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MARKET OUTLOOK:AARESKAY:05-12-2011.
| From : Sivakumar R at 10:21 AM - Dec 04, 2011 ( ) |
Share it on FacebookBULL TRAP OR REAL RALLY?????
All indicators are in a Positive Zone but Wave Theory not suggesting an upmove. Nifty rallied from 4639 to 5062 in just 7 days with high volatility and somedays moves up in a rapid manner but with comparitively lesser volume. Rallied without fresh buying. Rallied because of short covering. I suspect that it may be a trap. I also came to a conclusion that this is not a 4th wave. This might be a B wave or an X wave or even a 2nd wave. There is some confusion in labeling this wave but according to my analysis and knowledge .... this is not a real uptrend. Heavy accumulation of Puts (Thursday) may be the reason for this swift rally. Heavy accumulation of Puts and as well as 5100-5200 calls occured on Friday. Who accumulated? It is very difficult to find. Writing of 5200 calls by FIIs or accumulation of 5200 calls by traders??? No clue.
I asked to sell Nifty at 5000 spot and asked to buy nifty 4 times on Friday. My average rate comes above 5100 levels. And My stoploss is 5215 spot. This stoploss is too high and hence small traders avoid this. Those who have some fear hedge with 5300 calls or exit short positions tomorrow. I told that Nifty will come down to 4571 spot some days ago. To predict the time factor is a very difficult thing because of Options. You can earn in OTM Options only if you are against the majority. Trade options for intraday purpose only. I already told to exit shorts and puts when Nifty opened at 4760 spot levels on 25-11-2011. I suspect that nobody adhered my advice and got stuck in those shorts and puts. Am I right? Trading needs discipline. Moreover you have to learn something about trading. Without some basic knowledge, you will always incur losses in following me or other fellow members of this forum. Anybody is earning regularly and consistently by following the (all) tips provided by us? I really doubt ???? OK. BACK TO MARKETS......
If fails to move above 5110 spot (61.8% of the fall), then, chances of sliding towards 4966-4908-4868-4838 spot levels. I am expecting a rangebound tomorrow between 5075-5015 spot levels. If breaks 5008 spot, then, expect a fall towards 4966 and then towards 4920 spot levelss. 4916-4918 spot will act as crucial supports. If breaks and sustain below 4915 spot, then, expect a fall towards 4868-4838 spot. Another crucial support is 4828 spot.
If moves past 5112 spot with force or if sustain above this level for a sufficient time, then, expect a move towards 5155 spot and then towards 5175 spot. I am not expecting a move above 5200 spot. But expect the unexpected also.
Out of station on MONDAY and hence no intraday updates.
WATCH 5115 SPOT 5008 SPOT CLOSELY FOR CLUES
CAUTION: 'B' waves will always difficult to trade. Intraday only is the best option.
CRUCIAL RESISTANCES: 5075-5109-5150-5175-5210 SPOT.
CRUCIAL SUPPORTS : 5010-4970-4966-4915-4868 SPOT.
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But the story and technicals in his latest update was already different in this thread :
http://www.mudraa.com/trading/112603/0/market-outlook-aareskay-19-12-2011.html
Look at "B" wave given by Shivkumar and watch his predictions well in advance.
Shiva sir waiting for this week analysis!!!!
Prediction is excellent. Your each and every word should read carefully. Thanks for your guidance
ok sir, i got it below 4828 spot huge fall,so i will keep strict sl
ok shiva, i exited all puts and entered 2 lots 5000 call, somewhere by 3.10 u asked to enter into call right sir!!!
Dear Karthik, If I sensed a rally is on, I would have advised all to buy Nifty. I just said... exit from short positions. (Be safe) There is no bearish signals emerged and at the same time some bullish signs emerged and that also has been nullified by the fall from 4918 to 4858 spot. Things are not clear. I think that We will have another chance to sell at high or at 4828 spot on Monday.
I am hesitatating to reveal the actual targets and also hesitating to give Buy/or sell calls (with huge targets) because people always wanted to earn quickly through OTM options. You cannot earn regularly in OTM options. Option trading is designed for Hedging purposes only. OTM options will be cleverly used for hedging purposes only and not for trading. Heavy losses will come only through OTM options and not by intraday options. My sincere suggestion is: if we avoid taking positions in options, Nifty will move in a healthy manner. To adhere or not.... it is left to you....
Dear Siva,
Monday there will be a pull back rally??
dow and europe mkt zooms over 1.5%
Wats ur take for monday
Please always remember that all upmoves are corrective in nature. If any subtle changes occur, I will let you know. Keep on selling on each and every rise positionally until my target or my stoploss. I can still remember my stoplosses: 5980,5775,5565,5437??,5275 and now 5115 spot. This is clearly a bear market and my minimum target is 3800.
Siva sir, i mean it's my personal risk... you are doing a great work and I appreciate your hard work..
Shiva as per ur post towards close i bought 5000 call 2 lots
This seems to be one of the moot points.Yes Mr Siva. I got this message.Loud and clear and gearing myself for it.
.....Trade in Nifty futures. Do intraday trades in options. Market will open allways against options open interest except one or two times.......
Sir, does this ratio points generally to a short covering rally,,,, are a general upward movement.... ?? your considered views please... canyou throw more light for academic interest ?
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