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Paramount Question
| From : Pradip Ray at 10:57 AM - Dec 24, 2011 ( ) |
Share it on FacebookWhat has actually happenned ? Only last week we were all talking about 3800-4200 level.Today 5100 + ? Has the economic conditions improved to that extent ? A clean 25 % uppish psyche in the market barometer ! Any game ? A ploy by interested stakeholders ? Food Inflation data ? RBI ? Europe / USA ? Christmas ? Year end bonus / dividend ? Beautiful weather ? Some "X" fell in love with some "Y" in Timbaktu ??
Not clear.But the fact of the matter is we are clearly witnessing a metamorphosis of opinion within a short time.Coping with the trend is the buzzword in the market. Particularly stock market. Then what is the trend ? As soon as Index goes up "I-said-so" people jam the session.It is the reverse in the opposite scenario.
EW, Retracement, Dow theory, TA are all proving the romping ground for the all pervasive operators from all corners of the world. I am sure all of you must have minted money in this milieu. Expect the unexpected, hedge. Oft repeated but pretty effective sermon. I am trying to follow it. 4800 / 4400 - hedge both. Easier said than done. BEP ? Money involved !!
Stock Market is such a fascinating Loss-Loss or Win-Win world ! One falls in love with it. More the male as they are habituated to spend during date. Agreed ?
Like to check once more how we change our perception so quickly ? Is it on a very weak foundation ?
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This thread I dug up. See how our anticipation changes. I also quoted part of 2 responses. I have been repeatedly telling that some of the members here having loads of followers are being directly or indirectly used to spread either green or red flags. And many of the members lost heavily and feeling embarrassed to admit. Pls mention it for the benefit of others.
From : Niladri Jana at 01:49 PM - Dec 24, 2011 (36 days ago)
I think folks are gearing up for the year ending session of 30th Dec 2011. Nothing flahsy happend with SANTA rally.
In Jan'12 we should see the next phase of correction & this time it will bad....why??
Vilas Havanur at 11:25 AM - Dec 24, 2011 (2 hours ago)
Dear Pradipji,
In stock market, you know very well, nobody can predict the DIRECTION, 100%.
Ifs and Thens shall always be there and one has to go in for the PROBABILITY that would really work.
Even during coming week, both possibilities EXIST. May be either 4948 or 4427.
Let's meet once again on 29th and check the FINAL SCORE.
DONE?
Indeed Ajay
That is the moot point, Last one month for the 1st time I actively participated in Option. And beginners luck helped me. But after one month I realised that I realised nothing !!!
FII / DII /Operators are cash rich and capable of strangling / collaring / whatevering and come out triumphs. And we suck the thumb.
Happy X-mas.
pradip ji....
when the mkts started dec expiry from 4700 to 5100...im not sure what changed..except all bears turned bulls at 5000 levels...
then when the mkts crashed from 6th till 19th..5100 to 4555 ...then all tuned bearish from 4700 n below levels...
i think the most diffcult part for a trader is finding out where the top happens...when is a bottom set in place...by the time that is realised 70% of the rally in either direction is done..and then ppl get the last 30% right...
This ema strategy is applicable for both index and stocks, 200 ema in 5 min chart is good for 2 -3 days holdings you can select the time frame according to your holding period 30 min chart for one week daily chart for long term. For bottom fishing atleast 13 ema has to crossed or 23 % fibo retracement needed
Thanx Mr Jana. It is indeed a bold and thoughful statement ( ref play intraday long Index, accumulate shorts on rise, USDINR plight,IraQ, Budget pronouncement etc). It reallys betrays what I wanted to say. Take a bit of Technicals, add some news, stir them , add some red or green colour and Voila ! u r ready with your magic potion! Obelisk (operators) is ever ready to take the Gauls and Asterisk (Traders) join. Any problem in the proportion-and wheeze,
Nice, no!
I think folks are gearing up for the year ending session of 30th Dec 2011. Nothing flahsy happend with SANTA rally.
In Jan'12 we should see the next phase of correction & this time it will bad....why??
USDINR will rise further......why....US is no longer wasting their money on IRAQ..all troops withdrawn this month already.
INDIA on the other hand has not done anything to build the momentum to show any sign of strength in rupee.
This trend should continue till we have budget announcement of 2012 & if we see some great initiatives by Govt., only then I think we are talking of a rebound from those bottom levels which we shold see in Jan-Feb 2012.
So, JAN to APR 2012 should be the time to accumulate the stocks which have great fundamental value & wait for them to show you numbers only in 2013.
For the time being ...with every rise of NIFTY....accumulate shorts as positional picks & if one has to play long , play intraday basis only.
No I dont think it is done. I am not disputing about the uncertainities in Stock Market. The fact of the matter is we are all trying to put this random move in a pattern. some time the power of Wave looks daunting; other time it is Candles' and all pervading News do play its own role.
And so many people assemble with the sole purpose of making money !!! I
Knowing fully well only a handful can make it. Is not it fascinating ! Surrealistic ? I am just thinking loud. Chaos theory in action. How many have actually made money? I know some people in Mudraa who are confident of being capable of running his livelihood - trading, not tip providing-from the market.I salute them.Are you (in collective) one of them?
From : Vilas Havanur at 11:25 AM - Dec 24, 2011 (2 hours ago)
Dear Pradipji,
In stock market, you know very well, nobody can predict the DIRECTION, 100%.
Ifs and Thens shall always be there and one has to go in for the PROBABILITY that would really work.
Even during coming week, both possibilities EXIST. May be either 4948 or 4427.
Let's meet once again on 29th and check the FINAL SCORE.
DONE?
This is perfectly alright, Hold long above 200 dma / ema and shorts below. I think u r referring stocks; or is it NIFTY?
Then what is bottom fishing ? Buying at low ? To be avoided ?
Subra Maniam at 11:47 AM - Dec 24, 2011 (1 hours ago)
Dear Pradipji, Now a days lot of our members told 4200 3900 and some body told 4900 5100 like that, but as per me we should not predict the direction only thing as a trader we should strictly follow some systems and acts accordingly take 5 min chart if the price is above 200 ema hold longs below 200 ema hold shorts this is my view the system may be anything i am just say ema as an example
Dear Pradipji, Now a days lot of our members told 4200 3900 and some body told 4900 5100 like that, but as per me we should not predict the direction only thing as a trader we should strictly follow some systems and acts accordingly take 5 min chart if the price is above 200 ema hold longs below 200 ema hold shorts this is my view the system may be anything i am just say ema as an example
Dear Pradipji,
In stock market, you know very well, nobody can predict the DIRECTION, 100%.
Ifs and Thens shall always be there and one has to go in for the PROBABILITY that would really work.
Even during coming week, both possibilities EXIST. May be either 4948 or 4427.
Let's meet once again on 29th and check the FINAL SCORE.
DONE?
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