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Possible Road Map of nifty , A wild Guess - Subbu
| From : Subramanian J at 11:46 PM - Feb 03, 2012 ( ) |
Share it on FacebookGreetings .,
Today i'm going to give u all a Big task of reading all my craps
so pls dont read this if u feel sleepy 
Before proceeding wish to refer few of my old post given @ various times with the same kinda wild guess
with some specific pattern devellpments .,
By August 2009 , whn nifty was arnd 4500 levels and still thr were uncertanity of mkt and economy ,i made one post with the same title with interesting pattern. it was so nice tht moved and hit 6300 as per the expectations after that.
Below is the post
http://www.mudraa.com/trading/14303/0/possible-road-map-of-nifty-a-wild-guess-subbu.html
December 2009 Post ,
http://www.mudraa.com/trading/33598/0/buy-for-6300-and-bye-for-4500-subbu.html
Again comming with an interesting Pattern -- Nifty - Possible Road Map - A Wild Guess 2012
I'm seeing a Cup & Handle kinda Pattern in the making ,Though its just a wild Guess , But yet Technically its possible.
Other Factors which are supporting the Bullish View ---
After long time (about 5 months) nifty sustaining and trading abv 5 and 20 ema. And another Strong monthly closing above 5 ema will be the first signal
After the bearish 5,20 crossover in nov last year , 5 ema started moving up and nearing the 20 ema line. So a bullish 5,20 crossover chances are high and once its happnd in monthly chart , thn we can take it as a strong bullish reversal.
For dow future so far 12800 acted as a very strong hurdle and its able to break it today. Next and Immediate Hurdle comes arnd 13000-13200 and once its cleared ,we can consider as a negation of the medium term bearishness.
Do remember this isnt a short term view and i'm just guessing a possiblity along with other technical factors .
Within this pattern we may see lot of rally and correction and this is a long term projection
so the conclusion is
If the pattern is supposed to be real and if it breaks out , then the Breakout tgt comes roughly 7800-8200
Given below weekly and monthly charts.
Monthly ---
Weekly ---
Comments are welcomed even criticism also :P
Cheers .,
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Hi subbuji..... I hav kept my tgt at 9500-700 levels...... Lets see....
Subbuji,
I think , Its time now for your specific comments and guidance for further movement of nifty (Market). You have guided us the trend of the nifty, which is proved to be as per your tec-analysis. Pls also share various levels for further reference.
Just follow only one thing in the market.
Follow the trend without bothering about all the technical parameters. Because very soon the technical parameters will follow the market.
Use your own knowledge before believing anyone blindly. Because it's your money and you know the true value of your investment.
Pls and I repeat pls dont get distracted by any prediction . Respect them but dont over react to them. Trust u understand. My best wishes.
perfect comments Dada, Only during the rallies only we can hear about 6000-7000-8000 nifty..
Many calls have gone haywire.Many predictions have gone wrong and market has changed the direction even before chartists and analshits could open their eyes..Charts are some possibilities which may or may not work.Now the current rally is liquidity driven. If its based on fundamentals of economy why it ws quoting around 4500 levels before one month? which chart predicted fall from 6357 in 2008 and how many charts warned to enron saga or satyam saga? in 2008 i had seen captains of industries and many market participants arguing for 40000 sensex for 2009 and nifty hit 2252. How many chartist gave buy near 4500-700?
Many had predicted 7000 plus closing for nifty for the year dec 2011.Here also u must have seen many giving buy calls without stop loss saying their target was un imaginable.They thought participants and religare will pull up the market to make 7000..u saw the real closure..thats all.
Different analysts give different opinions..some use ew theory, some wolfwave theory, some using ema ,sma,dma,camrilla,what else.The market is run and its directed by big players who use any levels, p notes or fii money to go against the public behaviour and pull or push down it.Last time market roumour mills and tv/medias had predicted nifty below 2600 due to rising wedge formation near 3920..every one went short in the market, market went to hit new high 6357(2008).Even before shorters or investors could understood what was happening market went up to 5200 levls and never gave any opportunity to investors to buy or shorters to cover.Such media hypes only rob investors of the opportunity to liquidate their positions in high market hoping for making it double trible...and when falls rob them of opportunity to buy their stocks at cheap rates.( this story goes..public become fools in the hands of big players) BEst thing is to track fiis..if they sell u sell...if they buy u buy this is the best way to be in the system.
These are all good...
Well the good part is you have kept your breakout levels above nifty life highs .. above which the said targets are very much possible . as for the validity of the cup n handle pattern well i will reserve my comments on that ( it seems like we are seeing what we want to see , in this case the said 'pattern') .
I again beseech you not to over react to any prediction / forecast. A prediction is , well, a prediction; a probability of happening or non-happening of some future uncertain event. Take it on this spirit and trade as per daily chart.
Our memories are still fresh when we were all frightened with the eventual fall of NIFTY to 3800 or below. One month and that thread has gone into oblivion. May be with the slightest provocation it would raise its head again.
This is not to suggest that the same fate awaits here. What I am trying to instil, particularly in the psyche of new comers, that u read it only as another analytic article which might raise many opinions -for and against it.
If u look at various other posts elsewhere, there is a general sense of purported good economy.But economic news are always laden with political undertones,Chaos theory - in the sense unemployment fig in US is taking NIFTY to new high; US Election vis-a-vis NIFTY , ONGC money b4 UP Election,PC's case- any or many of them have the potential of rupturing a Stock Market.
We had a spell of mis placed pessimism; let the euphoria and optimism not replace it.. it is an open forum and literally has the potential of influencing public opinion.I started getting that hint since last night when I got queries in my messenger ID; U might have also got it. So while take care but dont get overtly euphoric or upset about it.
I love u all.
great analysis .....u opened secret magic cards on right time , bcos mostly trders still in 2011 bear fever ....this can open thier eyes
am with you
great job
Oh....god....beyond imaginaton but for sure nothing impossible as same happened in 2009. No one had expected Nifty will move about 4000 points and it could be this time aorund the way money is being poured.
MY VIEW...
LONG TERM BULLISH ABOVE 5400 WITH STRONG SUPPORT AT 5200...
Let me be the 1st one to comment; trust Mr subbu would vouch for this.
After 3800 now 7600 seems a 180 degree movement.And that too in such a small time .
The traders - pls dont fret. I just request u to keep whatever target u feel at the very back of your head. Trade mostly on a short tem basis. Opportunities will come and grabing them would be our prerogative.
Look at the NIFTY on a weekly basis and trade daily. Last year -2011- is past and we r in 2012 now. February will be eventful - nationally and internationally.
Chart does show some discernible pattern. But dont get over awed by them. If u have seen the live chart u must be knowing how fast a doji changes into a long candle; a red into a green and vice versa; Even EMA / DMA support resistances crumble like a pack of cards. Fib Nos keep changing.
Pls and I repeat pls dont get distracted by any prediction . Respect them but dont over react to them. Trust u understand. My best wishes.
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