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short term trend reversal identification
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Share it on FacebookOne more simple way to identiy a short trend reversal...
1) if today's HIGH is less than yesterdays OPEN, then short term trend is reversed to DOWN
2) if today's LOW is greater than yesterdays HIGH, then short term trend is reversed to UP.
this may not be 100% true always but at least 85% true...
check this...
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29-Mar-12 |
5145.95 |
5194.30 |
5135.95 |
5178.55 |
|
30-Mar-12 |
5206.60 |
5307.10 |
5203.65 |
5295.55 |
|
2-Apr-12 |
5296.35 |
5331.55 |
5278.80 |
5317.90 |
|
3-Apr-12 |
5353.20 |
5378.75 |
5344.45 |
5358.50 |
|
4-Apr-12 |
5328.65 |
5338.40 |
5305.30 |
5322.90 |
|
9-Apr-12 |
5282.50 |
5287.90 |
5228.00 |
5234.40 |
|
10-Apr-12 |
5254.10 |
5255.80 |
5211.85 |
5243.60 |
|
11-Apr-12 |
5209.45 |
5263.65 |
5190.80 |
5226.85 |
|
12-Apr-12 |
5246.75 |
5290.60 |
5246.75 |
5276.85 |
|
13-Apr-12 |
5255.70 |
5306.75 |
5185.40 |
5207.45 |
Basis this theory, on 30th march 2012, the low is 5203.65 which is greater than previous days(29/3/12) high of 5194.30. Therefore trend was reversed to UP.
Similarly on 4/4/12, the high is 5338.40 which is less than previous days (3/4/12) open 5353.20. Therefore the trend is reversed to DOWN.
At the moment the trend is down.
Now if we compare the last two days figures;
If the trend has to be reversed to UP, then tomorrows low should be more than 5306.75 which means that there should be huge gap up opening which doesn’t look possible at the moment. So it may take a day or two for clear confirmation of reversal of trend as per this method.
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today`s high 5232.35 is less than yesterday`s i.e. 23/04/2012 open 5277.40
so still trande is down.
Yes bipin ji....
and nifty is already almost 90 points down now.......
Today.....till now nifty has not crossed above 5314 (spot). The high today so far is 5310.55 (spot).
If nifty cross 5314 by closing today, it is good. Otherwise short term trend is reversed to DOWN
The open high low close of nifty in last two days are as follows :
| 19-Apr-12 | 5320.60 | 5342.45 | 5291.30 | 5332.40 |
| 20-Apr-12 | 5313.95 | 5336.15 | 5245.45 | 5290.85 |
monday, throught the day if nifty fail to cross above 5314, that means short term trend is reversed to DOWN.
otherwise, short term uptrend is still alive though it is not fully confirmed.
kk sir,
today's high of spot nifty is 5320.65 is less tha yesterday's open 5320.70.
so as per theory short term trend is down.
am i right sir ??
Bipin ji
trend is not turned down. But the uptrend is not fully confirmed as per this method.
For the trend to turn down, then todays high should be less than yesterdays open.
kk sir,
today low 5293.45.
yesterday high 5298.20.
today low breaks yesteday's high, so trend is turned to down.
am i right ??
Nifty today opened at 5320.70 and the low of today as of now is 5320.70 which is higher than yesterday's high 5298.20.
Therefore it is a sign of short term trend reversal to UP if nifty doesnt fall below 5298.20 throughout today.
Rajesh ji...
normally a short term trend reversal happens, when today low is higher than yesterdays high.
But if you look at todays nifty figures so far, then low of nifty is 5208.35 which is lower than yesterdays high 5233.50.
Therefore as per this method, there is no cofirmation of trend reversal yet. But this is not the only method to identify trend reversal. There are many methods to identify trend reversals. This is just a simple method so that one can understand easily. Thats it
Today 16/4/2012, nifty O H L C values are 5190.60 5233.50 5183.50 5233.25
Since today high is 5233.50, for the short term trend to reverse to UP, what we need is tomorrow a gap up opening and tomorrows low should stay above 5233.50.
If this happens then short term trend will be reversed to UP.
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