Siddharth V
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OBSERVATION ON NIFTY OI & PCR - SIDDHARTH

Siddharth V at 10:21 PM - Dec 09, 2013 ( ) Views: 5,408

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A look at today's Nifty OI suggests that the trend is bullish. There has been an Increase in OI with Increase in Price confirming the Uptrend.

However, the Put / Call Ratio has shown a sharp increase. It stands at 1.04 as against 0.79 on Friday. This implies that Puts have risen significantly in the market compared to Calls.

The Derivatives analysis has once again shown its might over Technical Analysis. A few days ago, around expiry, the derivatives data was giving BUY signal as against a Sell indication on the charts.

Though there could be some more room for a rise in price, I would advise longers to exit long positions on every rise and Go Short at higher levels with Stop Loss above today's high.

Daywise Turnover

Dec 2013
Date Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total
No. of contracts Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of contracts Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of contracts Turnover 
(Rs. cr.)
Put CallRatio No. of contracts Notional Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
Put CallRatio No. of contracts Turnover 
(Rs. cr.)
Put CallRatio
02-Dec-2013 272469 8306.31 509742 14524.45 1708369 53408.06 0.86 195208 5707.02 0.53 2685788 81945.85 0.82
03-Dec-2013 249121 7557.23 504390 14466.78 1628554 50818.81 1.10 196548 5724.58 0.52 2578613 78567.39 1.02
04-Dec-2013 333944 10111.63 552250 15213.43 2157598 67471.32 0.93 224492 6203.42 0.55 3268284 98999.80 0.89
05-Dec-2013 414553 12809.15 624909 17560.59 2617556 82242.48 0.99 222791 6354.54 0.55 3879809 118966.76 0.94
06-Dec-2013 274781 8466.7 508828 14465.39 2136055 67497.35 0.82 207741 5966.43 0.52 3127405 96395.87 0.79
09-Dec-2013 438736 13878.04 571309 16579.18 3726454 118047.09 1.07 253382 7347.95 0.64 4989881 155852.25 1.04


From: Siddharth V at 10:24 PM - Dec 09, 2013( )


As I am unable to post the data table, I am giving below the link thereof...

http://www.nseindia.com/content/fo/fo_dailyturnover.htm



From: Siddharth V at 01:07 AM - Dec 10, 2013( )


TATASTEEL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SHORT CANDIDATE FOR 10TH DEC....


(1 to 20 out of 69) - Latest Replies on Top | First | << Previous | Next >> | Last |
Subrahmanyam Y at 10:09 PM - May 09, 2014 ( )

if you could have alerted by today morning it is very benifitical ..........but today also PCR is decresed .but nifty up what is the meaning?

Siddharth V at 07:46 PM - May 09, 2014 ( )

Take a look at the Put Call Ratio this month :

Daywise Turnover

May 2014
Date Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total
No. of contracts Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of contracts Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
No. of contracts Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
Put CallRatio No. of contracts Notional Turnover
(Rs. cr.)
Put CallRatio No. of contracts Turnover 
(Rs. cr.)
Put CallRatio
02-May-2014 253342 8479.28 542486 17147.86 889192 30238.45 1.21 176864 5860.19 0.52 1862117 61725.77 1.06
05-May-2014 303819 10155.82 590018 18818.59 1033037 35326.86 1.05 164610 5456.24 0.46 2091484 69757.52 0.95
06-May-2014 205457 7011.31 482978 15006.69 809884 28031.08 0.75 142666 4615.22 0.44 1640985 54664.30 0.70
07-May-2014 308008 10254.59 579542 18285.76 983539 34101.21 0.70 169241 5601.34 0.49 2040330 68242.90 0.66
08-May-2014 286252 9500.96 503386 15751.33 995396 34431.03 0.67 161297 5237.45 0.46 1946331 64920.77 0.64
09-May-2014 640788 21796.79 833241 27499.45 2768228 98065.48 0.49 248557 8422.09 0.39 4490814 155783.81 0.48

Those who have been following this thread would have been in a correct position to identify the Trend and go Long on every decline.

The PC Ratio has declined daily this month and has fallen sharply from 1.06 on 2nd May to 0.48 today.

Hope members are benefitting from this thread....

Archana Jain at 12:53 PM - Jan 10, 2014 ( )

Would appreciate if you re-start this thread as some of us are benefitted from this thread / your analysis!!

Vivek Nayak at 08:18 PM - Dec 19, 2013 ( )

Thanx Siddharth bhai for the update. Highly appreciated.

Siddharth V at 08:16 PM - Dec 19, 2013 ( )

THERE IS A DECREASE IN OPEN INTEREST WITH DECREASE IN PRICE TODAY INDICATING FURTHER BEARISHNESS....

 

FURTHER, THE INCREASE IN PUT CALL RATIO SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY FROM YESTERDAY'S LEVELS CONFIRM THE BEARISH TREND FOR NOW....

Siddharth V at 01:21 AM - Dec 19, 2013 ( )
Replied for :- OBSERVATION ON NIFTY OI & PCR - SIDDHARTH ( General Discussion )
at 10:14 PM - Dec 11, 2013 (7 days ago)

 

Today again there was an Increase in Open Interest coupled with Decrease in Price which is a bearish sign. However, the Put Call ratio improved from 0.96 yesterday to 0.91 today. 

Thus once again we can see Mixed signals and indecisiveness from the OI and Put Call data.

I wish to reiterate that Markets are likely to trade flat ahead of RBI Policy meeting on 13th Dec. Though the other indicators suggest a short term Uptrend for the markets, all will depend on the outcome of the RBI Meeting. The Inflation risk is very much alive which may compel the RBI to sound hawkish in its policy announcement. However, we may not see rate hikes atleast in the near term.

Nifty Spot closed at 6307.90 just around the resistance level of 6305 given earlier. The next resistance levels for Nifty Spot are at 6335, 6375 and then at 6440, whereas supports would be seen at 6275-6280, 6240 and 6215....

 

AS I HAD MENTIONED ABOVE, WE DID NOT SEE ANY CHANGE IN RATES BY RBI....

Ambarish Hindocha at 03:58 PM - Dec 13, 2013 ( )
From : Ambarish Hindocha at 06:27 PM - Apr 27, 2013 8 months ago )

Open Interest Interpretation

Sr.No.

Price

Volume

Open  Interest

Remarks/conclusion

1.

+

+

+

Long buildup

2.

-

+

+

Short buildup

3.

+

  +/-

-

Short covering

4.

-

+

-

Long unwinding

5.

-

-

+

Accumulation

6.

-

-

-

Profit booking

We all have been observing that since last 2-4 months,CE/PE of particular stocks(Like ONGC,R-com),Bank nifty 12100 CE has made "Hanuman Jump"in their value.Bank Nifty 12100 CE which was at Rs.6.45 on 10.04.2013,has reached to 217.50 on 18.04.2013.This is nothing but the miracle of chart & true interpretation of open interest data.If we can able to do it at right time,for us it may be YE HI HAI RIGHT CHOICE BABY AAHA! So,please try for it.(some put of bank nifty,data with trend is ready for breakout.

Option experts please share your view.Jay SaiRam.


 

Chintan Savla at 03:19 PM - Dec 13, 2013 ( )

HI siddharthji....

How about buying a 6200 CE and PE of nifty after observing OI data , VIX and PCR data for today???? 

The pair is available for around 148/-

Archana Jain at 11:31 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

Im honored siddharth!!I Just added my limited knowledge to your ocean .

It also gives me immense pleasure to see that you are doing a great job.

May u Stand tall on knowledge and your words echo for centuries.

 

God bless.

 

 

 

 

Siddharth V at 10:57 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

LINKS FOR TRACKING OPEN INTEREST AND PRICE CHANGES OF INDICES & STOCKS:

 

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/fno/marketstats/options/oi_inc_p_inc/homebody.php?opttopic=allfut&optinst=allfut&sel_mth=all&sort_order=0

 

http://investmentguruindia.com/Derivatives_coi_analysis.aspx


YOU CAN TRACK LIVE DATA DURING MARKET HOURS BY REFRESHING THE PAGE....

Subrahmanyam Y at 10:31 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

After seeing Infaltion data ......banking stocks should correct ..............

 Siddharth

which  banking stocks are looking weak ??????????????????/ i think 10-15% correction can be seen in all banking stocks ............please share if you find any ..............

Harman Preet at 10:10 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

Sir can you plz share link to kow the OI and PCR for stocks/banknifty etc

Siddharth V at 08:55 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

Thanks Archana for your valuable contribution....

Archana Jain at 08:38 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

The OI isnt enuff as it can be " writing " also .Sometimes / Mostly Calls & Puts are written showin High OI.

So if one is analysing do not forget to check the prices of Puts & Calls.

 

As in the last quarter when sbin showed NPA higher than the previous quarter , Sbin continued its uptrend with high OI in puts.


So from 1650 (Sbin) most of the Puts became 0.

 

So always dont forget to check the prices.

 

This will be manipulated and has to be manipulated as cant imagine a country where all the people in the country "ONLY" making profits.

 

Always understand that someones gain is someones loss.

Siddharth V at 08:14 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

      Price                Volume             Open Interest                 Market ( Interpretation )

1.   Rising               Up                   Up                                 Continued Uptrend

2.   Rising             Up                   Down                            Distribution ( Common @ Significant Mkt Top )

3.   Rising               Down              Down                              Price will retrace lower in near future ( Reversetrend Soon )

4.   Rising               Down              Up                                  Short Buildup

5.   Falling              Up                   Up                                 Continued Downtrend

6.   Falling              Up                   Down                             Short Covering

7.   Falling            Down              Up                                  Accumulation ( Common @ Significant Bottom )

8.   Falling              Down              Down                             Price will retrace higher in near future ( Reverse trend Soon )

Siddharth V at 08:09 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

How to find Market Range for Short term :


Upper range: Strike price of the call option having highest open interest out of all call option for that instrument.


Lower range: Strike price of the put option having highest open interest out of all put option for that instrument.


Lets understand this with an example:


Nifty 6400 call option has highest open interest in all nifty call option, so higher range for nifty future in short term is 6400.


Nifty 6100 put option has highest open interest when compared with all nifty put options, hence lower range for nifty future in short term is 6100.

L Srinivas at 08:01 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

EXCELLENT SERVICE TO MUDRAA  FAMILY

Chakravarthy Snvs at 07:53 PM - Dec 12, 2013 ( )

nse pcr

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