not be blindly based on it.

Without SL is dangerous. Just felt to make this point known to you. have lost a lot because didn't respect the Sl.

The forecast will surely be achieved but probably by then, we may not be able to hold the trade due to m2m losses.

 

Once the forecast took 9 days some time it may take 19 days then what? CE premium decay will be our enemy, not the market.

don't forget the delta its ur enemy when options are held more than 3 days in spite of mkt being at same place u get loss in options.

 

 

 

 

Balan Draj at 05:08 PM - Sep 11, 2018 ( )

STILL HAVING CONFIDENCE SO HOLDING CALL TO MEET 11600... .. WHOEVER TELL ANYTHING MARKET WILL REVERSE..... WILL HOLD TILL EXPIRY..... 

Balan Draj at 06:40 AM - Sep 10, 2018 ( )

SIRJI GOOD MORNING & GOOD WEEK... .NOTED THE FORECAST..  

Kripakar Kumble at 01:22 AM - Sep 10, 2018 ( )

Forecast as on EOD -    7-Sep-2018:

 



Kripakar Kumble at 03:22 PM - Sep 08, 2018 ( )

Balan ji

Thanks for your post.

I don't trade in options. Though I know the basics of options, I am zero in that.

Sorry...may not be able to help u

Balan Draj at 01:25 PM - Sep 08, 2018 ( )

SIRJI...  AS I AM DOING ONLY CALL PUT TRADING BCOS OF LOW CAPITAL .. .. HOW TO TRADE BEST? 

Sheks M at 07:21 AM - Sep 08, 2018 ( )

Thank you  KKji

All the best

Kripakar Kumble at 09:26 PM - Sep 07, 2018 ( )

Thank you Sheik  ji...

but dont go by todays close.  It is just a coincidence. 

There are days where nifty went in opposite direction  and that too significantly higher/lower  in opposite direction.

Kripakar Kumble at 09:09 PM - Sep 07, 2018 ( )

Update as on EOD 7-Sept-2018 :



Sheks M at 08:52 PM - Sep 07, 2018 ( )

congrats .... bingo level....

You may please explain ur method once more add it to the main post so that others can read and follow ....

 

Kripakar Kumble at 07:32 PM - Sep 07, 2018 ( )

Yes Balan ji

Entry should be 30/40 points below or above the forecast day close value for Buy or Sell respectively.

Stop should be beyond this entry point.

One more forecast I will post. That makes 10 forecasts. Will know where this system stands...

 

 

Balan Draj at 06:54 PM - Sep 07, 2018 ( )

SIRJI. NIFTY TODAY CLOSED EXACTLY AT THE POINT WHICH YOU MENTIONED... ONLY THING WE SHOULD ENTER IN AN LOW POINT SO THAT WE CAN GET THE MAXIMUM .... 

ANYWAY .... .THOSE FOLLOWING THIS THREAD CAN GET GOOD BENEFIT... .INCLUDING MYSELF.. THANKS A LOT...  

Balan Draj at 02:54 PM - Sep 07, 2018 ( )

JUST JOKING.... 

Balan Draj at 02:54 PM - Sep 07, 2018 ( )

SIRJI AGAIN UR FORMULA WORKED.  .. .CAN YOU SELL THE PATENT?. .... 

Kripakar Kumble at 02:49 PM - Sep 07, 2018 ( )

Forecast 11589 reached...

Kripakar Kumble at 10:54 AM - Sep 07, 2018 ( )

11565.15 high so far...

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