Kripakar kumble
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NIFTY FORECAST - FORTNIGHTLY

Kripakar Kumble at 06:55 PM - Jul 22, 2018 ( ) Views: 10,404

12 9

Hi friends..

This is an attempt to forecast nifty  for period of next  15 to 25 days.

Don’t ask me the method of this forecast.  It is all my own crude methods.

I have back tested this and found that the results are good enough. 

Therefore putting it for observation.

Please note that  forecast  will be on daily basis.  However,  on many days  the forecasted value may be very closer to current day close of nifty.  Such forecasts may be ignored. 

When to trade ?

Ideally,  only when the difference between the current close and forecasted value is more than 50 points (or significantly higher),  then there is fair chance of trade.

On back testing we found,   the  Number of days  and the probability of achieving forecasted value (in %) are as below :

No. of days 3 5 10 15
Forecast probability % 61 75 82 85

 

Ie.  Chance of achieving the forecast value within 5 days  is nearly 75%

      Chance of achieving the forecast value within 15 days  is nearly 85%

 

Stop loss is according to the loss bearing capacity.

Lets see how it goes… Wait for the forecast…

Happy trading..

 

Disclaimer : 

This post is for observation/study purpose only and not a trading recommendation for anybody.

Investment is stock market is risky as market dynamics can change at any time.   Views expressed here are  my personal view only  not a trading recommendation to anybody.  Past performance doesnt guarantee future success. Traders have to study and take their own decision before entering into trade.  I am not liable for any profit or loss which may arise  because of using my personal views blindly.   I may or may not have positions in  Stocks or Nifty. 

 


From: Kripakar kumble at 09:20 PM - Jul 25, 2018( )


Basis the back tested data, we noticed that the wrong forecasts so far were maximum 4 days continuously
From: Kripakar kumble at 04:24 PM - Aug 08, 2018( )


This thread will be closed for some time...


From: Kripakar kumble at 09:24 PM - Sep 07, 2018( )


Hi friends..

as per request,  posting once again.

As mentioned above,  this is an attempt to forecast NIFTY (spot)  for a period of next 15/20 trading days.  This forecast will give an idea where nifty can reach within next 15 days with a fair degree of confidence.   

This  forecast may be useful if used with other set of tools or methods available to make a  trading strategy .

This is not a 100% sure shot  forecast.  Success rate is approximately 85% (with a horizon of 15 days).

In some cases,  forecast may be achieved on the very next day  or within 3 to 5 days.  In some cases one may have to wait for 10 days or  more than 10 trading days...  

How to use it ?

Whenever a forecast is given (at the end of day),   if the forecast is on the higher side,   then on the following day  or thereafter,  one can enter  a BUY trade approximately 30/40 points below the CLOSE  or significantly below the CLOSE  of forecasting day.

Similarly,  if the forecast is on the lower side,  then  on the following day  or thereafter,   one can enter SELL trade approximately 30/40 points above the CLOSE  or significantly above the CLOSE of forecasting day.

In either case,  a stop loss is must according to the capacity.


(1 to 20 out of 123) - Latest Replies on Top | First | << Previous | Next >> | Last |
Sreenivasarao B at 01:45 PM - May 24, 2019 ( )

Dear Kripakar Kumble,

Your forecast achieved today itself.

Moses Samuel at 01:42 PM - May 24, 2019 ( )

its completed

Thanx

 

Kripakar Kumble at 11:10 AM - May 24, 2019 ( )

forecast no 13    -  dt 23/5/2019

 

NIFTY  SPOT     -   11779

 

Kripakar Kumble at 11:21 AM - May 24, 2019 ( )



Kripakar Kumble at 11:10 AM - May 24, 2019 ( )

forecast no 13    -  dt 23/5/2019

 

NIFTY  SPOT     -   11779

 

Kripakar Kumble at 10:44 PM - Apr 25, 2019 ( )

Aayurda  ji

No significant forecast so far.

Whenever i get significant change in forecast value,  i will  definitely post

thanks

Happy  trading

Aayurda Mali at 10:40 PM - Apr 25, 2019 ( )

K k sir waiting for updates for this thread 

Aayurda Mali at 09:45 AM - Apr 23, 2019 ( )

Eagerly waiting

Aayurda Mali at 10:24 AM - Apr 22, 2019 ( )

thanks sir your reply . but not able to get any chance . good going pl. keep it up 

Kripakar Kumble at 10:04 AM - Apr 22, 2019 ( )

Thank you Balan ji  &  Srnivas ji

 

Sreenivasarao B at 09:50 AM - Apr 22, 2019 ( )

Dear Kripakar Kumble,

Sir, your forecast achieved in 15 minutes today.

Kripakar Kumble at 10:16 PM - Apr 21, 2019 ( )

Hi Aayurda Mali ji

The next forecast for Nifty (spot) stands at 11679

Let's see how it goes

Balan Draj at 11:31 PM - Apr 21, 2019 ( )

THANKING YOU....WILL GO ALONG WITH 11500 PE OF 2ND MAY

Kripakar Kumble at 10:16 PM - Apr 21, 2019 ( )

Hi Aayurda Mali ji

The next forecast for Nifty (spot) stands at 11679

Let's see how it goes

Kripakar Kumble at 10:16 PM - Apr 21, 2019 ( )

Hi Aayurda Mali ji

The next forecast for Nifty (spot) stands at 11679

Let's see how it goes

Aayurda Mali at 10:39 AM - Apr 21, 2019 ( )

k k sir waitung for next updates eagerly

Aayurda Mali at 10:26 AM - Apr 18, 2019 ( )

sir any updates about this 

Aayurda Mali at 03:27 PM - Apr 16, 2019 ( )

Sir it is followed by us . And it is most appropriate. Please continue  for next target 

Varun Kochhar at 02:25 PM - Apr 16, 2019 ( )

Yes sir you are right. Everybody is selfish here. Nobody appreciates hard work. Just give them 1 SL call and everybody would come out crawling from everywhere.

Kripakar Kumble at 01:51 PM - Apr 16, 2019 ( )

Nobody observed this it seems.

Waste of time..

Kripakar Kumble at 10:15 AM - Apr 16, 2019 ( )

11777....  target achieved....

Kripakar Kumble at 09:59 AM - Apr 16, 2019 ( )

11775.50 ......

Kripakar Kumble at 12:09 PM - Apr 10, 2019 ( )

Hi friends...

Starting one more trial for  this strategy just for observation

As on End of day yesterday  Forecast for next 15 days is 11777

hope this time it goes well

Just observing.

Kripakar Kumble at 09:46 AM - Apr 16, 2019 ( )

How is the josh...??

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