what i was trying to pointed out was , market can remain a lot irrational longer than we can remain solvent.And this is the challenge every one facing in the market..I wish to post the same chart of natarajan and try to explain it, please keep in mind this is just for sharing thoughts and no way to challenge the findings.So please take my argument in that sense only.
i marked both the RSI and STOCHASTIC...
Now lets us take the same chart posted i marked few area in that chart in MACD and stochastic.
see the time period between july 15 -22, when we see in chart,it look so small, but when you are selling the stock seeing cross over in the signal line, what you actually getting is a down move for a day..i marked on the top (dated july 15).Now just imagine you are trading on nov 15 and in front of you the chart visible till nov 15 only .Now ,you dont know what is in store for 16 till 22 right?..Do you see any big change in stochastic? nothing visible.but watch the nifty movement ,it start to move up from 5900 till 6050.What you see in stochastic? Not much move.Here what you are seeing is a flat cross over happening, So by seeing that ,you cant judge the market (now you can , after seeing the full picture)
watch october 30 which i already marked,and see the nifty levels.Same happend in that region too..
from october 30 till 14 october watch the MACD and nifty move, which is moving up while the MACD is just flat.
So this is the reason i said it is a lagging indicator and we cant trust it fully.So let me repeat , i dont mean to offend Natarajan or his findings..
Now dear Rohan,
here what other indicators we can use? Offcourse the EMA cross over give us a good clue.But more than above all, one need to learn the candle stick pattern.Because it is the villain or the front runner who create these moves ..So we need to spot that first and use the lagging indicators to confirm it later.This is my personal view, others are disagree with me.
Now choosing the time frame is very important to judge these moves..Else most of the time we get caught in wrong foot..
This is the reason, why many are giving live calls in mudraa and update it after 4 or 5 hours later giving lot of excuses
else post so wonderful chart in the evening time and try to catch the prey from mudraa and show the wonderful chance of making money.But they cant do it in real market with 10 to 20 minutes interval.Why ? because they get caught in wrong foot and burn their fingers..Very few dare to do it in mudraa...let me repeat very few...they have confidence in their reading..May be they can go wrong, But they show that courage.Others just post wonderful chart and show the profit figures and try all trick to attract those who dont have any idea about it through their inbox.Else what they do is give you two chances and which ever way market move, they says it worked, and it is really magic, they never bother to say what they did when the market kiss the lower level they mentioned and got trapped or not..
few days before one gentlman posted in my thread, as long as leenaji remain bearish i am keeping my long that time nifty was around 6330 levels, So i asked that gentlman, will you update when you sell it ?then he said when i say bullish he sell it..Now nifty almost 6140, i didnt see him later..so the drop of 200 point is not visible in his radar now.This is how many play the tricks when the market move above they says i am long and when the market falls they says they are short, but they dont update it.To support their views, they post some chart .many diappear from the scene and try to know the pulse of the public and work like a public relation officers or PR and they play the role to confuse the traders and trying to keep traders in wrong foot.Most of these visible when we check the chart, but we realise the objective only after two days.
i am saying all these so open only because we should be vigilant in the market and dont beleive anything blind .It is not so easy to make money from this market..The moment public start to beleive it is about to work out and shift the position, the PR agents able to spot it and behind the curtain they plant the next news to confuse us and take us out from the trading ring.
Now dont misunderstood what i said above is about the thread owner,He showed a simple methord and this is very helpful to those who follow the market in medium term.I was talking about those who claim victory and show profit figures only after market close and says i am long , i am short etc...and they post such things only in the late market hours.So it is so easy to know their objective.
So what i was trying to say here is , there is no short cut in market, we have to learn the candle formation, the pattern formation and confirmation to judge the market.It is a combination of all these and you can use the lagging indicators to support it..
Let me repeat, i mentioned few negative remarks here which have no connection with this thread owner i said the things in general to explain the fact and support what i exactly explained above.
From : Rohan Patel
at 12:19 PM - Nov 10, 2013 ( 10 minutes ago )
respected leena Madam...
mr. natarajan just said to use it for the next day trade direction.
and i and all the fellows in this thread will feel like blessed by the god if u could tell use the other indicatores u mentioned in ur post which u suggested to use with these indicators.
and plz explain lill how to mingle those with natrajans stratagy.
thanks for ur valuable time and guidline...