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Trend reversal identification is childs play now
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Share it on FacebookHi Mudraites...
Trend reversal identification is childs play now.
No calculation of averages, no formulae...is required for that.
It works with 85% accuracy. Damn simple....
One can trade with this method with a horizon of one week to 10 days.
Any common man ( not the techies ) like me is interested ?
This is a simple method i use. This is not a software or any method copied from any place. This is my own method i follow.
I really dont know if anybody else is also using this method already.
ok...guys..... method is nothing great to boast about as i said in the begining.. But i found this is extremely easy to handle.
One can do a positional trading with a horizon of one week or so with this method. This is not for intraday trading.
Method :
You have to note down the current day closing price. ( it can be any stock or nifty also)
Compare the price with 5 day prior close price.
If the current day closing price is greater than 5 day prior closing price, then BUY next day.
If the current day closing price is less than 5 day prior closing price, then SELL next day.
if it is BUY, then one can buy at a price near to previous days closing price or low price.
if it is SELL, then one can sell at a price near to previous day closing price or high price.
No calculations or formulae required. only visual inspection.
Eg: RANBAXY
Date Closing price
20/1/12 468.35
23/1/12 463.45
24/1/12 467.70
25/1/12 474.50
27/1/12 443.90
30/1/12 450.65
31/1/12 449.55
here in this example, as on 31/1/12, the closing price was 449.55. 5 day prior closing price is 463.45.
So, the current price is less than the 5 day prior closing price. Therefore it is SELL as per this method.
Dont follow any method blindly. Kindly do your own homework first.
Thank you
Happy trading ..!!
Instead of 5 days prior closing price, one can compare with 6 days prior price also.
If it is a BUY, then one can keep a STOP LOSS of yesterdays low or just below yesterdays low.
Similarly, if it is SELL, one can keep STOP LOSS of yesterdays high or just above yesterdays high.
Or else, a stop loss of your convenience can always be put.
For stocks, any stop loss 2.25 to 2.7% is good enough.
The link to the modified method is in excel file here
In this file, i have analysed one year data of YESBANK with this method.
One has to just enter OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE value of any stock copy the formula from the above rows. It will give next days trage suggestion and trade price with stop loss and target.
kindly check
http://www.4shared.com/account/dir/WnrhAwIK/_online.html?&rnd=67#dir=150503755
The links for xls version of the file is as below
http://www.4shared.com/office/LKjSJN1N/6day_trend_analysis_-_xls_old_.html
[URL=http://www.4shared.com/office/LKjSJN1N/6day_trend_analysis_-_xls_old_.html]6day trend analysis - xls old version.xls[/URL]
try anyone of these. you should get the file.
thank u
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The following stocks have reversed to BUY mode as on today closing (ie. as on 1st Feb 2012)
kindly check.
| Symbol | Close |
| 3IINFOTECH | 16.10 |
| ABGSHIP | 417.85 |
| AHLUCONT | 80.90 |
| BAJAJFINSV | 458.95 |
| BALAJITELE | 39.65 |
| BRFL | 268.05 |
| CAIRN | 346.90 |
| COX&KINGS | 179.00 |
| DAAWAT | 45.70 |
| DABUR | 96.30 |
| DBREALTY | 62.80 |
| DEEPIND | 71.25 |
| DIGJAM | 8.75 |
| EDSERV | 44.05 |
| GTLINFRA | 12.30 |
| HEROMOTOCO | 1932.15 |
| HSIL | 134.25 |
| INDIAINFO | 55.25 |
| JAYNECOIND | 15.95 |
| JSL | 76.60 |
| KFA | 25.45 |
| KGL | 5.65 |
| KOUTONS | 16.60 |
| KRBL | 18.65 |
| MAHINDUGIN | 56.45 |
| MIC | 7.25 |
| NIITTECH | 212.60 |
| PFOCUS | 58.35 |
| PIRHEALTH | 417.50 |
| PSL | 63.75 |
| REDINGTON | 79.95 |
| RIIL | 443.50 |
| SONATSOFTW | 23.50 |
| SUPRAJIT | 20.05 |
| TATAPOWER | 110.15 |
| TULIP | 110.40 |
| TWL | 415.95 |
| UBL | 428.20 |
| VENKEYS | 454.55 |
| VIKASHMET | 8.80 |
| WHIRLPOOL | 179.15 |
| WWIL | 7.40 |
| ZEENEWS | 11.05 |
Nice Work Jodhan bhai and Nice sttrategy too KK sir...
Thanks...
Yes Milind ji
as per this method ICICI is still on BUY mode tomorrow. But please remember that, the trend changed to BUY mode few days ago and one has to be careful while trading with old trend. Trading with old trend is always with some risk.
As far as possible, we have to get into trade immediately when there is a trend reversal.
However, you can still go for a BUY for ICICIBANK, near the price 889 or near 878 with a STOP LOSS little below 878.
happy trading...
Thanks a lot Jodhan.
Yes i got the file. Nice work.
So on an average a trend last about 5 to 6 days. There are some exceptions also.
Thank you so much.
SIR K K
TODAY 1.2.2012 ICICIBANKK 889.90 AND 5 DAYS BACK 24.1.12 IT WAS 888.05 THEN WAT U R SUGGETION ?
KK, Sorry I just came from office.
I have uploaded the excel sheet. Here is the link to download the sheet
http://www.4shared.com/file/kMz4xoAv/KKs_5_Day_Method.html
I have also sent it to your email id. Let me know if this is how you want it.
In the second sheet is the NIFTY SPOT values which you get by refreshing the sheet. The same values can
be copy pasted in the first sheet. The 5 day value and signal will be automatically updated.
Hope this helps all of you.
Raj
How many of you back tested the data as per this method ? What is the feed back ?
pl post it here
Dear KK,
Great work . Can we have the excel sheet posted here for download, so that every one benifits
Thanks..
sure, I will. I will try to automate it further to get the NIFTY Spot values onto the sheet itself
Once you refresh the sheet the data is on the sheet itself. you don't have to go to the site also.
ok jodhan... send that execl sheet to my email id.
my id is kk_kumble2003 @ y a h o o . c o . i n
thanks
I cannot do attachments in the office, I will post it when I reach home in evening
Dear Jodhan,
Kindly post the excel sheet here for the benefit of those interested in this.
Hi Jodhan,
thanks for your effort. Kindly send me the excel sheet
thank u
Based on the method given by KK, I have prepared an excel sheet for Nifty Spot for the last one year data for back testing
This system will work which is similar to the 5DMA SAR System which is Stop and Reverse system which many people
are already using. This system should be used mainly for positional trading and mostly for trending stocks.
I will share the excel sheet showing the back testing along with the Buy Sell signals. You can use it daily by just inputing
the EOD price at the end of day. I have automated the formula which KK has given here.
Raj
dear Kripakar
ven if take risk and go for BUY tomorrow, as per todays close compared to 5 day prior close, then the buy price should be near todays close or todays low. ie. near 5237 or near 5159 or anywhere in between
the SL is 78 points, somewhere near to the target of 80 points,, if we keep 5199 SL then it is good 30 points any SAR system follows
Dear Kripakar Ji,
- I have understood the system. I am not going to keep 5047 as Stop Loss.
- As such STTR will change DAILY.
A N D
- Beauty of this system which I percieve is that even before day starts, you know about next
day's STTR.
- According to me for tomorrow, STTR is 5127.
- Please reply.
Warm Regards
Thank you Umesh ji
But i would not suggest any trade once the trend is more than 5 days old. In this case, nifty has moved up. But that will not be the case everytime.
Number of days are not important. What is important is to enter the trade immediate next day when the trend is reversed and exit at a decent profit whether it is nifty or any stocks. No need to wait till the trend reverse again for exit.
Dear Kripakar Ji,
- According to this system for MON - 30-01-2012, STTR should have been 5049. On 30-01-2012
it did not closed below this ( closing was at 5087) . Hence STTR was intact and very next day
on 31-01-20-2012, it bounced back nicely.
- Just I back tested it and thought that it might be useful for you and other members as well
Warm Regards
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