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SENSEX - a broader view
| From : Kripakar Kumble at 03:11 PM - Jan 04, 2012 ( ) |
Share it on FacebookSENSEX - a broader view
As we all know SENSEX had a low in march 2009 and made a high in November 2010. After this high, if we see the bigger picture, the market is slowly shrinking.
|
Date |
SENSEX |
Up move |
23.6% retrace |
38.2% retrace |
50% retrace |
61.8% retrace |
|
09/03/2009 |
8160 |
|
||||
|
05/11/2010 |
21004 |
12844 |
3031 |
4906 |
6422 |
7937 |
Therefore the retracement levels are
@23.6% = 21004 – 3031 = 17972
@38.2% = 21004 - 4906 = 16097
@50.0% = 21004 - 6422 = 14582
@61.8% = 21004 - 7937 = 13066
Sensex has already breached 23.6 & 38.2% retracement levels. Now it is in between 38.2 and 50.0% level. As long as it hold on above 50.0% retracement level ie. above 14582, we can say market is consolidating. For a decisive bull market, Sensex has to cross 38.2% level again ie. 16097 level and move up.
If it breach the 50.0% level ie 14582, then we will be heading towards 13066 in the days to come.
This is just my view. I may be wrong. I would request all mudraites to add something more to make this more clearer.
Thank you
|
Sensex closed today (13th march 2012) at 17813.62 which seems to be back on track and heading towards new high.
We should see 18970 or 19000 in the coming days.
Next two days are full of activities like railway budget, rbi policy review, union budget etc. Any positive trigger may take sensex to new heights.
interesteing days ahead..
After holding on to the 17100+ level for two days, SENSEX again moved up today and closed at 17503.24 which is just above our critical level of 17501.
Today was full of activities like MCX listing and the day started with a huge gap up opening. RBI announced CRR cut late in the evening. It was a positive day for SENSEX. Union Budget as well as series of events in the coming week, will work favorable to push the sensex further up i believe.
If sensex doesnt fall below 17100, i think we should see a new high in this month.
lets see how it goes..
happy trading..
SENSEX could not hold to the level 17591 and as expected it is nearing to the expected level 17101. Todays low is 17128 and closed at 17173.29.
From this level, sensex should turn upwards inorder to make a new high in this month. If it falls further, then sensex will be heading towards 16700 level. In such case, a new high in the month of march looks little doubtful.
lets see how it goes tomorrow.
happy trading.. !!
After the fall to 17445 level on 27th Feb 2012, SENSEX has managed to hold on to the level 17591 since last four trading days. Yesterday (2-mar-2012), sensex closed at 17636.80.
We are at the crucial point, where trend can go either way. Any close below 17591 will push the sensex down to 17101 level. At the moment, it looks SENSEX will move upwards.
Two more days...will make the things clear
Happy trading..
SENSEX today breached the immediate target of 17591 and closed at 17445.75 which is something unusual fall today.
Next support level of 17101 is in the visinity now.
Tomorrow will be crucial once again whether SENSEX move up a bit and further falls down is to be seen. If it falls again, then we will be heading towards 17101.
happy trading
SENSEX today made an intraday high of 18198.15 and low of 17848.93 and finally closed around 17923.57.
This is again pretty close to our prediction of high=18176 and low=17949 posted yesterday. Up trend lasted only first half an hour.
Very short term downside target of 17591 is just about 300+ points way and sensex may reach there by next week it seems.
Whether it reverse from there or downward movement continue further, we will know next week.
For monday 27th Feb 2012, the trend looks like "down" and expected HIGH=17982 and LOW=17790.
Till then happy weekend...
As expected, the trend was neutral today and sensex made an intraday high of 18249 and low of 18005 today (23/02/2012), it is pretty close to our prediction of high=18273 and low=18008 levels.
A short term correction has begun and it should push the sensex down to 17591 level in few days and below this the support will be at 17101.
As far as tomorrow's trade is concerned, the trend looks like "UP TREND" and expected levels are HIGH= 18176 and LOW=17949.
Happy trading.. !!
Finally today (22nd Feb 2012), much awaited very short term correction began. SENSEX closed today 18145.25
Tomorrow it looks like a "neutral trend" again and SENSEX move around 18273 to 18008 level. Chances of sensex moving down to 18008 is high. Below this the next support level is 17899.
Expiry day, so interesting to watch the show.
Happy trading..!!
Sensex closed today (21st Feb 2012) at 18428.61 and we are inching closer to our target of 18970.
Two more days to Feb expiry, it will be interesting to see whether we reach this target in this expiry itself or after some minor correction in between.
This is an amazing rally we have seen in the last one month. Both SENSEX and NIFTY avoided a minor corrections in between this rally, twice (once around 30th Jan and again on 13th feb) by moving sideways.
Next two days will have full of activities in market as expiry is on the way.
Happy trading.. !!
SENSEX closed today (17th Feb 2012) at 18289.35 after making an intraday high of 18423.06. We are heading towards to our next level target of 18970.
Whether we will reach there within this months expiry or after a small correction in between is to be seen. Things will be more clearer once the trading starts next week.
happy trading...!!
Senses today crossed the 23.6% retracement mark (17972) with a bang and closed at 18183.86. Therefore we would be heading towards our next target now.
Next target level for SENSEX is 18970. Accordingly nifty target would be 5689.
SENSEX should will achieve this target soon with a very minor correction in between may be.
As on 10th Feb 2012, SENSEX closed at 17748.69 and hence sensex close above the critical point 17647 consecutively for three days. It seems like we are heading to higher level from here on. Once it cross 17972, then next target level 18970.
However, after couple of weeks of rally, it looked like the momentum has reduced slightly. A very short time correction of 600 to 650 points on sensex is on the cards. It should bring sensex down to 17150 - 17100 level soon.
From there onwards, things may get clear about future course of sensex.
thank u
SENSEX today (9th Feb 2012) closed at 17830.75, and hence we are now close to the 23.6% retracement level ie. 17972.
Sensex should touch this level in a day or two.
Expecting a reversal from there next week and SENSEX may retrace to 17150 level from there.
Lets see how it goes tomorrow...
SENSEX today closed at 17707.32 which is again 60 points higher than our crucial point 17647.
In the last 3 days, SENSEX has closed above this point (17647) on two days except yesterday where it had closed slightly lower.
Tomorrow is an important day. If SENSEX open with a gap up of 150+ points or so and hold on there for first two hours, then we have a chance that it may go up. Otherwise some fall is expected.
Happy trading...
Good analysis, like your post as you give with all explaination not like others, keep it up.
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