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anil vaidya here on Bharti Airtel
| From : Anil Vaidya at 08:03 PM - Oct 14, 2009 ( ) |
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it is certain it will cross 300 and crossover will take to 350 onwards
Times change and with change in time the market change...with change in Markets the sentiments change.. The per second billing war bagan sometime back but somethings to consider. The per/sec is within the network this means no other network connection charges. the calls made within the network does not require any additional charges of routing. The calls/per sec to other network is capped at Rs1.2 it also has additional rental attached to it. Though the per sec billing has been in news with the market but the conversion has been minimal. Bharti has a customer of around 110 crore+ this will mean the network is widespread. Bharti receive the interconection charges when it receives a call from another network user. Bharti has its market covered in the Broadband and also in the set top box arena. Yes the Profit margins will shrink no doubts about it but for a Company like Bharti it does not matter if the profits decline by 2-3 hundred crores what matters is the long term aspect
the argument on 1paise per second is affecting margins is crap, currently 50paise per minute and if allowed to talk at one paise per secong you are billing 60 pasie per min and no one can talk with in few seconds using INDIAN LANGUAGE!
Those who ignore the negative sentiment crept into the telecome sector, will repent. The Airtel is targeted because of the same reason that it is the No:1 operator in the telecom sector. It is a simple calculation, that how much revenue downgrade will happen to Bharti Airtel, as the number of subscribers are available in public domain. There is a twin threat to Airtel, one is the subscriber growth leadership for Airtel is lost for the last two months. Airtel never acted and took any corrective measures to arrest the subscriber churnout. Secondone is that, suppose if Airtel act on the price war decide to offer better pricing or equal to the pricing offered by DoCoMo/Aircel, Bharati Airtel is going to loose at least Rs.100/-per customer. And if he doesn`t act on the pricing front, customer has all the freedom to use another SIM card/Phone to make calls(1ps/sec) and customer will remain with Bharati, but with revenue, because to receive call you have to pay Bharti only a bare minimum. HERE CUSTOMER IS THE KING. there will be serious rerating for this particular stock along with others. You can also do your homework, subscriber numbers are available on TRAI website. Make a study of your own mobile calls as to what is the average seconds you talk and see how much you are saving, if the billing is based on 1ps/sec. My study shows that avg second I talk is 30 to 35 secs. More over, remember that to get one rupee, the needle has to take a full circle and plus another 40secs, if the biling is 1ps/Sec pulse. (40% straight loss on Rs.1/-,without calculating call drops. Call drops will add only pain to revenue.)
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