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Keshav Smith

Keshav Smith

City: mumbai

Joining Date: 31 Oct , 2011
Last Login: 11:24 PM - 26 Nov , 2014
IP Address of Last Login - 115.97.213xxx
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Reply for: nifty opening 09-07-13

Keshav Smith at 12:38 AM - Jul 09, 2013 ( )

Bears will be ready to strike once again tomorrow.

 

New Thread: Dollar no longer primary oil currency

Keshav Smith at 08:57 PM - Jan 26, 2013 ( )

On Sept. 11, Pastor Lindsey Williams, former minister to the global oil companies during the building of the Alaskan pipeline, announced the most significant event to affect the U.S. dollar since its inception as a currency. For the first time since the 1970's, when Henry Kissenger forged a trade agreement with the Royal house of Saud to sell oil using only U.S. dollars, China announced its intention to bypass the dollar for global oil customers and began selling the commodity using their own currency.

Lindsey Williams: "The most significant day in the history of the American dollar, since its inception, happened on Thursday, Sept. 6. On that day, something took place that is going to affect your life, your family, your dinner table more than you can possibly imagine."

"On Thursday, Sept. 6... just a few days ago, China made the official announcement. China said on that day, our banking system is ready, all of our communication systems are ready, all of the transfer systems are ready, and as of that day, Thursday, Sept. 6, any nation in the world that wishes from this point on, to buy, sell, or trade crude oil, can do using the Chinese currency, not the American dollar. - Interview with Natty Bumpo on the Just Measures Radio network, Sept. 11

This announcement by China is one of the most significant sea changes in the global economic and monetary systems, but was barely reported on due to its announcement taking place during the Democratic convention last week. The ramifications of this new action are vast, and could very well be the catalyst that brings down the dollar as the global reserve currency, and change the entire landscape of how the world purchases energy.

Ironically, since Sept. 6, the U.S. dollar has fallen from 81.467 on the index to today's price of 79.73. While analysts will focus on actions taking place in the Eurozone, and expected easing signals from the Federal Reserve on Thursday regarding the fall of the dollar, it is not coincidence that the dollar began to lose strength on the very day of China's announcement.

Since China is not a natural oil producing nation, the question most people will ask is how will the Asian economic power get enough oil to affect dollar hegemony? That question was also answered by Lindsey Williams when he pointed out a new trade agreement that was signed on Sept. 7 between China and Russia, in which the Russian Federation agreed to sell oil to China in any and all amounts they desired.

Lindsey Williams: "This has never happened in the history of crude oil. Since crude oil became the motivating force behind our (U.S.) entire economy, and everything in our lives revolves around crude oil. And since crude oil became the motivating factor behind our economy... never, ever has crude oil been sold, bought, traded, in any country in the world, without using the American dollar."

"Crude oil is the standard currency of the world. Not the Yen, not the Pound, not the Dollar. More money is transferred around the world in crude oil than in any other product."

"On Friday, Sept. 7, Russia announced, that as of today, we will supply China with all of the crude oil that they need, no matter how much they want... there is no limit. And Russia will not sell or trade this crude oil to China using the American dollar." -Interview with Natty Bumpo on the Just Measures Radio network, Sept. 11

These duo actions by the two most powerful adversaries of the U.S. economy and empire, have now joined in to make a move to attack the primary economic stronghold that keeps America as the most powerful economic superpower. Once the majority of the world begins to bypass the dollar, and purchase oil in other currencies, then the full weight of our debt and diminished manufacturing structure will come crashing down on the American people.

This new agreement between Russia and China also has serious ramifications in regards to Iran, and the rest of the Middle East. No longer will U.S. sanctions against Iran have a measurable affect, as the rogue nation can simply choose to sell its oil to China, and receive Yuan in return, and use that currency to trade for the necessary resources it needs to sustain its economy and nuclear programs.

The world changed last week, and there was nary a word spoken by Wall Street or by politicians who reveled in their own magnificence as this event took place during the party conventions. A major blow was done on Sept. 6 to the American empire, and to the power of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. And China, along with Russia, are now aiming to become the controllers of energy, and thus, controllers of a new petro-currency.

Reply for: WHAT IS GOING ON NIFTY AND SENSEX - ANY IDEA ?

Keshav Smith at 11:49 AM - Oct 05, 2012 ( )

NSE attributed the sharp drop to a freak trade.

New Thread: Is India the next Greece?

Keshav Smith at 10:18 PM - Sep 17, 2012 ( )

Is India the next Greece?

Since the dawn of the financial crisis in Europe, there is one name that has been talked about over and over again. It is that of Greece. The Mediterranean country has become an example of how spending beyond your means can lead to just one thing. Financial disaster. A disaster that has sunk the entire Euro zone into recession. Unfortunately unless India mends its ways, it is headed in the same direction. The country has a ballooning fiscal deficit. In the absence of policy reforms, this is all set to keep increasing. And eventually lead to India's downfall.

This is the opinion of the head of HDFC Bank, Mr Aditya Puri. He opines that India's government inaction is going to lead it on the path of a financial disaster. In his opinion all that the government is doing is playing the blame game. Each political party is blaming the other for inaction and corruption. Unfortunately this has taken away their focus on the core issue of running the country. Mr Puri feels that if each and every government official just did his job, then India is well poised to be a shining star in Asia.

And there seems to be quite a bit of logic in this statement. If we look at the other countries in the region things are not so bright. China is going through a slowdown. Korea is not doing too well either. As a result, India has a great opportunity to emerge as a star. But the government inaction and lethargy is pulling it back. In Mr Puri's opinion there are some crucial areas that the government needs to work on. These are addressing the fiscal deficit, solving the coal issue, transparent and clear policies on land acquisition, mining and environment, improving accountability and governance in government and public sector undertakings. Once action is taken in these areas, things are expected to improve in all likelihood.

Though, it is important to note that India's high domestic savings and consumption rate makes the economy far less vulnerable than Greece. Hence, investors should not be alarmed by Mr Puri's observations. However, there is no doubt that the government must act fast to respond to the economic crises. This means that they need to stop humiliating the nation by stalling parliament sessions and taking a jab at each other in the media. Instead doing their work like Mr Puri suggests would be a better idea. But are they willing to do this? We hope they do.

The fiscal deficit of India is headed for a toss. There are several factors that are being blamed for this. Subsidies, government's populist programs etc. are just some major reasons. But another major reason is on the revenue side. We are referring to the government's disinvestment program. In light of the volatile equity markets, the government ended up postponing most of its stake sale plans. Unfortunately the government has no choice but to go ahead with its proposed stake sales and that too before March 2013. Otherwise the fiscal deficit will definitely get worse and the government will miss its target by a huge mark. As a result, it has identified 5 companies where a stake sale could be seen. These are Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL), Hindustan Copper Ltd, Metals and Minerals Trading Corp (MMTC), Oil India Ltd and National Aluminium Co Ltd (NALCO). The thing that the government now needs to work on is getting the pricing right. Though it has not had a great track record on this front either, however, this time due to the shortage of time, it cannot afford to make too many mistakes. If the pricing is too high, the issue will fall through. If it is too low then the government's targets may never be achieved.

 How much can things change in the 45 days that fall between two monetary policy announcements? Well, a lot has transpired in this 1.5 month period. The US Fed has announced a fresh round of policy easing, popularly called as QE3. Plus the government has finally shown that it is taking reform measures seriously by announcing Foreign Direct Investment in a few sectors and raising diesel prices and reducing subsidy levels. Macro numbers in India however continue to remain poor. GDP growth is still below 6%, inflation remains high and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth is feeble.

Fearing an onslaught of higher commodity prices post the liquidity measures enacted by the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB), the central bank has decided to keep rates unchanged. However, in order to boost liquidity, the RBI reduced the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 0.25% to 4.5%. This will help inject Rs 170 bn into the system. This may please the SBI Chairman, who had a famous tussle over this ratio a few weeks earlier. A rate cut at this stage may have stoked inflation. As expected, the central bank has once again taken a conservative stance. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) caution coupled with the government's new found resolve may just help macro numbers going forward.

One look at the Indian stock market and you will know how relieved investors are with the government's baby steps in ushering reforms. Even ones like FDI in aviation, which is unlikely to bring in economic benefits for a very long time to come. For one, aviation turbine duel (ATF) in India is expensive. This means there is no cost advantage for even a well-funded global airline which might want to operate in the domestic sector. That apart, most Indian airline companies, particularly the listed ones, are in a bad shape financially. To top that, the sector faces numerous structural challenges. Not that every foreign airline is a welcome suitor. But ones that can compete effectively in Indian market have very few choices amongst incumbent players. So it will be quite a while before the FDI policy in aviation endows the sector with any riches. Meanwhile the ailments of the sector are yet to find some cure.

The capital goods sector was amongst the most favoured sectors by investors during the pre-2008 boom days. India's high growth phase coupled with strong investments in the infrastructure space drove the earnings and order books of companies (and stocks prices as well) forming part of this sector. It wouldn't be wrong to say that the investments in power - the key focus of the five-year plans - had a significant role to play in the fortunes of the sector.

The situation now, as you would know, is quite the opposite. And it is expected to remain like this for some time in the future! The key concerns include slowing investments (and therefore orders), excess capacities (in certain areas), unhealthy balance sheets, and the unwillingness of financial institutions to fund power projects. Regarding the latter, comparisons are being made to what the situation was way back in FY06. As reported by the Business Standard, project loan sanctions in the last quarter of FY12 stood at a figure of Rs 255 bn. This is the lowest level since FY06. Adding to the already long list of issues is the CAG's questioning of the coal block allocations - thereby putting all the related projects on hold.

Will the US Fed's latest attempt to drive the US economy higher work? Certainly not if Robert Wiedemer, the best-selling author of 'Aftershock' is to be believed. Talking to Moneynews.com, Wiedemer has argued that a recession seems unavoidable even though QE3 has been unleashed. This is because he believes that monetary policies can only set conditions that encourage investing and growth.

The real onus of job creation lies with the fiscal policy and what the other economies around the world are doing. And things are not looking good on both these fronts. The US, as we all know, is fast approaching a fiscal cliff. This is a condition where tax cuts will expire at the same time the Government will implement automatic spending cuts. Thus, this could well send the country sliding into recession if corrective measures are not taken. Besides, manufacturing, one of the key drivers of the US economy, would also slow down due to problems in Europe. In light of these factors, all that QE3 will end up doing is inflate stock prices without any marked improvement in the overall economic scenario.

New Thread: How America's Losing The War On Poverty

Keshav Smith at 01:50 PM - Aug 10, 2012 ( )

While President Obama and Gov. Romney battle for the hearts and minds of the middle class this election season, there's a huge swath of Americans that are largely ignored. It's the poor, and their ranks are growing.

According to a recent survey by The Associated Press, the number of Americans living at or below the poverty line will reach its highest point since President Johnson made his famous declaration of war on poverty in 1964.

Close to 16 percent of Americans now live at or below the poverty line. For a family of four, that's $23,000 a year. On top of that, 100 million of us — 1 out of 3 Americans — manage to survive on a household income barely twice that amount. How is this poverty crisis happening?

Across the nation, food banks are reporting giant spikes in demand. The food pantry in Webster Springs, W.Va., used to serve 30 families a month just three years ago. Today, 150 families in that county — of just 9,000 people — depend on the food pantry run by Catholic Charities.

Webster Springs is a hard-hit area. Two coal mines have closed down there in the past year. The median income is around $20,000. Yet the crisis is also taking place right in our nation's capital.

At the Capital Area Food Bank in Washington, D.C., forklifts move huge pallets of food around this giant warehouse. This year, they expect to give out 33 million pounds of food — a record. Close to 700,000 people in the region are now at risk of going hungry.

"In my lifetime, I've never seen anything as bad as now," says Lynn Brantley, who runs the facility. She's been working with food pantries for four decades and describes what's happening today as a hunger crisis. "It's growing into the middle class."

Who Is Poor?

There is increasing overlap between those who used to be firmly in the middle class and those who are poor. Most Americans who are poor are still white, but that's also changing, says Angela Blackwell, who runs PolicyLink, a research and advocacy organization that focuses on poverty.

"The face of poverty for the nation has changed from being white to being black and Latino," she tells weekends on All Things Considered host Guy Raz. "That's made a difference, too, because when people thought of poverty as being white and elderly there was more general sympathy in the country and more commitment to do something about it."

It's estimated that the percentage of Americans living in poverty will increase to 15.7 percent this year, the highest in 50 years. "That shocking statistic really only represents the people who live below the official poverty level," Blackwell says. "But you have twice that number [of] people who are living near poverty."

Low-Wage Jobs Keep Incomes Low

In 1988, President Ronald Reagan delivered a State of the Union address in which he declared that the war on poverty had failed. Now, with the poverty rate in America expected to reach its highest rate since 1965, it looks like Reagan may have been right.

"One reason is we're still in a recession," Edelman says. "We've had a change in our economy over the last 40 years that has produced a flood of low-wage jobs."

One half of all jobs in the U.S. today now pay less than $35,000 a year. Adjusted for inflation, that's one of the lowest rates for American workers in five decades.

There's a common perception that somebody who's poor or living below the poverty level is lazy or simply living off government handouts. Edelman says the actual average poor person is working.

"And working as hard as she or he possibly can," he says. "And particularly in the recession, not able to get work or steady work. There are certainly people who make bad choices, but the fundamental question in our economy is the number of people who are doing absolutely everything they can to support their families — and they just can't make it."

Some Battles Won, But Threats Loom

Back when LBJ declared his war on poverty, being poor looked very different than it does today. Traveling in Mississippi with Robert Kennedy in 1967, Edelman saw children with bloated bellies and sores that wouldn't heal. There was real hunger and real malnutrition.

"The food stamp program is a tremendous success," he says. "But since that time, it turns out that children are the poorest age group in our country because their families — typically single moms trying to make it — can't do so because of this flood of low-wage work that we have."

Many economists say that when the economy does recover, a lot of the jobs that were lost won't be coming back. That suggests the possibility of significantly high unemployment for a long time — maybe even a permanently large class of Americans who live in poverty. Blackwell says we can act to prevent that future. "And it's not rocket science."

"We know now that by 2018, 45 percent of all jobs in this nation will require at least an associate's degree," she says. "We could invest in the system of training — particularly focusing on community colleges and preparing people to go to four-year institutions and improving our high school education."

"We actually have extraordinary infrastructure in this country, from the manufacturing base we once had," she continues. "We need to retool it, we need to refit it, we need to make sure that it's ready for the kind of advanced manufacturing that we're seeing develop in other countries."

New Thread: Europe's economies showing weakness

Keshav Smith at 01:29 PM - Aug 10, 2012 ( )

Europe's biggest economies are showing weakness, a sign that the struggles of their heavily indebted neighbors are spreading.

The central banks of France and Britain, Europe's second- and third-largest economies, made grim forecasts on Wednesday, while data from Germany, its largest economy, showed a weakening in manufacturing.

Europe - including the 17 countries that use the euro - has struggled for three years as economies face deepening recessions. Spain and Italy are threatened with a financial collapse and could soon join Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Cyprus in seeking financial assistance. That would stretch the eurozone's already fragile economy to breaking point.

A continued recession in Europe would be felt around the world. Europe is the largest U.S. export customer. A fall-off in demand would hit order books, and jobs, in the United States. Companies around the world have recently warned that a continued contraction in Europe would hurt their bottom lines.

McDonald's, the fast-food chain, reported flat growth in its sales for July on Wednesday - pushed down, in part, by a 0.6 percent dip in meals served in Europe. The region accounts for 40 percent of McDonald's business.

Here's a look at economic conditions in Europe:

United Kingdom: The U.K.'s economy likely will stagnate this year, according to the Bank of England. In its quarterly Inflation Report released Wednesday, the U.K.'s monetary authority scaled back its forecast for 2012, saying the economy would not grow overall in 2012 in spite of returning to growth in the second half of the year. The country, though not a member of the euro bloc, has felt the effects of Europe's downturn and has been in recession since the last quarter of 2011.

Germany: Industrial production and exports in Germany dropped in June, highlighting concerns that Europe's debt crisis is weighing on the region's biggest economy.

Industrial production was down 0.9 percent in June from the previous month, the Economy Ministry said. That figure followed a 1.7 percent increase in May.

The German economy so far has been relatively unscathed by the debt crisis afflicting its eurozone partners. But second-quarter output figures due next week are expected to show growth slowing and business confidence fading.

France: France's central bank added a further note of pessimism Wednesday when it predicted the country would slip into recession in the third quarter.

The Banque de France said Wednesday that the country's economy was expected to contract by 0.1 percent in the third quarter. The bank had already said the economy would shrink the same amount in the second quarter.

Reply for: INVITATION TO ALL llllllllllllllll ( HEMANT )

Keshav Smith at 10:29 AM - Aug 10, 2012 ( )

Thanks for the invitation. Wishing you a very happy Janmashtami. Enjoy the day.

New Thread: Govt has 'badly lost its way', hurting economy: Moody's

Keshav Smith at 10:22 AM - Aug 10, 2012 ( )

The Indian government is the "single biggest factor weighing on business confidence and the economic outlook", Moody's Analytics said on Thursday while revising downwards the GDP estimate for Asia's third-largest economy to 5.5% in 2012-13.

It said the economic slowdown in India was sharper and more broad-based than anticipated and was now deeply entrenched across all sectors of the economy. "There has been little policy response from either the Reserve Bank of India or the government and with the global uncertainty dragging on, we see nothing on the horizon to lift the economy from its funk," said Glenn Levine, senior economist at Moody's Analytics, adding that the second factor was the poor monsoon which was running well below average.

The agency, which is a division of Moody's Corporation, said the slowdown was the most pronounced in the country's corporate sector.

"Confidence among Indian firms has been crushed by weak demand, elevated interest rates, high inflation and most significantly, the instability created by a weak central government that has badly lost its way," Levine said in the report titled 'India Outlook: Below Potential'. The agency lowered the growth estimate for 2013 to 6% from the previous estimate of 6.2%.

In June, global ratings agency Standard & Poor's had cautioned that India could be the first among BRIC countries at risk of losing its investment-grade rating due to slowing GDP growth and political roadblocks to reforms. S&P had said that a divided leadership at the Centre might be the biggest hurdle to reforms.

The deficient monsoon and slowdown in economic reforms have added to the gloom and led to a raft of downgrades on GDP growth for 2012-13.

Moody's Analytics said in its report that the prime minister has one final opportunity to salvage his legacy. "With two years left in office, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh must turn things around quickly or risk becoming a lame duck for the remainder of his term, leaving behind a legacy of missed opportunity," Levine said.

The Congress said the government was taking all steps to enable the economy to return to a high growth path. "All the steps needed for India to return to a high growth trajectory are being taken. However, we cannot be oblivious to the fact that a sluggish global economy does impact us too. But the prediction made by Moody's seems a stretch and perhaps betrays a lack of understanding about the robust fundamentals of the Indian economy," party spokesman Manish Tewari said.

But the Moody's Analytics report gave a fresh handle to the opposition to slam the government on its reforms record. "For all practical purposes, the PM is already a lame duck. He doesn't lead either in Parliament or outside," BJP leader and former finance minister Yashwant Sinha said. "I must confess that I find these comments on India's PM very humiliating. But it cannot be denied that while the government may try and hide the truth from our own people, keen observers abroad are not deceived."

Levine said finance minister P Chidambaram was making all the right noises, with pledges to curb the government deficit and lift business confidence and investment but bold measures were needed to revive and restore the health of the economy.

"While we applaud the intent of the new finance minister, it all has the feel of being a quick fix, last-ditch effort to avert the economy from its downward spiral. But an economy is a complex combination of millions of different units—households, firms, government entities and so forth—that cannot be easily manipulated using tricks or quick fixes, at least not over a prolonged period," Levine said.

"We will need to see sustained pro-growth policies before we start to consider the Indian government anything but a sizeable drag on economic activity," he said. The agency expects growth to rumble along at 5-6% to mid-2013 and said that risks to the outlook remained elevated and weighed to the downside.

 

Reply for: You may have to pay just 10% duty on Porsche and BMW

Keshav Smith at 09:08 PM - Aug 08, 2012 ( )

Time to think about our heavily protected Indian automobile industry !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

New Thread: You may have to pay just 10% duty on Porsche and BMW

Keshav Smith at 09:02 PM - Aug 08, 2012 ( )

NEW DELHI: Cars manufactured in the European Union, including luxury makes such as Porsche and BMW, could be available in India at prices only marginally higher than in Europe as the government is likely to agree to a 10% duty on a fixed quota of cars imported from the EU as part of a free-trade agreement being negotiated between the two sides.

India is considering allowing imports of 2.5 lakh car on which only a 10% tariff will be levied, compared to the normal rate of 60%, marking the first significant challenge the heavily protected Indian automobile industry has had to face from imports. The imports will be spread over five years, starting with 40,000 cars in the first year and rising by 5,000 units every year thereafter.

"We may bring down tariff to a low level of 10% for a fixed quota of cars every year for five years. We think our industry can deal with this," a government official told ET.

New Delhi is also considering reducing import tariffs by half from 60% to 30% for cars outside the quota once the proposed India-EU free trade agreement is implemented.

The European Union is keen that India commit itself to extending the liberalized import regime for the quota of 2.5 lakh cars beyond five years, but New Delhi has said that it will review the situation after five years.

"We want to keep some room for maneuver if the need arises,' the official said. Greater market access for automobiles, wines & whiskies is on top of the EU's wish list for the FTA, formally called the bilateral trade and investment agreement.

New Thread: Hilsa fish

Keshav Smith at 08:54 PM - Aug 08, 2012 ( )

Hilsa selling at Rs.1,500


 
Kolkata, Aug 8 (IANS) The monsoon delicacy Hilsa, without which a Bengali platter is never complete, has been selling between Rs.1,000 and Rs.1,500 and a state minister says the silvery delight will continue to be elusive as its prices soar courtesy a truant monsoon and decline in imports.

 "The spurt in the prices has been mostly because of the alarming decline in the supply of the fish from both internal and external sources. The fall of the rupee has also contributed as imports from Bangladesh are paid in dollars," West Bengal Fisheries Minister Abu Henna told IANS.

In city markets, the prices of the Hilsa have been ranging between Rs.1,000-Rs.1,500 depending upon the size and quality of the fish. The prices of the fish, which are normally exported by Bangladesh at $8-$12 per kg have also gone up sharply, said the minister.
While the scanty rainfall has resulted in decline in spawning of the fish within the country, a temporary ban on the export of the Hilsa by Bangladesh has compounded the misery.
"The fish is spawned mostly in the Hooghly in the east and Narmada in the west. The scanty rainfall has resulted in a sharp decline in their breeding, which is why the supply has been so low," said Henna, adding that the catch from the Hooghly this year has gone below 20,000 tonnes, while in the previous year it was close to 60,000 tonnes.
On the brighter side, however, the minister hoped the supply would improve after Eid when Bangladesh is expected to resume the export of the fish.
"We hope the situation will improve after Ramzan. We are also exploring other avenues to increase the supply, but it all depends upon the monsoon," Henna added.

New Thread: BEWARE AND BE CAUTIOUS OF BULLS & BEARS

Keshav Smith at 03:08 PM - Aug 08, 2012 ( )

 “ THE DARK CLOUDS ARE GETTING OVER INDIA IN THE FORM OF DROUGHT.THE BAD EFFECT OF SUCH A SITUATION WILL BE AS FOLLOWS” :

1.THE INDIAN ECONOMY IS WEAK ALREADY AND THE ENSUING DROUGHT WILL ADD FIRE TO IT.

2.THE FOOD STOCK IS GOOD FROM THE LAST YEAR’S LEFT OVER, BUT, THE NEW DROUGHT WILL PROP UP PRICE OF ALL ITEMS.

3.COUNTRY WILL HAVE TO IMPORT LARGE AMOUNT OF PULSES AND EDIBLE OIL, THEREBY LOSING PRECIOUS FOREIN EXCHANGE.

4.THIS PRICE RISE WILL PROP UP INFLATION AND THE PRICE OF RISE HAS RISEN BY 10% ALREADY AND WHICH WILL PROP UP INFLATION FURTHER.

5.THERE WILL BE DRINKING WATER PROBLEMS AS THE TELUNGU GANGA, KAVERI ETC ARE DRIED UP AFFECTING TAMIL NADU AND BANGALORE (KARNATAKA).

6.IN 2009, THIS HAS HAPPENED AND INFLATION REACHED DOUBLE DIGIT FIGURE.

7.EXPORT WILL COME DOWN AND IMPORT WILL GO UP, THERE BY US$ vs INR WILL GO UP AGAIN WHICH WILL AGRAVTE THE ALREADY WORSE SITUATION

8.IF US$ GOES UP AGAIN IT WILL HAVE GREAT IMPACT ON FOREIGN LOANS, FCCBs AND IMPORT OF CRUDE WHICH WILL AGAIN PROP UP INFLATION.

9.CURRENT A/C AND FISCAL DIFICT WILL GO UP AND WILL BECOME UNMANAGEABLE.

10.HYDEL POWER WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR 40% OF INDIA’S POWER GENERATION CAPACITY AND MORE LOADS WILL FALL ON THERMAL GENERATION WHICH CAN CRIPPLE AND FREQUENT CASCADING AND POWER CUTS WILL HAPPEN (AS HAPPENED LAST WEEK).

11.THIS WILL CRIPPLE PRODUCTION AND USING OF DG SETS WILL ADD TO COST AND INFLATION.

12.RESERVE BANK WILL BE FORCED TO RAISE INTEREST RATE WHICH WILL FURTHER AGRAVTE THE SITUATION.

13.GDP WILL COME DOWN DRASTICALLY - FROM 8.5% TO 6%, OR EVEN FURTHER.

14.IF INDIA’S GDP IS US$ 3 TRILLION (US$ 3,000 BLN) THEN THERE WILL BE A REDUCTION OF (2.5%)OR US$ 75 BILLION IN GDP WHICH IS RS. 412,500 CRORES, WHICH IS A BIG AMOUNT FOR INDIA.

15.FARMERS WILL NOT HAVE SURPLUS MONEY AND THIS WILL REDUCE BUYING POWER AND REDUCE BUSINESS ACTIVITIES.

16.VEHICLE SALES AND FMCG SALES WILL COME DOWN, TRACTOR AND TRUCK SALES WILL BE AFFECTED.

17.BANKS HAVE ADVANCED BIG AMOUNTS TO FARMERS AND THE FARMERS WILL BE FORCED TO DEFAULT LOAN REPAYMENTS.

18.THIS WILL CREATE NPAs IN BANKS AND PROFITS OF BANKS CAN COME DOWN.

19.THIS WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON STOCK MARKETS AS BANKS HAVE 27% WEIGHTAGE ON NIFTY INDEX.

20.SUBSIDIES ON DIESEL, LPG, FERTILISER ETC WILL GET INCREASED WHICH IS AGAINST THE DECLARED POLICY.

21.STAES WILL HAVE DIFICIT AND WILL ASK HIGHER LOANS OR SUBSIDY OR GRANT FROM CEBTRAL GOVERNMENT.

22.IN 2009 THE DIFICIT IN RAIN FALL WAS 24% AND IN 2012, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN THAT.

23.IF THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT EVN IN AUGUST, THEN THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST DROUGHT IN LAST 50 YEARS IN INDIAN HISTORY.

24.EVENTHOUGH US & EUROPE MARKET SHOW RESILIANCE, IT CANNOT BE THE SAME CASE WITH INDIA.

25.THE FIIs ARE PUMPING IN QE (QUANTITATIVE EASING) MONEY WITHOUT LOOKING EITHER SIDE IN INDIA NOW.

26.ANY ARTIFICIAL PROP UP OF STOCK MARKET IS DANGEROUS AND IT CAN BURST ANY TIME.

27.WITHOUT CORRESPONDING FOUNDATION IN FUNDAMENTALS NOTHING CAN HOLD FOR LONG.

28.EVENTHOUGH INDIAN GOVERNMENT HAS THE CAPACITY AND EXPERIENCE TO TIDE OVER SUCH SITUATION THE COALITION PARTIES AND NON CONGRESS GOVERNMENTS WILL SQUEECE THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FOR FUNDS.

29.SO, BEWARE AND BE CAUTIOUS HEREAFTER AS THE FIIs WILL TURN SELLERS AT ANY MOMENT AND THE POOR PEOPLE WILL GET TRAPPED.

BULLS AND BEARS WILL MAKE MONEY, BUT, THE POOR PIGS WILL GET SLAUGHTERED ”..

Reply for: Only Options - BPCL

Keshav Smith at 03:02 PM - Aug 08, 2012 ( )

appreciating your honesty

 

New Thread: Critical Warning Number Six by Michael Lombardi

Keshav Smith at 08:54 PM - Jul 28, 2012 ( )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0e7e23Fm_M

Pls take time to watch this video. Prevention is better than cure.

Reply for: Congrats to Mr. N.D. Tiwaree

Keshav Smith at 08:51 PM - Jul 27, 2012 ( )

We Indians are to be blamed for all the lavishness of our unqualified politicians. Our individual helplessness is the key factor of their growth.

Reply for: THE POWER OF MONEY.

Keshav Smith at 08:54 PM - Jul 25, 2012 ( )

magnificient

Reply for: THE COMPANY PHONE.

Keshav Smith at 08:52 PM - Jul 25, 2012 ( )

witty one

Reply for: THE WOMAN AND HER CAR KEYS.

Keshav Smith at 08:51 PM - Jul 25, 2012 ( )

A good one

 

Reply for: THE MAN WHO WORE A SANITARY NAPKIN.

Keshav Smith at 03:43 PM - Jul 23, 2012 ( )

His dedication and sincerity is truly impeccable. A genuine gem of India.

Reply for: JOKE OF THE DAY lllllllllllll ( HEMANT )

Keshav Smith at 12:43 PM - Jul 07, 2012 ( )

good one

Reply for: Is this the biggest land scam of India?

Keshav Smith at 12:14 PM - Jul 07, 2012 ( )

Moneylife » Life » Public Interest » Powai land scam: Hiranandani, senior IAS officer under ACB scanner

Powai land scam: Hiranandani, senior IAS officer under ACB scanner 

Moneylife Digital Team  July 04, 2012 03:13 PM | 

New Thread: Is this the biggest land scam of India?

Keshav Smith at 12:35 AM - Jul 07, 2012 ( )

Just recently the CBI charge sheeted former Maharashtra chief minister Ashok Chavan, besides 12 others, in the multi-crore Adarsh Housing Society scam. But this would be peanuts compared to another alleged scam in another part of Mumbai.

If the allegations stated in an article in Moneylife are true, the Hiranandani township in Powai, which is famous for its luxurious and lavish architecture, could be the biggest land scam of India. The report states that back in 1977, the Powai Area Development Scheme was approved to develop 344 acres of land. As per the law then, the acquired land could only be used for mass housing. The article points out that Mr Niranjan Hiranandani, the founder of Hirco and co-founder of the Hiranandani Group, acquired 341 acres of land at just Re 1 per hectare. In other words, free of cost.

But that was just one part of the story. The article further reported that out of the government-sanctioned land, the developer utilised only a part of it. On the remaining portion of land, he built luxurious flats and sold them at premium prices. Activist Santosh Daundkar, the complainant in this case, has alleged that "the developer cheated the state government by using government land for his own benefit." As per former IPS officer and lawyer YP Singh who argued the case before the court on behalf of the complainant, "several politicians and bureaucrats were bribed as this fraud and game of corruption went on openly in the last 20 years. It is suspected that hundreds of flats were doled out as bribes to many politicians and bureaucrats to facilitate the fraud. Time will indeed unravel the truth if the investigation goes on honestly, efficiently and on the desired lines." As reported in the article, he estimates the size of the scam to be more than Rs 450 bn based on current rates.

This is yet another shocking exposure of how deeply the corruption gene is ingrained in India. But that is not all. This also shows the meekness of laws pertaining to land rights and ownership, as well as the flaws in the executive machinery. In a previous article, we had discussed how the crucial Land Titling Bill has been in a state of limbo for a quarter century. Unfortunately, we may have to wait another decade before seeing some meaningful land reforms.

Reply for: DADDY BEAR ON PROWL

Keshav Smith at 02:54 PM - Jul 04, 2012 ( )

High frequency software to show its true colours. Matter of time.

New Thread: Brent climbs to hover near $98 on Iran, Norway strike

Keshav Smith at 02:26 PM - Jul 03, 2012 ( )

Brent crude rose on Tuesday to hover near $98 per barrel, as worries supply would be hit if Iran shuts a key shipping route helped offset demand concerns stoked by gloomy global manufacturing data.

News that Iranian lawmakers had drafted a bill calling for Iran to shut off the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic amid mounting Western sanctions spurred gains in oil prices at a time when a strike in Norway has already curbed crude oil output.

More than a third of the world's seaborne oil exports pass through the narrow strait from the oilfields of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

Brent crude gained 25 cents to $97.59 per barrel by 3.28 a.m. EDT, after earlier hitting an intraday high of $98.35.

U.S. crude rose by 38 cents to $84.13, after earlier rising to a high of $84.63.

"Iran is always a factor and it has the potential to have a dramatic impact on oil prices," said Ben Le Brun, a markets analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney.

"Traders are also expecting to see a policy response from China and a potential for more stimulus from the U.S. Federal reserve to support the economy."

Weak data from top two consumers of oil, the United States and China, has fuelled expectations of measures from these governments to ease monetary policy, which could stimulate demand growth.

Recent data showed U.S. manufacturing shrinking for the first time in nearly three years and factory activity in China slipping to a seven-month low.

The intractable debt crisis in the euro zone also continues to blur the demand landscape for commodities. Initial euphoria over a European agreement to use rescue funds to lower government borrowing costs faded after indications from Finland that the deal could be fraying.

But analysts at Goldman Sachs expect oil demand to grow well in excess of production capacity growth, despite the notable slowdown in global economic growth.

"It is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand, keeping it in line with available supply," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Tuesday.

A bright spot for oil demand was data from China which showed its services sector expanding at its fastest pace in three months.

IRAN TENSION

Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has drafted a bill to try and stop crude oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz to countries that support sanctions against it.

The bill, which comes on the heels of a European Union embargo on Iran's oil, would still require support from the leadership to come into effect.

Iranian threats to block the waterway, through which about 17 million barrels a day sailed in 2011, have grown in the past year as U.S. and European sanctions aimed at starving Tehran of funds for its nuclear program have tightened.

Tehran says its nuclear plans are for peaceful purposes such as generating electricity and medical isotopes and not for weapons development.

Iran's crude oil exports - which according to EU estimates represent half the government's income - have fallen by 40 percent this year.

Oil supplies have also tightened due to a strike by Norway's offshore oil and gas workers, which has started to slow crude oil exports.

Investors are now keeping an eye on U.S. crude inventory data for fresh trading cues. U.S. crude stocks may have fallen last week, according to a Reuters survey of analysts

New Thread: The European economy sinks

Keshav Smith at 10:45 AM - Jul 03, 2012 ( )

The success of last week’s EU summit needed to be measured on a political scale not an economic one. There were obviously economic ramifications from the outcome, but the ratification of whatever they eventually turn out to be is likely to take many months of further politicking.

In the meantime the downward pressure on the economy due to implementation of government sector austerity against de-leveraging private sectors continues to show in the statistics. As was said yesterday:

The problems of Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus and Ireland exist today as they did on Thursday. The outcome of this summit has further solidified the implementation of the fiscal compact which is guaranteed to slow the economy of Europe further …

During the conference there were two announcements that were under-reported due to the timing. Firstly there was some announcements out of France:

The French economy posted zero growth in the first quarter of this year following a weak 0.1% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2011.

INSEE had forecast earlier this week that the French economy would grow only 0.4% in 2012, slightly less than the 0.5% previously forecast and budgeted by the government.

“France will suffer from a contraction in internal demand from its euro zone partners, which will hurt exports, and its efforts to consolidate its budget,” INSEE’s research director Eric Dubois had said.

This news appears to have led to some warnings from French auditors about France’s economic metrics:

France will have to find 6-10 billion euros ($7.6-12.6 billion) this year and a massive 33 billion in 2013 to meet its European deficit targets, or risk unnerving financial markets, the state auditor told the new Socialist government on Monday.

Responding to President Francois Hollande’s request for a thorough review of state finances, the Court of Auditors – a quasi-judicial body responsible for overseeing public accounts – said a revenue shortfall was threatening deficit goals.

The news from Spain wasn’t much different:

Spain’s economy will contract at a faster rate in the second quarter than in the first three months of the year, economic indicators suggest, the Bank of Spain said in its monthly bulletin published on Wednesday.

The economy shrunk by 0.3 percent from January to March on a quarterly basis, as Spain fell back into recession for the first time in three years.

Overnight we also had Euro area unemployment which continues to set records that no one can be proud of:

Euro area unemployment rate at 11.1% - EU27 at 10.3%

The euro area1 (EA17) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.1% in May 2012, compared with 11.0% in April. It was 10.0% in May 2011. The EU27  unemployment rate was 10.3% in May 2012, compared with 10.2% in April. It was 9.5% in May 2011.

Eurostat estimates that 24.868 million men and women in the EU27, of whom 17.561 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in May 2012. Compared with April 2012, the number of persons unemployed increased by 151 000 in the EU27 and by 88 000 in the euro area. Compared with May 2011, unemployment rose by 1.952 million in the EU27 and by 1.820 million in the euro area.

And then there was the latest manufacturing PMIs:

Eurozone manufacturing PMI 

Deteriorating manufacturing conditions in June round off weakest quarter for three years

  • Manufacturing PMI holds at 45.1 in June
  • Widespread declines in output and new orders; Ireland and Austria only nations to see growth
  • Weak demand leads to lower input costs and selling prices

June PMI data signalled that the downturn in the Eurozone manufacturing sector extended to an eleventh successive month. Production and new orders suffered further severe contractions, leading to the steepest job losses since January 2010.

At 45.1 in June, unchanged from the previous month, the final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® was up slightly from its earlier flash estimate of 44.8. However, the rate of decline signalled was identical to May, when operating conditions deteriorated at the fastest pace for almost three years. Over the second quarter as a whole, the PMI registered its lowest average reading (45.4) since the second quarter of 2009.

The Germany PMI data once again shows that the crisis has made its way to the core of Europe and, although the Greek data continues to be extremely poor, it is the data from both Italy and Spain that is now the major point of concern. Spanish data is now at 37 month lows and deteriorating rapidly, while Italy shows the same trend. Only Ireland is showing any real improvement, most probably due to the fact that its main trading partner is not European.

Obviously these outcomes were predictable and the expected result of supra-European austerity at a time when many nations have private sectors still trying to recover from the aftermath of the GFC. One of the lines I hear bantered around quite a lot is that ‘you can’t get out of debt with more debt’ which, dependent on the situation, I’m not sure is always true. However, what I do know is true is that you can’t reduce your debt to GDP ratio if your GDP is falling faster than your debt. Something to think about maybe? I am thinking of you, Jörg Asmussen, a German member of the ECB executive board, who reckons that everyone’s simply not trying hard enough.

New Thread: Not possible to achieve 7.6 per cent growth target: Mon

Keshav Smith at 03:30 PM - Jul 02, 2012 ( )

The Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia has said that it is not possible for India to achieve the 7.6 per cent growth target set earlier this year. His statement assumes significance in light of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh taking over the Finance Ministry.

Speaking to Karan Thapar on Devil's Advocate, Montek said that it was more realistic to expect and 6.5-7 per cent GDP growth, adding that it was imperative to restore faith in India's growth story.

New Thread: Euro zone factories hit hard in June, job cuts rise

Keshav Smith at 03:25 PM - Jul 02, 2012 ( )

Euro zone manufacturing took another hefty blow in June and factories are preparing for worse to come, according to business surveys on Monday that showed jobs were cut at the fastest rate in two-and-a-half years.

Markit's Euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was unchanged at 45.1 in June, above the preliminary reading of 44.8 and holding at its lowest reading since June 2009.

Anchored below 50 mark that divides growth and contraction for almost a year now, the survey again showed factories in the region's two biggest economies, Germany and France, are succumbing to a downturn that started in southern Europe.

"Companies are clearly preparing for worse to come, cutting back on both staff numbers and stocks of raw materials at the fastest rates for two-and-a-half years," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at data provider Markit.

"The PMI suggests that the goods-producing sector contracted by around 1 percent in the second quarter, with this steep rate of decline looking set to accelerate further as we move into the second half of the year."

Released on the heels of a summit of European Union leaders in which they agreed to help Spain and Italy borrow more affordably, the survey only highlighted the huge challenge policymakers face in restoring the currency union's economic fortunes.

Alarmingly, the survey's employment index fell to 46.7 in June, its lowest since January 2010, from 47.1 in the previous month, signalling accelerating job cuts.

With companies like French carmaker Renault last month announcing plans to cut jobs, the factory payrolls look unlikely to recover soon.

The factory output index rose just a tad to 44.7 from 44.6 in May, but still signifying a sharp contraction.

Similar surveys released earlier on Monday showed German and Spanish manufacturing shrank at its fastest pace in three years in June, while the pace of contraction in French and Italian factories eased a little bit.

Signs of easing price pressure provided one of the few positives in the survey. The input price index hit its lowest in three years and the output price index was at its lowest since February 2010.

While toiling against recession in many countries, euro zone manufacturers have at least been aided by a sharp fall in oil prices, which helped keep inflation steady at a 16-month low in June, according to data released on Friday.

That adds weight to economists' belief the European Central Bank will to cut interest rates on Thursday to a new record low of 0.75%. They also said they may have to take more emergency measures to soothe financial markets, a Reuters poll last week found.

New Thread: Financial ‘Armageddon’ Will Happen Despite EU Deal

Keshav Smith at 07:42 AM - Jul 02, 2012 ( )

Even as markets cheered the agreement by European leaders to allow the direct use of the bloc’s bailout funds to recapitalize struggling banks, well-known investor Jim Rogers told CNBC the move does nothing to help solve the region’s biggest problem, which is its high debt levels.

“Just because now you have a way to get them (the banks) to borrow even more money, this is not solving the problem, this is making the problem worse,” Rogers said on Friday.

“People need to stop spending money they don’t have. The solution to too much debt is not more debt. All this little agreement does is give them (banks) a chance to have even more debt for a while longer,” he added.

After negotiating late into the night, European policymakers agreed on Friday morning that the bloc's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), would be able to lend directly to recapitalize banks without increasing a country's budget deficit, and without preferential seniority status.

Summit leaders also agreed that euro area rescue funds could also be used to stabilize bond markets without forcing countries that comply with EU budget rules to adopt extra austerity measures or economic reforms.

Countries such as Spain and Italy have been burdened with sky-high borrowing costs – levels seen as unsustainable for governments in the long term.

Rogers argues that the deal does not improve the solvency of indebted nations such as Spain. Spain's central government budget deficit has soared to 3.41 percent of GDP in the first five months of 2012, above the EU limit of 3 percent.

He adds that the governments need to stop coming to the rescue of failing banks, even if it results in “financial Armageddon.”

“What would make me very excited is if a few people went bankrupt or a few people started paying off their debt. We are going to have financial Armageddon anyways, when the rest of the world is not going to give these people any more money.”

“What are you going to do in two, three, four years when the market suddenly says ‘no more money’ and the Germans don’t have more money and the American debt has gone through the roof.”

Rogers says the market euphoria brought on by the news, which saw a surge in Asian stocks, the euro and risk assets like oil, will not last.

“How many times has this happened in the last three years – they (EU leaders) have had a meeting, the markets have rallied, two days later the market says wait a minute this doesn’t solve the problem,” he said.

Rogers, who is an advocate of commodities-based investing, says he is not adding any positions at the moment.

“I own commodities, I’m delighted they are going up today – they are going up a lot. I’m not jumping into anything.”

 

Reply for: " something is cooking in China "

Keshav Smith at 06:56 AM - Jul 02, 2012 ( )

On October 22, Lang Xianping, an economics professor
at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, gave a private talk in Shenyang City in Liaoning Province.
He cited statistics showing why the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
is trapped in an economic crisis and is at brink of bankruptcy.
Some scholars say that Lang's conclusion is not surprising at all,
for they themselves hold the same the view.

Lang Xianping's speech, which was widely circulated online,
pointed out that
the CCP's official published growth rate of 9.1% and
its inflation rate of 6.2%, are false.
Instead he says, China as a nation, is bankrupt.

Lang Xianping: "The 9.1% figure is false.The inflation rate of
6.2% is also false. Inflation has reached at least 16%!
Do you know how to calculate the gross domestic product
(GDP) figure? Nine minus six.
The actual growth rate, according to the CCP's data,
should be less than 3%.
What if the inflation rate was 16%?
What's the GDP growth rate? Minus seven percent. The situation is this serious."

Professor Lang said that all of the CCP's current policies are
covering up the deep, murky reality of China's economy.
He cited the Purchasing Managers Index to explain that
back to early July, China's economy entered a recession.

Lang Xianping: "The Purchasing Managers Index,
which was just released, showed a reading above 50.
This indicates normal economic growth, while below 50
means the country is entering into a recession.
Now among China, the U.S., and Europe, let me tell you,
the first country that has gone into recession is China.
It started in July. But has anyone reported the news?
No. Why? No one is allowed to report it."

Now, China's stock market fell from 3,000 points in April,
to 2,313 points in October.
But other markets such as property, cars, luxury goods,
antiques, and art, among others, are really booming.
The co-existence of such a bleak winter and boiling summer
can only take place in China.
The basic reason is that China's manufacturing Industry crisis
has just begun.

Lang Xianping: "Field research conducted by
The Economic Observer, a weekly Chinese newspaper,
shows that the production rate of the apparel industry
in Jiangsu Prov. and Zhejiang Prov., is less than 33%.
The plastic industry is 50%, the rubber industry is 60%,
the soybeans extraction industry is less than 30%.
My own survey shows that at present,
60% of all Leather-processing plants have shut down in Haining, China."

Professor Lang also cited that although the total capacity of
China's power plants is 916 million kilowatts, the utilization rate is only 40%.
By June 20, the volume of iron ore piled up in China's
various ports has reached 98.9 million tons,
far more than the 7,098 tons imported
during the period of financial crisis of last few years.
This data shows that in reality, in China,
an economic depression has begun.

Lang pointed out that 70% of China's GDP came from
infrastructure construction, which, in reality, has not brought any economic benefits to the country.
For example, before the former Soviet Union collapsed,
70% of its GDP relied on military engineering projects.
The current situation in China is very similar to that of
former Soviet Union, at that time.
Once China's manufacturing industry pillar collapses,
the country's seemingly impressive infrastructure construction, won't last longer.

Reply for: Who is the best candidate for indian president ?

Keshav Smith at 09:25 PM - Jun 30, 2012 ( )

T N Seshan will undoubtedly be the best president India will see, provided he gets a mandate. Complete constitutional knowledge, determination, patriotism and will power is his hallmark.

Wish there were more outstanding personalities like him in India. India badly deserves T N Seshan.

New Thread: current account deficit widens

Keshav Smith at 09:39 PM - Jun 29, 2012 ( )

India's current account deficit (CAD) widened to the highest ever level to 4.5 per cent of GDP at USD 21.7 billion in January-March period of 2011-12 due to higher imports of oil and gold, the Reserve Bank said today.

For the entire financial year 2011-12, CAD, which represents the difference between exports and imports after considering cash remittances and payments, stood at 4.2 per cent of GDP at USD 78.2 billion-- again the all-time high level.

"On account of large trade deficit, the CAD rose sharply to USD 21.7 billion in Q4 from USD 6.3 billion in Q4 of 2010-11. At this level, CAD worked out 4.5 per cent of GDP (the highest ever) in Q4 of 2011-12 as compared with 1.3 per cent a year ago," RBI said while releasing the Balance of Payment (BoP) statement.

It further said that during 2011-12, "CAD widened to the highest ever level both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP,"

CAD was USD 46 billion or 2.7 per cent of the GDP in 2010-11.

"Despite the slowdown in economic activity and rupee depreciation, growth in merchandise imports moderated only mildly from 27.7 per cent in March quarter of 2010-11 to 22.6 per cent in the same period of 2011-12, reflecting inelastic demand for gold and oil," it said.

Higher CAD has adverse impact on rupee value and impacts foreign exchange reserves as well

Global investment banker Goldman Sachs said that rising CAD has been a key vulnerability for the economy.

"We think the CAD may have peaked in FY 2012, and will improve gradually due to the sharp depreciation in the INR (Indian Rupee) and falling oil prices. In our base case scenario, the CAD could fall to 3.5 per cent of GDP in FY13," it said.

Reply for: Financial Mess

Keshav Smith at 04:00 PM - Jun 28, 2012 ( )

Weakness in Europe market very obvious.

Reply for: SHOULD PARENTS TRUST THEIR WARDS(AHMEDABAD MIRROR)

Keshav Smith at 03:54 PM - Jun 28, 2012 ( )

Such ungrateful sons must be totally boycotted from society.

Reply for: need your prayers

Keshav Smith at 03:40 PM - Jun 28, 2012 ( )

my sincere prayers for the speedy recovery of your father

New Thread: Financial Mess

Keshav Smith at 11:24 PM - Jun 26, 2012 ( )

If you enjoy watching financial doom, then you are quite likely to really enjoy the rest of 2012.  Right now, red flags are popping up all over the place.  Corporate insiders are selling off stock like there is no tomorrow, major economies all over Europe continue to implode, the IMF is warning that the eurozone could actually break up and there are signs of trouble at major banks all over the planet.  Unfortunately, it looks like the period of relative stability that global financial markets have been enjoying is about to come to an end.  A whole host of problems that have been festering just below the surface are starting to manifest, and we are beginning to see the ingredients for a "perfect storm" start to come together.  The greatest global debt bubble in human history is showing signs that it is getting ready to burst, and when that happens the consequences are going to be absolutely horrific.  Hopefully we still have at least a little bit more time before the global financial system implodes, but at this point it doesn't look like anything is going to be able to stop the chaos that is on the horizon.

The following are 22 red flags that indicate that very serious doom is coming for global financial markets....

#1 According to CNN, the level of selling by insiders at corporations listed on the S&P 500 is the highest that it has been in almost a decade.  Do those insiders know something that the rest of us do not?

#2 Home prices in the United States have fallen for six months in a row and are now down 35 percent from the peak of the housing market.  The last time that home prices in the U.S. were this low was back in 2002.

#3 It is now being projected that the Greek economy will shrink by another 5 percent this year.

#4 Despite wave after wave of austerity measures, Greece is still going to have a budget deficit equivalent to about 7 percent of GDP in 2012.

#5 Interest rates on Italian and Spanish sovereign debt are rapidly rising.  The following is from a recent RTE article....

Spain's borrowing rate nearly doubled in a short-term debt auction as investors fretted over the euro zone's determination to deal with its debts. 

And Italy raised nearly €3.5 billion in a short-term bond sale today but at sharply higher interest rates amid fresh concerns over the euro zone outlook, the Bank of Italy said.

#6 The government of Spain recently announced that its 2011 budget deficit was much larger than originally projected and that it probably will not meet its budget targets for 2012 either.

#7 Amazingly, bad loans now make up 8.15 percent of all loans on the books of Spanish banks.  That is the highest level in 18 years.  The total value of all toxic loans in Spain is equivalent to approximately 13 percent of Spanish GDP.

#8 One key Spanish stock index has already fallen by more than 19 percent so far this year.

#9 The Spanish government has announced a ban on all cash transactions larger than 2,500 euros.  Many are interpreting this as a panic move.

#10 It is looking increasingly likely that a major bailout for Spain will be needed.  The following is from a recent Reuters article....

Economic experts watching Spain don't know how much money will be needed or precisely when, but some are near certain that Madrid will eventually seek a multi-billion euro bailout for its banks, and perhaps even for the state itself.

#11 Analysts at Moody's Analytics are warning that Italy has now reached financially unsustainable territory....

"Italy is already out of fiscal space, in our estimate." said Moody's. "Its debt levels relative to GDP already exceed a manageable level. The manageable limit for Italian 10-year bond yields is estimated at 4.2pc. As of Wednesday, Italian 10-year yields were 5.46pc."

#12 It is being projected that the Portuguese economy will shrink by 5.7 percent during 2012.

#13 There is even trouble in European nations that have been considered relatively stable up to this point.  For example, the Dutch government collapsed on Monday after austerity talks broke down.

#14 The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, says that there are "dark clouds on the horizon" for the global economy.

#15 The top economist for the IMF, Olivier Blanchard, recently made this statement: "One has the feeling that at any moment, things could get very bad again."

#16 A recent IMF report admitted that the current financial crisis could lead to the break up of the eurozone....

Under these circumstances, a break-up of the euro area could not be ruled out. The financial and real spillovers to other regions, especially emerging Europe, would likely be very large.

This could cause major political shocks that could aggravate economic stress to levels well above those after the Lehman collapse.

#17 George Soros is publicly declaring that the European Union could soon experience a collapse similar to what happened to the Soviet Union.

#18 A member of the European Parliament, Nigel Farage, stated during one recent interview that it is inevitable that some major banks in Europe will collapse....

There are going to be some serious banking collapses and the impact of that on some sovereign states, will be serious. I’m afraid we’ve gotten to a point where we really can’t stop this now. We’re beginning to reach a stage where however much false money you create, the problem becomes bigger than the people trying to solve it. We are very close to that point.

When I talk about the threats and the risk that this thing could wind up in some kind of rebellion, some sort of awful social cataclysm, they (other European politicians) are now very worried indeed. They will talk to you in private, but in public, nobody dares utter a word.

I think the deterioration, in the last two or three weeks, in the eurozone is very serious indeed. It’s the bond spreads in Italy and Spain. It’s the fact that youth unemployment is now over 50% in some of these Mediterranean countries.

It’s riot and disorder on the streets. And yet a month ago I was here and there was Herman Van Rumpuy telling us, ‘We’ve turned the corner. Everything is solved. There are no more problems with the eurozone.’ What a pack of jokers they look like.”

#19 The IMF is projecting that Japan will have a debt to GDP ratio of 256 percent by next year.

#20 Goldman Sachs is projecting that the S&P 500 will fall by about 11 percent by the end of 2012.

#21 Over the past six months, hundreds of prominent bankers have resigned all over the globe.  Is there a reason why so many are suddenly leaving their posts?

#22 The 9 largest U.S. banks have a total of 228.72 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives.  That is approximately 3 times the size of the entire global economy.  It is a financial bubble so immense in size that it is nearly impossible to fully comprehend how large it is.

The financial crisis of 2008 was just a warm up act for what is coming.  The too big to fail banks are larger than ever, the governments of the western world are in far more debt than they were back then, and the entire global financial system is more unstable and more vulnerable than ever before.

But this time the epicenter of the financial crisis will be in Europe.

Outside of Europe, most people simply do not understand how truly nightmarish the European economic crisis really is.

Spain, Italy and Portugal are all heading for an economic depression and Greece is already in one.

The European Central Bank was able to kick the can down the road a little bit by expanding its balance sheet by about a trillion dollars over the last nine months, but the truth is that the underlying problems in Europe just continue to get worse and worse.

It truly is like watching a horrible car wreck happen in slow motion.

The good news is that there is still a little time to get yourself into a better position for the next financial crisis.  Don't leave yourself financially exposed to the next crash.

Sadly, just like back in 2008, most people will never even see this next crisis coming.

Reply for: Know the market tricks before you trade

Keshav Smith at 10:26 PM - Jun 26, 2012 ( )

excellent

Reply for: Stock market crash & rupee fall

Keshav Smith at 12:49 PM - Jun 26, 2012 ( )

Read this and be careful

New Thread: Check this site & be alert

Keshav Smith at 10:30 PM - Jun 25, 2012 ( )

New Thread: An eye on Italy

Keshav Smith at 07:22 AM - Jun 14, 2012 ( )

Italy Moves Into Debt-Crisis Crosshairs After Spain 

The 100 billion-euro ($126 billion) rescue for Spain's banks moved Italy to the front line of Europe's debt crisis as an initial rally in the country's bonds fizzled on concern it may be the next to succumb. 

Italy's 10-year bonds reversed early gains today in the first trading after the Spanish bailout and fell for a fourth day, sending the yield up 20 basis points to 5.98 percent. 

"The scrutiny of Italy is high and certainly will not dissipate after the deal with Spain," Nicola Marinelli, who oversees $153 million at Glendevon King Asset Management in London, said in an interview. "This bailout does not mean that Italy will be under attack, but it means that investors will pay attention to every bit of information before deciding to buy or to sell Italian bonds." 

Italy has 2 trillion euros of debt, more as a share of its economy than any developed nation other than Greece and Japan. The Treasury has to sell more than 35 billion euros of bonds and bills per month -- more than the annual output of each of the three smallest euro members, Cyprus, Estonia and Malta. 

"The problem for Italy is that where Spain goes, there's always the perception that Italy could follow," Nicholas Spiro, managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London, said in an interview. "There is insufficient differentiation within the financial markets. It is clear as the light of day and has been that Spain's fundamentals are a lot direr than Italy's. That hasn't stopped Italy suffering from Spanish contagion." 

Italy's total debt of more than twice Spain's has given investors pause, especially in a country where economic growth has lagged the EU average for more than a decade. The euro region's third-biggest economy, Italy is set to contract 1.7 percent this year, more than the 1.6 percent in Spain, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates. 

Debt agency head Maria Cannata last week said that fewer foreign investors were turning up at Italian auctions in recent months and that the country could still finance at yields as high as 8 percent.

The exodus of foreign buyers has left the Treasury more dependent on Italian banks, which in turn have been among the biggest borrowers in the European Central Bank's three-year lending operations. Italy returns to markets before Spain does, selling as much 6.5 billion euros of treasury bills on June 13, followed by a bond auction the next day. 

"If Italy has a problem with accessing the markets because investors lose confidence in the Italian ability to do the right thing, the ECB will be drawn into the fire," Thomas Mayer, an economic adviser to Deutsche Bank AG, said in a telephone interview. "That could pose a potentially lethal threat to European monetary union." 

Once Italy is dragged back into this epic struggle with full force, one of the only remaining questions will be how long before France becomes a full-fledged member of the drowning Euro periphery. Given the potential speed of financial contagion at this point, and the firm policy divide between Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel, it may not be long at all. On the other side of the world, we have India creeping into the focus of the markets, as China's smaller cousin gets some well-deserved recognition.

It may be smaller, but it is faces all of the same financial, export, inflation and sociopolitical woes as China and it is arguably deteriorating at a much faster pace. India is a very critical economy for people to keep an eye on in upcoming months, as it will have severe implications for global investment and trade flows, as well as the social fabric of the massive Indian populace.

New Thread: National Debt increases more under Obama than Bush

Keshav Smith at 12:42 AM - Jun 12, 2012 ( )

Chart - Deficit 2012 (Credit: CBS)

(CBS News) The National Debt has now increased more during President Obama's three years and two months in office than it did during 8 years of the George W. Bush presidency. 

The Debt rose $4.899 trillion during the two terms of the Bush presidency. It has now gone up $4.939 trillion since President Obama took office.

 The latest posting from the Bureau of Public Debt at the Treasury Department shows the National Debt now stands at $15.566 trillion. It was $10.626 trillion on President Bush's last day in office, which coincided with President Obama's first day. 

The National Debt also now exceeds 100% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product, the total value of goods and services. 

Mr. Obama has been quick to blame his predecessor for the soaring Debt, saying Mr. Bush paid for two wars and a Medicare prescription drug program with borrowed funds. 

The federal budget sent to Congress last month by Mr. Obama, projects the National Debt will continue to rise as far as the eye can see. The budget shows the Debt hitting $16.3 trillion in 2012, $17.5 trillion in 2013 and $25.9 trillion in 2022. 

Federal budget records show the National Debt once topped 121% of GDP at the end of World War II. The Debt that year, 1946, was, by today's standards, a mere $270 billion dollars. 

Mr. Obama doesn't mention the National Debt much, though he does want to be seen trying to reduce the annual budget deficit, though it's topped a trillion dollars for four years now. 

As part of his "Win the Future" program, Mr. Obama called for "taking responsibility for our deficits, by cutting wasteful, excessive spending wherever we find it." 

His latest budget projects a $1.3 trillion deficit this year declining to $901 billion in 2012, and then annual deficits in the range of $500 billion to $700 billion in the 10 years to come. 

If Mr. Obama wins re-election, and his budget projections prove accurate, the National Debt will top $20 trillion in 2016, the final year of his second term. That would mean the Debt increased by 87 percent, or $9.34 trillion, during his two terms.

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