Trading activity on any exxchange is a two sided auction process. Understanding of this auction process is key in suscessfull trading. Market profile is a different arrangemet of price/volume and time data. Everyone is familiar with candlestick and other type of charts. The representation of market generated data in market profile format helps better in understanding the auction process. Here I am discussing the concepts of market profile and markets, this will help you in improving your market understanding and trading results. After this I am planning to show how to trade with this information realtime.
Now look at the chart below. It is a market profile chart of nifty futures for 3 days. each 30 minute period is represented by the letters A,B,C,D etc. The green area is called the value area. It is where 70% of transactions took place, where two sided autions took place during the day as buyers and sellers agreed on price. The single letters at the bottom of the third day in picture is called buying tail. Note the single lettere prints K at the bottom of the profile. Here buyers overwhelmed sellers and and excess low is formed. Selling tails also form in the same manner. The red lettered band in the middle of the value area is called point of control. It is where price spend more time during the trading session.
Now let us examine the 3 profile in picture. On the first day Value area was formed towards the upper part of the range and we say the value area is skewed upward. In the second profile, note that the value area is skewed upward but it is placed above the previous day's value area. This indicates that on the second day traders agreed on a higher level as value. But note the profile again, towards close, price break down below the value area and sold off rapidly, it went through the previous days value area rapidly. This is indicatin that there was some change in sentiment and as new information entered the market and the market is seeking new levels where it can find value, in this istance it is seeking value at lower levels. On the next day, market opened near the bottom of the previus day and thereafter formed value for the day. The process of value formation begins with a rapid vertical move and then two sided trading (trading range). The second image show the 30 minute bars that forms the mrket profile chart above.
This opening post just gives an overview of market profile. In the next post I will explain how the market profile can be used to understand the auction process aka market understanding and then how to trade with this information.
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See how it turned into sideways trading, we made a short near 262.40, but it does not turned into a big down move, and later we infered it is turning to sideways trading and exited, about 1.5/2 point profit is made in this trade.
Just follow what the market is doing, we can't force the market to do what we expect. Now we have an open picure confirmed, we look forward to next developemnt and act when opportunity comes.
Here is the context and preperation for tuesday - DLF cash
Daily charts confirms a swing low on firday. Now todays Value area is important reference area for tuesday open together with the open bias. If open is strong expect trading in the higer value area. if open breaks below value area, then expect trading between the area of lower value area and today value area. The open can give clues to what is expected on monday.
So far some concepts to understand the auction process is discussed. Now this post is on how to use this information in developing trading strategy.
It starts with analysing the market context with weekly and daily charts. DLF was in a nice up trend for quite some time earlier. It ended the uptrend and turned into sideways trading (bracketing) and the last 3 days not including today where down trend. The blue box shows the bracket and the red box shows the down trend, here down trend is simply defined as daily charts making lower low and not making higher high. However note that on friday it held the recent swing low, red support lin in chart.
Now examine the market profile chart for more details. Froday formed a nice balance below thursday low, it is down bias. However towards close it broke above this value and pulled bach into the value area at close. In the process it formed a nice price rejection at days low. This happens at a previous swing low, so we are concerned about the continuation of down trend today, but all indiactions point to weakness.
Now we examine today's open, note the first bar, it is an open drive and it went up by 3+ pints in the fist 5 minutes and open = low, if u obsever lower time frame charts, the up move is swift and it never traded back towards the bottom of this 3+point range. This information negates the possibility of continuation of down trend, rather odds favour an upward move in todays early session. Note that price broke above friday higha nd remainde within thursdays range. It continued to trade about an hour sideways near the top of todays open range, this indicates lack of selling pressure at this level, taking the market context into account(it is bouncing from a swinf low). So long trades can be placed during this time placing a stop loss below today open. Target is thursday value area high 260.30 This makes a 2.5-3 point risk and 6 point reward trading opportunity. But if the rotations after open coninue till noon, then another scenario may develop in which those who are long in the morning will get trapped and they will neutralise the long trade which will result in a down move, but after one hour of rotations, it moved up sonsisteltly towards the target.
Kumbleji, It is different from traditional technical analysis, Market profile, best source is James dalton books, the terminolagy is quite different, and very difficult to grasp. I think the term reference point is confusing u, just take it as resistance support, but remember that it is not traditinal TA support/resistance. If u point out, I can explain them in more detail.
Open rejection reversal ia similar to open test drive but usually the rejection and reversal comes after some development in the direction of open. In the chart below, note that price traded down for some time, but it eventually got rejected fro previous day low and reversed. Usually this rejection reversal also happens at some reference point.
In open rotations price trades up and down through the open many time immediately after open. This type of open lacks any directional conviction. Depending on the relatiove location of the open, trading strategis t trade this type of open can be developed. In the image below see how price trades up and down through the opening rate many times after open, this type of open lacks directional conviction at market open. However in the image, eventually price got rejected from the low and a directional move emerged later, but thats another story
Ok, what does it tests, it may be the opening price or a nearby reference point, and buyers/sellers emerge fro that reference point and drives the price. When we analyse this with market context and indentify this development immediately after market open, good assymmetric opportunity is there. The key in identifyin this type of open is immediate price rejection from the reference point it tets.
Open drive, open test drive, open rejection reverse and open rotations
Open Direve. It is a strong directional move at market open and it continues never returning to the open. This sort of open has a strong directional conviction for the day. However the relative position of the open and market context is important in analysing the possibility of open drive leading to the whole day develop as a strong directional move.
In the above chart two open drives are shown, note that price never returned to test the open again. Identifying the open drive at the early stages of market open is important in taking advantage of this type of open. I will discuss how to identify open type at market open after completing the 4 open types.
So what's the importance of Tails ? In the eariler post we had seen a nice selling tail, what information it carries, inventory imbalance at that level. Ok let us examine market development during that day. It traded down, formed value lower and towards close it break below the value and closed near low of the day. The picture below shows the next day, the suggestion of strong sellers continued for the next day and trend was down for the next day also, but this may not be the case always, next day open is important information for arriving at early bias for the day.
In the next post I am planning to cover different types of open.
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