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Vijay Venkataswamy

Vijay Venkataswamy

City: Mumbai

Joining Date: 08 Oct , 2012
Last Login: 03:43 PM - 15 Jul , 2018
IP Address of Last Login - 182.68.9.xxx
Profile Verified by Mobile.

Reply for: BANKNIFTY FUTURES

Vijay Venkataswamy at 11:22 AM - Jul 13, 2018 ( )

The hourly RSI is below its moving average. Downward bias as of now

 

Reply for: BANKNIFTY FUTURES

Vijay Venkataswamy at 11:21 AM - Jul 13, 2018 ( )



New Thread: BANKNIFTY FUTURES

Vijay Venkataswamy at 11:20 AM - Jul 13, 2018 ( )

Let us discuss BNF

Reply for: How to trade Options

Vijay Venkataswamy at 05:50 PM - Feb 12, 2017 ( )

Expiry Week . Keep the following NF historical data of the drop/increase in last 4 trading day of the contract, as a guide to assess the probablity and keep expections under check. If you are a option writer this is very valuable information.

Last 4 trading day movement close on expiry day  - Open on the E-4 day.


Reply for: Hi NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

Vijay Venkataswamy at 07:14 AM - Feb 10, 2017 ( )

If at all there is a pullback then that will be lead by BankNifty

Reply for: Hi NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

Vijay Venkataswamy at 11:33 AM - Feb 09, 2017 ( )

To confirm the short term top the closing in NS should be below 8725.

Reply for: How to trade Options

Vijay Venkataswamy at 08:48 PM - Feb 08, 2017 ( )

Thanks for commenting Pradip Da.

The best risk return if NF is kept as the base for trading is, 15 points SL with 35 points target.

Short only trades 


Long only trades 

Reply for: How to trade Options

Vijay Venkataswamy at 06:13 PM - Feb 08, 2017 ( )

ATM options are a good bet if you are nimble enough to exit 

Reply for: Hi NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

Vijay Venkataswamy at 05:56 PM - Feb 08, 2017 ( )


Starting to show weakness.


Reply for: How to trade Options

Vijay Venkataswamy at 09:02 AM - Feb 07, 2017 ( )

Guys, I have a historical statistically supported SL for intraday trades in NF. It is +-15 points from open price of the day of NF respective for Short (or put) or Long ( or call). Even if you are in a Option position exit based on NF levels. 

Reply for: How to trade Options

Vijay Venkataswamy at 07:09 AM - Feb 06, 2017 ( )

When a pullback happens and returns to the same value. Both the calls and puts would have lost time value.



Reply for: Hi NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

Vijay Venkataswamy at 07:06 AM - Feb 06, 2017 ( )

EOW picture.



Reply for: Hi NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

Vijay Venkataswamy at 08:53 AM - Feb 02, 2017 ( )

As posted yesterday the stoch extreme can cause a small pullback and till EMA 35 provides support, it will be positive in medium term.

Reply for: How to trade Options

Vijay Venkataswamy at 02:54 PM - Feb 01, 2017 ( )

Now the pairs are equally poised. We shall see a historical data based system to identify opportunities



Reply for: How to trade Options

Vijay Venkataswamy at 02:41 PM - Feb 01, 2017 ( )


Yesterday EOD

Reply for: Hi NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

Vijay Venkataswamy at 01:53 PM - Feb 01, 2017 ( )

Except for overbought stochastics , rest are positive

Reply for: Hi NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

Vijay Venkataswamy at 07:52 AM - Feb 01, 2017 ( )

Scenario remains the same as yesterday. EMA 18 crossing down EMA 20 on EOD can mark a start of a downtrend


New Thread: How to trade Options

Vijay Venkataswamy at 06:33 AM - Dec 30, 2016 ( )

Will be sharing what I learn



From: vijay venkataswamy at 12:36 PM - Dec 30, 2016( )


The posts may come in a slow pace so that every point is embedded deep in the brain and finally at the end ,each of the sincere learner will not have depend on any forecasts by anybody.



From: vijay venkataswamy at 07:44 AM - Jan 02, 2017( )


You may refer to my other thread where broad direction of indices are discussed http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=228799



From: vijay venkataswamy at 02:59 PM - Jan 06, 2017( )


Indices thread at http://www.mudraa.com/trading/228799/0/hi-nifty-and-banknifty.html

New Thread: Hi NIFTY and BANKNIFTY

Vijay Venkataswamy at 07:55 AM - Dec 29, 2016 ( )

Just to say Hi to Mudraa. Back to this forum after a year or so. Hope I will be active in 2017. 



From: vijay venkataswamy at 04:18 PM - Dec 29, 2016( )


Link for charts for my future posts 

NIFTY 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NIFTY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50463409152

BANK NIFTY

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BANKNIFTY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p56747676564



From: vijay venkataswamy at 11:23 AM - Jan 02, 2017( )


EMA 18 Vs EMA 20 on EOD shows a fair assesment of the trend in the time frame you are trading.

The area around EMA 35 shows support in case trend is up and resistance in case of down-trend

The best risk - return is when the Stochastics are at extremes in both Weekly and Daily.

New Thread: I am buying JUL 8300PE @81

Vijay Venkataswamy at 03:10 PM - Jul 01, 2015 ( )

Reason :  custom indicator at overbought levels

New Thread: I am buying July 8300 PE at 99

Vijay Venkataswamy at 09:19 AM - Jun 24, 2015 ( )

Will tell the reasons later. High risk.

New Thread: WEEKLY RSI (5) OBSERVATION - VJ

Vijay Venkataswamy at 10:00 PM - May 15, 2015 ( )

In the past when weekly (5) RSI was at these levels what had happened ?. Please check the vertical lines

New Thread: NIFTY 2015 - BUY SL and SELL SL - my view - Vijay

Vijay Venkataswamy at 08:04 AM - Apr 07, 2015 ( )

Jan 1st low and March31st low has formed a no-mans land this year . Buy SL should be 8454 and Sell below Jan 1st low 8248. SL should be mid of the channel 8350. 

AVOIDING THE SUICIDE TRADE AT ALL COSTS

Last week at my family’s traditional Thanksgiving dinner Uncle Richard was missing from the table.  I am sure he would have been there if he could have been but he was dead, having wrapped his car around a light pole earlier this year.

Richard was my father’s younger cousin and even as a little kid I knew he was somewhat of an odd guy, as evidenced by that fact that he actually insisted that people call him “Dick” instead of Richard.

At my high school graduation ceremony he offered me, all of seventeen years old at the time, a celebratory “bump.”  Hiiiiii-*in-yooo…..!!!  Fortunately I always subscribed to the Willie & Lester philosophy of “say ‘nope’ to dope, and ‘ugh’ to drugs” and took a pass.

Back in the 70’s he was married to a later day flower child who although hot in that “I-don’t-shave-my-armpits-but-am-into-free-love” type of way, was a vegetarian extremist.  She would always show up at holiday dinners with “nut roll”, and make her kids eat it instead of turkey or ham, or even stuffing if God forbid there was any sausage in it.

Despite his quirkiness, to an outsider his life had pretty much played out by the book.  Star football player in high school, into the military for a couple of years, college degree, and then a steady job with a solid East Coast company.

Later in life his mother had left him a good inheritance, so financially he was set.  He was re-married, had two grown kids, and a couple of grandchildren.  His life was “dialed in”.

But a closer examination revealed a guy who had demons to fight.  There was a reckless streak to him that constantly put at risk all the things he had worked so hard for in his life.

The pattern was always the same.  His life would go for years at a time without incident and then out of the blue he’d inject a massive dose of bad judgment into it and nearly go off the rails.

Once after a night of partying with his friends he pulled his BMW over by the side of the road to “take a rest.”  Two weeks later he awoke from his coma.

His car had gone up in flames so completely that it melted all four tires to the ground.  He suffered burns over a good portion of his body, only minimized by the fact that the owner of the house which he parked his car in front of saw the flames and doused him with his garden hose as he was rolling on the ground with his clothes on fire.

His story was that he had lit up a cigar and then dropped it on the floor mat, which started the fire.  However the police report made mention of an “accelerant” of some kind and there was speculation, in hushed tones of course, that it was actually some sort of botched Viking style funeral pyre attempt.

I shit you not; this is a photo of the car the next morning in the local paper.

I didn’t know why he did the things he did and to tell the truth I didn’t really care.  I know that may seem callous but it’s the truth.  He was twenty-five years my senior and a “holiday relative” at best, whom I saw maybe once a year.  When I did see him our entire conversation would go like this….

“Hey buddy…how are you doing?

“Pretty good, what have you been up to?”

“Oh you know, the usual, how about you?”

“Same old, same old.”

“Yeah, I can relate.  I am going to grab a drink, let’s catch up later……”

Of course we never would catch up later because we didn’t care enough about each other to do so.

The party line in the family is that he lost control of his Porsche around a tight turn, but the real story is that after leaving his favorite watering hole he decided to race a guy in a Ferrari. It is up for debate as to whether these incidents throughout his life were really covert suicide attempts or not, but this last bad decision achieved the same result no matter what the intent.

Despite my ambivalence about Uncle Dick, watching his antics from a far during my formative years taught me a couple of very important rules for life in general and they have always served me well, but it took me a long time to realize that they all also translate perfectly into trading.

Rule #1: There is no amount of good work that can’t be undone by one bad decision.

You’ve had a good day trading?  A good week?  A good quarter?  Maybe even a good year trading….doesn’t matter, one bad decision and you can give it all back.

Rule #2: There is an inverse relationship between the amount of time and work needed in order to create and the amount needed to destroy.

Do you spend hours and hours each day looking at charts, talking with traders, running scans, reading all the SEC documents you can get your hands on just to get an edge in your trading? One split second “gut” trade and it is all for naught.

Rule #3:  Sometimes your worst decision will be your last decision.

If you make a decision that is bad enough in trading such as ignoring your stops, adding to a losing trade, or over-leveraging your account, not unlike my uncle, it won’t matter what your real intent is, the outcome will be a “suicide trade.”

Trading in the abstract can be about many things; control, ego, risk, stimulation, “mommy issues”, etc., but at the end of the day, your success at it is measured by dollars.  If you have more of them when you finish than you had when you started, you are a success.  The rub is that as long as you are still trading, you are never finished, and all three rules remain in play.

This last rule of course is the most critical one.  Over the years (in trading) I have violated Rules #1 and #2 on numerous occasions.  I have experienced seeing my hard work/profits go away in one stupid, almost instantaneous decision, and then swear that I will never do it again, but I have never violated Rule #3.

I know it is out there though, waiting for me like one of those yellow barrels in “Jaws”. Circling around, sometimes going under to pretend it’s no longer a threat, but always stalking me, waiting for that one momentary lapse of discipline and judgment to jump on me when my back is turned.

Richard Dreyfuss as Matt Hooper, Roy Schneider as Chief Brody, and Robert Shaw as Bernie Madoff.

Chris Rock once said that when he had his first daughter he instantaneously knew that from that moment on he only had one purpose in life.  Not to make money.  Not to be a success.  Not to win an Academy Award, but to keep her off the pole at any cost.  If you are a trader it’s the same thing, your one purpose in your trading it to avoid the suicide trade at any cost.

Maybe you think that it is insensitive and superficial to compare the actual loss of life to blowing up a trading account?  Well I am not talking about a 22-year-old college student blowing up his 5K account at Charles Schwab.  I can name five people I personally know that were well into their 40’s and blew up their accounts up and lost major parts of their lives like their spouses, their children, or their homes, and are now suffocating under a mountain of debt (credit card cash advances can fund a trading account.  Hiyoooo…!).  One of them lost ALL OF THOSE THINGS in a three-month period.

And if you throw in the “Madoff’s” of the world, it’s easy to see that the damage the suicide trade can cause can be as bad as the actual loss of life.

By the way, as ambivalent as I may have been about my uncle, I am not a complete A-hole and would never cause unnecessary suffering to his widow or children. None of them have the remotest idea that I write a blog, let alone read it 

 

I don't know at this stage how whipsaws will eat away the profits. Simple long only Futures strategy. Buy when 2mins  50 EMA crosses over 200 EMA. Exit when it crosses down.

New Thread: NIFTY Prediction

Vijay Venkataswamy at 11:38 AM - Jan 07, 2015 ( )

My simple predictions based on volumes and sometimes option OI.

New Thread: My view : Modi effect = 1500 points in NIFTY

Vijay Venkataswamy at 07:13 PM - Jun 19, 2014 ( )

IMHO (In my humble opinion)  Modi effect is 1500 points. So when you look at 7500 read it as 6000 pre-Modi . So the new fair value is 7500.  

7915 should be treated as equivalent to the previous all time high 6415 achieved on Dec9 2013.

Opinions / Critisim  Welcome in this thread.



From: vijay venkataswamy at 07:10 AM - Sep 03, 2015( )


This was posted in June last year. IMHO 7500 will act as a strong support. All pro-govt investment machinery will come to save that level  LIC, SBI-MF etc etc

New Thread: SENSEX = GOLD ( 10 GMS) more or less @25500

Vijay Venkataswamy at 01:02 PM - Jun 09, 2014 ( )

When did this happen the previous time ? 

Just out of academic interest tested a Bollinger band based strategy since 2005. Wow! the result is : 7370 Points , which is almost equal to the current value if the index. People may argue that some one who kept a long since 2005 would have got the same result if they kept on rolling over by putting in more margin during drawdowns.

This was tested with NIFTY bees ( which is approx 1/10 of NIFTY value) , so multiply the results with 10, as spot nifty is not available for tesing in NEST.

May be true. So if you are confident of long term bullishness then go ahead with probably hedging with a OTM put.





From: vijay venkataswamy at 12:53 PM - May 25, 2014( )


At those days NIFTY lotsize was 100. So now the equivalent is 2 lots Nifty. 

I have a few simple setups with which I can bactest using nest and provide the most suitable logic for that stock. Other members can post alternate setups if it provides a better result and less drawdowns.

The rule is : It should be based on daily candles.

New Thread: Axis bank looks good in this setup

Vijay Venkataswamy at 07:34 AM - May 05, 2014 ( )

Buy on dips with SL 1500. Based on this setup which is backtested for the past 1 year.

3 step NF trade - based on Nifty Spot level. Target 250 Points . SL 50 points . Any one game for it ?



From: vijay venkataswamy at 08:36 AM - Apr 09, 2014( )


My ideas are not original. It is based on various sources and gut feel. Be ready to change the view during the trade. We are not permanent bulls or permanent bears. 

New Thread: Too late to go long in Bank Nifty ?

Vijay Venkataswamy at 09:01 AM - Mar 30, 2014 ( )

My paper trade backtest on simple logic of 

Buy or reverse

enter if  today's open is > previous day's open and it is the 4th such consecutive high open.

Sell or reverse

enter if today's open is < previous day's open and it is the 3rd such consecutive low open.

Psycology : Optimism comes late  and pessimism comes fast. 

Warning. While this may be the signature of BNF now it may change in future. This signature may not apply for other index or stocks






From: vijay venkataswamy at 10:53 PM - Mar 31, 2014( )


Added exit conditions. I am able to reduce a bigger intra-leg drawdowns . The largest loss leg could be SL ed at 500 and trade entered at next signal ( and optionally on recurrence of the previous entry point prior to SL). 

New Thread: 3 Nifty strategies - which one should I choose

Vijay Venkataswamy at 09:46 AM - Mar 29, 2014 ( )

This is just a paper trading backtest. If you were me which one would you choose ? .

See carefully the maximum loss possible in one leg. Ofcouse stop loss can be kept. 

The first one is in trade now.The second one is not in trade (it is a long and exit only strategy) . The third strategy is currently in big loss ( if you have not kept sl). 

All are based on consecutive open-price based logic . 










From: vijay venkataswamy at 09:51 AM - Mar 29, 2014( )


Though time is shown as 12:00 A.M , it is the NF open price of the day. 



From: vijay venkataswamy at 10:07 AM - Mar 29, 2014( )


correction. The last leg of the 3rd strategy in bigloss ( if you have not kept SL)



From: vijay venkataswamy at 06:55 AM - Mar 31, 2014( )


I recorded a video on How to backtest ALGO in Nest trader.

http://youtu.be/SAzTllic9bs

So take any advice with a pinch of salt

Like how you should not catch a falling knife,

Don't stand in the middle of a Wildebeast migration. Hope you have seen this in national geographic videos and "Lion King" animation movie.

Even a lion will get trampled if it stands in the middle of a wildebeast (bulls) migration.

So if it is your idea to short at 6500, 6600, 6700 levels then do so , but with caution.



Threads by Vijay Venkataswamy
TitleDate
BANKNIFTY FUTURES [3 ] Futures & Options 13 Jul, 2018
How to trade Options [63 ] Futures & Options 30 Dec, 2016
Hi NIFTY and BANKNIFTY [47 ] Futures & Options 29 Dec, 2016
I am buying JUL 8300PE @81 [2 ] Futures & Options 01 Jul, 2015
I am buying July 8300 PE at 99 [11 ] Futures & Options 24 Jun, 2015
WEEKLY RSI (5) OBSERVATION - VJ [6 ] Market Outlook 15 May, 2015
NIFTY 2015 - BUY SL and SELL SL - my view - Vijay [7 ] Market Outlook 07 Apr, 2015
Avoiding the suicide trade ( cut and paste article) [3 ] General Discussion 21 Mar, 2015
The Golden cross in 2mins chart. Simple strategy -Vijay [32 ] Futures & Options 17 Feb, 2015
NIFTY Prediction [11 ] Market Outlook 07 Jan, 2015
My view : Modi effect = 1500 points in NIFTY [8 ] Market Outlook 19 Jun, 2014
SENSEX = GOLD ( 10 GMS) more or less @25500 [2 ] Market Outlook 09 Jun, 2014
Could have given you 7370 points in NIFTY since 2005 [4 ] Learning Section 25 May, 2014
Stock - I will backtest and give a most suitable logic [21 ] Technical Calls 18 May, 2014
Axis bank looks good in this setup [11 ] Banking Sector 05 May, 2014
3 step 50 point SL NF trade - based on Nifty Spot level [20 ] Futures & Options 09 Apr, 2014
Too late to go long in Bank Nifty ? [15 ] Learning Section 30 Mar, 2014
3 Nifty strategies - which one should I choose [2 ] Futures & Options 29 Mar, 2014
6500 is unknown teritorry for both bulls and bears. [1 ] Market Outlook 07 Mar, 2014
Don't stand in the middle of a Wildebeast migration [1 ] Market Outlook 07 Mar, 2014
Anti - incubancy wave in Mudraa? :-) [3 ] General Discussion 05 Mar, 2014
Retail Put buyer is the worst enemy of a Future shorter [38 ] General Discussion 03 Mar, 2014
Options OI - who all folded their cards today [1 ] Market Outlook 25 Feb, 2014
Take this call only if you have money for 4 NF lot NRML [30 ] Futures & Options 25 Feb, 2014
Is it bye bye all time highs till elections ? [2 ] Market Outlook 10 Jan, 2014
NIfty performance last 14 years [27 ] General Discussion 08 Jan, 2014
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF WINNING THIS TRADE? [20 ] General Discussion 27 Dec, 2013
Be more careful after a successful trade [1 ] General Discussion 27 Dec, 2013
Wishing Jackpot profits for Mudraa members in 2014 [4 ] General Discussion 25 Dec, 2013
My attempt at spot levels - based on middle price [14 ] Market Outlook 15 Dec, 2013
What happened to the 40000 Cr LIC told it will invest? [1 ] General Discussion 14 Dec, 2013
Comparison of call and puts Dec 11 close and Dec 6 Clos [5 ] Futures & Options 12 Dec, 2013
Watch till NF open interest builds upto 2.3 - 2.4 Crore [5 ] Market Outlook 04 Dec, 2013
Shorters in RCOM be careful [4 ] Market Rumours 12 Nov, 2013
How some threads get pumped up without any update ? [2 ] General Discussion 23 Oct, 2013
Passed NISM equity derivatives exam in 1st attempt [23 ] General Discussion 20 Oct, 2013
Fiscal Cliff, Tapering and now US Shutdown [6 ] General Discussion 30 Sep, 2013
Bears beware [25 ] Market Outlook 29 Sep, 2013
Welcome the "Common sense" speculator [1 ] General Discussion 03 Sep, 2013
Looks like it is Goldy Vs Rocky :-) [5 ] General Discussion 03 Sep, 2013
Nifty5550 Equal distant strikes 5800 CE and 5300 PE ? [5 ] Futures & Options 02 Sep, 2013
NF signal based on EMA of 90,150 and 390 in 1min candle [65 ] Market Outlook 30 Aug, 2013
Due to Mudraa Rules I cannot share code of this ALGO [13 ] Market Outlook 30 Aug, 2013
Fib lvl NIFTY . Trend will be bullish only above 5573 [1 ] Market Outlook 26 Aug, 2013
What will be the range for September ? simple method [13 ] Market Outlook 23 Aug, 2013
When you are trading with the Major trend [2 ] General Discussion 22 Aug, 2013
Bank Nifty - support at Fib level 9323 possible ? [1 ] Market Outlook 18 Aug, 2013
NIFTY HS pattern ? Expert advice needed [22 ] General Discussion 10 Aug, 2013
Wealth of information is there - but people want calls [3 ] Learning Section 02 Aug, 2013
When is the bottom for N IFTY ? based on Daily 8/34 EMA [4 ] Market Outlook 01 Aug, 2013
1 to 50 of 84<< Previous Next

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