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Jagmohan Singh

Jagmohan Singh

Joining Date: 01 Jan , 2009
Last Login: 11:36 PM - 30 Jul , 2017
IP Address of Last Login - 169.149.238.xxx
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Reply for: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 11:32 AM - Feb 18, 2016 ( )

thank u all!!!

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 04:18 PM - Feb 17, 2016 ( )

your participation is my motivation! 

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 03:06 PM - Feb 17, 2016 ( )

o yes Sardaji!!! 

Reply for: Issues with Google Finance

Jagmohan Singh at 01:34 PM - Feb 17, 2016 ( )

no such issue with me....try some other browser like chrome etc

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 03:07 PM - Feb 16, 2016 ( )

thank u!!!

one goes out for a walk to think, relax.....for a change....and for reasons which probably don't hold good nowSmile

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 02:43 PM - Feb 16, 2016 ( )

thank u all friends!!!

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 02:43 PM - Feb 16, 2016 ( )

can't predict jayeshji

just following my trading system strictly

will stop and reverse (SARSmile) when it indicates

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 02:37 PM - Feb 16, 2016 ( )

yes, giteshji

a great feeling to be back in this warm forum of friends.....feeling like revisiting old school/college/univ

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 02:36 PM - Feb 16, 2016 ( )

booked a few lots for 100 points equiv at 7065 spot (short since 7165spot equiv)

holding 80% remaining lots

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 02:33 PM - Feb 16, 2016 ( )

positional short

New Thread: nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 02:30 PM - Feb 16, 2016 ( )

16feb...2.29pm...cmp 7097spot

positional short since 7165spot equivalent.....

down rally approx 60% over...



From: Jagmohan Singh at 10:32 AM - Feb 17, 2016( )


17feb, 10:29am, cmp 6984spot

booked a few lots for 180 points equiv at 6985 spot (short since 7165spot equiv)....holding 70% of the remaining shorts

rally approx 65% over imo



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:33 AM - Feb 17, 2016( )


my calculation says budget rally first thrust on thursday (tomorrow) and big push on friday noon.....let's see.....

17/2, 11:33am



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:28 PM - Feb 17, 2016( )


positional down rally 75% over imo.......12:27pm, 17feb, cmp=7028....

7000 to be breached soon again, imo



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:39 PM - Feb 17, 2016( )


booked all shorts



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:42 PM - Feb 17, 2016( )


turned positional long @ 7010spot equivalent

1:35pm, 17feb

budget rally starts now imo



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:46 PM - Feb 17, 2016( )


the up wave may be so fast and furious and winding up bear tents may take time....so turned long prematurely......imo, we are v near to buy on dips....and that real budget rally......let's see.....



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:06 PM - Feb 17, 2016( )


welcome to the Budget Rally 2016Smile



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:09 PM - Feb 17, 2016( )


It has to be fast and furious....to minimise the rush...

and i expect it to be big!!!



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:13 PM - Feb 17, 2016( )


booked a few lots for 100 points equivalent at 7110spot.....holding long since 7010spot equivalent



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:26 AM - Feb 18, 2016( )


booked a few lots for 175 points at 7185....holding 80pc remaining longs

long since 7010 spot equivalent



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:32 AM - Feb 18, 2016( )


we are in buy on dips zone....self talk



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:18 PM - Feb 24, 2016( )


since nobody participating, i assume that nobody interested in the thread. hence, closing it.

New Thread: stop worrying, start winning (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 11:14 PM - Mar 02, 2015 ( )

Have u ever gambled?

Have u ever got the privilege to go to a casino?

Yes! Great!

So, here’s my question....

Will u ever go to a casino without money? Will u be allowed inside without bucks in ur wallet?

Well, even if u dare to go there bare pocket and even if they do allow u in, i don’t think they will allow u to sit on the table empty handed......even if they are gracious enough not to throw u out....

So? What do i want to say?

Simple....

If u don’t expect urself to go to a casino without money, how do gather the guts to go to the mother of all casinos, the stock market, without money?!!

U probably would shout at me that i am wrong and that u do go trading with money....but i will not agree to that. Lemme prove that....

When u go to the casino, u take money out of ur pocket, buy the tokens, sit at the table and put them at the stake. Then, u play hard and good, trying to win the tokens put on the table by others also....

While the game is going on, for all those minutes and hours, everyone’s money is fully exposed to everyone present there.....everyone has the equal opportunity to snatch all the money for himself!!!

But what do u do in trading?

U enter the trade pit, take out ur money, buy the lot tokens, put them on the “table” but never leave ur hands from them.....you are always touching your money....ever so eager to take it back at the slightest hint of danger of losing it......

Result?

U r so scared of losing the money that u never start to even think of winning anyone else’s money......u r there just with a false and fake wishful self-appeasement that u have come to “make” money....whereas in-effect u r there just for the thrill of “gambling”....

So, what’s my point?

To win, others’ money, u have to lose focus of “your” money and focus on “others” money. Only then u can win. And like in a casino, when u win others’ money, u also get back all of your’s also.

Those who are too scared of losing rarely win......and never consistently.....

Trade with money u can afford to lose......but never before u have the method in place.....

And make sure u don’t trade with more than 1/20th part of ur trading capital.....even if u lose the first portion despite method, take it as just a probability outcome and nothing too serious. Take out the next portion and go for the next trade as per the system.....and so on.....you have to stop worrying about losing to win!!!

 

 

Reply for: how many lots? (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 11:12 PM - Mar 02, 2015 ( )

yes...right

New Thread: how many lots? (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 09:55 PM - Mar 02, 2015 ( )

How much money do u want to make thru trading per month?

1lac? 2 lac? 5 lac? 10lac?

Ok....1lac?

Fine!

How?

Well, well, well.....

Wishing means nothing without the way!

Market doesn’t owe u anything. U have to name it to claim it.....

Right!

Come, lets see how u can make 1 lac per month....

First u need a method...that too a tried and tested and great one....

And this article is not aimed at helping u get one.....it is assumed that u have one....already...

U will be tempted to say that what else is left to be done if u already have the method...

Well, right, and worng....

Right because the method that works is the key...

Wrong, because u r still far from the dream of making that 1lac u want per month.....

So, what is that which is left?

......what is left is

........applying that method to the effect....

Let’s take an example....

Suppose, u want to trade in nifty and with 10 lots.

A small back of the envelop calculation will tell u that u need

Rs.1,00,000/10lots=Rs.10,000/- per lot per month to total that 1 lac.....

That would mean Rs.10,000/25lot size=400 points per month per lot....

Easy?

Well, not impossible....but certainly not easy.....

Besides, history confirms that there are many months where market vibrates within 200,300 point band all month....and squeezing 400 points every month is not a joke....

Is there a better, more pragmatic way?

Let’s see....

Rs.1,00,000/50lots=Rs.2,000/- per lot per month to total that 1 lac.....

That would mean Rs.2,000/25lot size=80 points per month per lot....

Right?

Right.

Easy?

Yes....!

Except...the guts to actually put on the table that much....

Increase the bet-size bit by bit.....practice it...

practice,practice,practice....

can’t ignore lot size without never getting close to your dream!!!

(but ofcourse, got to have a method first.....)

 

 

 

New Thread: why i trade only nifty and other views (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 10:42 AM - Mar 01, 2015 ( )

Murliji has asked whether i trade in nifty only or in stocks also?

= Only nifty Murliji

Some reasons for this....

: 1.stocks don't obey technicals as much as indices do.....not difficult to understand why...because indices are average of the stocks and hence vibrate less

: 2.high liquidity

: 3.you don't have to study fundamentals of so many stocks....just macro

: 4. Premium is not bloated like that of stocks

: 5.stocks can crash like sky fall (Satyam etc), much more than index

: my technicals fail on stocks.....accuracy drops dramatically....

: earlier i used to blame my skills....but when same method worked beautifully in nifty, i got suspicious and checked deep.....only to discover that stocks are like single cylinder enfield bullet engine that vibrates a lot while nifty is an 8 cylinder coupe engine with all vibrations smoothened....

: nifty can't sleep for more than a few hours....stocks can remain sleeping for years

: that is, perhaps, the reason why they say trade the stock which has started moving....otherwise leave it till then

: good stocks are seeds which should be acquired and planted in one's backyard before they start shooting into trees.....or, in other words, before they start growing even bigger....much bigger

: so, stocks are great for investing.....

: but for trading, only those stocks should be touched which have said good morning....

: for day trading in stocks, algo trading is the only sensible profitable repeatable way....

so, for non tech savvy ...what is the way out..?

: if u r determined enough, u can still do it....but won't be a match for equally determined rajans

: for non-tech savvy traders like me, sticking to one day trading tactic and sticking to one or two stocks or just nifty or bank nifty is enough

: one of the unbeatable advantage of algo trading is that it can throw up a just-awakened stock out of a lot of hundreds and thousands of stocks.....

: since manually u can't match that, it is better to stick to ur favourite naughty stocks

: which almost never sleep...

: it is like asking someone to reproduce a thousand replicas of a handcrafted gun......

: a handcrafted trade will be a masterpiece even before the algo assembly line

: and a millionaire like u jp can always hire a techie to inject ur trading secrets into an empty algo

: i, for that reason, am a craftsman....only nifty, only one trade at a time....unlike the henry "rajan" ford assembly line

: but one day, i'm afraid, we artists will be extinct making way for the rajan robots....who will rule the world.....

: we will be cleaning them after every trading session and earning our livelihoods....

: one day, trading will change beyond imagination......

: we will miss the trading we don now....

: like those pit traders of the last century who have tears in their eyes recalling their pasts

: enjoy ur every trade....enjoy your every day in the terminal pit....enjoy your every win....celebrate ur every loss....

: there are many skeletons available in the market.....buy one and program it with ur method....or get someone do it......

: if u google, u will come across them....i forgot the one rajanji is using....

: you have asked do i use algo...well,i am old fashioned illiterate craftsman trader using free google charts and half empty head...i don't have access to any algo.....it is like urdu to me...rajanji ke paas jaata hoon to chai biscuit ke baad vaapis bhej dete hain...

: but someday i will hire a about-to-be-dead software programmer to code my method just before dying without making copies of that program

: i still belong to the school of thought that believes that human mind can beat computers in mischief and counter mischieves be it trading or anything.....

: not because i am that greedy or selfish....but because

: the day i openly reveal my method (as if that is a khajaanaa...anyhow) if it is of any worth it will become ineffective as the operators will change the setup...

: operators are like smart bacterium which quickly adapt to the over used antibiotic and change into a newer strain

: a close group is harmless

: incubator of ideas...

: my friends as my guinea pigs😜

: just joking.....i know my buddies have a terrific sense of humour

: successful trading requires a child's mind....

: a child is a great gamer....

: successful trading is nothing but great gaming.....

: i always say that as long as we are trading we will keep getting beaten....

: don't trade it....play it...like a game....

: we are playing on technical or fundamental level and getting beaten up on tactical level....

: a child can beat us all hand down...

: u and me stand no chance....

: the only thing is that that child doesn't know the jargon and is still a child....but given a chance children and make us run for covers in trading.....

: till of course, they continue playing the trades and don't start trading....

: this is the reason why engineers and physicians and ph.d.'s and ias and iit'ians and scientists etc are all losing miserably till operators make them forget who they are....

: i think a chess or kho-kho player or any sportsman can be a great trader...

: any thief or scamster can be a great trader...

: we have had many in history....i don't want to name them

: do u think that it is a coincidence that all the top business dons are actually not ph.d. or iit'ians or doctors!!!

: operators play.....u can survive and thrive only by playing....simple

they decide the program....they get techie goondas to code the algo and run it

i recently read "freakonomics" by steven d.levitt wherein he has elaborated how the top dons exploit the poor down-the-ladder poorly paid bonded-labour-goondas

New Thread: the trading butcher house (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 05:12 PM - Feb 28, 2015 ( )

: Stock market is a butcher house in the garb of casino under the license of trading.....self talk

: For profitable trades, traders don't have to or need to do anything.....Operators do what all is to be done....traders just have to choose the direction, trust the method and hold tight....self talk

: operators are nice people.....they never hurt anybody's sentiments.......they never make any budding trader feel outrightly that trading may not be his or her cup of tea......they bleed them like leeches...till they understand.....self talk

: stock trading is not a nice thing from both sides......only from the winner's side....and winners are generally by rotation......

: there are two types of traders.....amateurs and professionals. the day all amateurs are gone, there will still be two types of traders....amateur professionals and professional professionals.......till u approach trading with professional approach, u stand little chance.....self talk

: there may be a simple way of trading but there is no easy way....avoiding the basics of trading is only to prolong the already bleak chances of success.......because any budding trader has only limited mental strength and peace of mind to spend, let alone money to lose......

: a software is the surest way to commit trading suicide if the algorithm is wrong.....and to get the right algo u have to know the game itself......off-the-shelf algorithms are poison

: a trading software is not an alternative to learning trading.....it is complementary to trading.....

: a good software can multiply ur trading success, a bad one can divide it....

: i have seen most of the traders trade just because they don't have access to any other form of "kick"

: trading is a wonderful entertainment provided u just quit when the ticket money is vasool......don't sell yourself

: bring yourself back.....

: trading is the most difficult and least paying business in the world if you don't know how to.....and the most easy and highest paying business in the world if do learn..... 3:52PM, 28/02/2015] Jagmohan Singh: For profitable trades, traders don't have to or need to do anything.....Operators do what all is to be done....traders just have to choose the direction, trust the method and hold tight....self talk

: operators are nice people.....they never hurt anybody's sentiments.......they never make any budding trader feel outrightly that trading may not be his or her cup of tea......they bleed them like leeches...till they understand.....self talk

: stock trading is not a nice thing from both sides......only from the winner's side....and winners are generally by rotation......

: there are two types of traders.....amateurs and professionals. the day all amateurs are gone, there will still be two types of traders....amateur professionals and professional professionals.......till u approach trading with professional approach, u stand little chance.....self talk

: there may be a simple way of trading but there is no easy way....avoiding the basics of trading is only to prolong the already bleak chances of success.......because any budding trader has only limited mental strength and peace of mind to spend, let alone money to lose......

: a software is the surest way to commit trading suicide if the algorithm is wrong.....and to get the right algo u have to know the game itself......off-the-shelf algorithms are poison

: a trading software is not an alternative to learning trading.....it is complementary to trading.....

: a good software can multiply ur trading success, a bad one can divide it....

: i have seen most of the traders trade just because they don't have access to any other form of "kick"

: trading is a wonderful entertainment provided u just quit when the ticket money is vasool......don't sell yourself

: bring yourself back.....

: trading is the most difficult and least paying business in the world if you don't know how to.....and the most easy and highest paying business in the world if do learn.....

New Thread: importance of maintaining trading record (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 05:10 PM - Feb 28, 2015 ( )

: there are many benefits of maintaining a trading record....of all your trades.....
: e.g. in judging your track record, getting insights into what is working and what is not....
: ....u r losing in which setups and winning in which ones....
: .....what is ur average trading size.....what is ur average losing size....
: .....and many more benefits....besides for income tax prupose.....
: let me share my insights from my trading record that i maintain....
: 1. my success ratio is 72.7 %
: 2. my average winsize is 65points
: 3. i profit 88% of the times when i trade pro-trend
: 4. i have lost 65% of the times i have taken anti-trend position......also, the average winning size is much lesser
: 5. out of all my losses pro-trend, 75% are at the turning points.....i.e. when the market was about to turn, the trend was about to change.....this insight from the data led me to look for answers which i think i have found....
: 6. my success ratio with futures is 88% against 50% with options....this was a real shocker as earlier i always used to prefer options thinking they were safer.....

: ....there are many such insights i got from my trading data that i got......
: had i not maintained my trade record, i would have had no data to analyse. i wouldn't have had any base to check whether my trading was actually improving....i wouldn't have known what was working and what was not.....
: maintaining ur trade record always helps you know the reality....where u stand....
: besides helping maintain a clean record for taxation.....
“Measurement is the first step that leads to control and eventually to improvement. If you can’t measure something, you can’t understand it. If you can’t understand it, you can’t control it. If you can’t control it, you can’t improve it.”
― H. James Harrington



From: Jagmohan Singh at 05:37 PM - Feb 28, 2015( )


.....another insight is that my average holding time is 3.5days

.....i take an average of 10.5 trades per series

....my average loss size 32.5 points

....i loose the heaviest when i have highest lot size anti-trend!!! this was heights of stupidity.....i came to know about this only from trade record and stopped the hell doing it

the more i search, the more interesting things data tells me

whenever i am down.....i look at the entries of my biggest wins....

whenever i am on cloud 9 (like today) i check the entries with my biggest losses



From: Jagmohan Singh at 05:39 PM - Feb 28, 2015( )


trading starts revealing secrets to the student who offers his or her life to it on a platter....self talk

New Thread: none of your fault, buddy ! (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 12:28 PM - Jan 08, 2015 ( )

there are 2 types of market moves....

1. where operators are cooking something
2. where operators serve (forcefeed) you what they have secretly cooked (with ur mind hypnotised)

i call first, the forehand of trading table tennis
and the latter, its back hand

in my opinion, the forehand is difficult, if not impossible, to predict. though u can roughly and intelligently anticipate or expect.

it is the back hand that you can spot and play with much more accuracy.

so, only 50% of the opportunities are encashable practically speaking...though the good news is that even that much is wildly huge and hence, more than enough!!!

the trouble arises when a normal trader looks at all market moves with the same eye....

he/she is unable to spot the difference between the forehand or back hand.

while the forehand moves are highly unpredictable (because they depend totally on the game operators decide to play....if, when, as....), the back hand is predictable to a high degree.

forehand moves violate technicals (and even fundamentals)....they are mostly tactical in nature to confuse,trap, manipulate et al....they are the Krishnamachari Srikkanths of trading

on the other hand, the back hand moves obey technicals in almost copybook fashion.....they are the Gavaskars of trading....

--

today's (8th Jan nifty) forenoon rise is a typical forehand as was the fall of 6th forenoon.

--

so, next time, you don't know the head and tail of any move and just feel like kicking yourself.....don't........just recall that that that was a forehand smash by the operators.....none of your fault, buddy....

New Thread: nifty talk (wef 08 Jan) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 03:35 PM - Jan 07, 2015 ( )

continued from old thread

http://www.mudraa.com/trading/208301/0/nifty-talk-wef-22-dec-js.html



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:36 PM - Jan 07, 2015( )


trend = down

trade = currently out of market, squared shorts (taken yesterday @ 8205spot) @ 8103 spot equiv



From: Jagmohan Singh at 10:50 AM - Jan 08, 2015( )


10.46am, 8Jan

trend = down

trade = currently out of market, for shorting signal



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:49 PM - Jan 08, 2015( )


12.49pm, 8jan

shorted @ 8196spot equiv



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:25 AM - Jan 09, 2015( )


Short term Downtrend over. Will hold shorts till infosys results at least.risky trade.request you to use your discretion.

From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:03 PM - Jan 09, 2015( )


squared shorts @8260spot



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:46 PM - Jan 15, 2015( )


15jan, noon

bought nifty @ 8463spot equiv



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:51 PM - Jan 15, 2015( )


booked a few lots for 40 and 60 points @8503 and 8523 spot equiv

holding majority longs



From: Jagmohan Singh at 05:29 PM - Jan 15, 2015( )


pattern=up

sma=up

rsi, w%r=up

options=up (with volatility)....gates opened till 8600



From: Jagmohan Singh at 10:47 AM - Jan 19, 2015( )


booked a few lots fro 100 points at 8563spot equivalent at 10:12am.

(never wait for my updation, at times not in a position to open mudraa and update....due to other engagements)



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:36 AM - Jan 19, 2015( )


11:35pm, 19jan

my parameters/system says

= strong upward trend with sharp downward volatility. this rally likely to go much higher with good pain



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:14 PM - Jan 19, 2015( )


3:!5pm, 19jan

squared all remaining longs @8553spot equiv for 90 points

"final destination" feeling of a fall!!!



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:27 PM - Jan 19, 2015( )


shorted



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:59 AM - Jan 20, 2015( )


SQUARED SHORTS



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:41 PM - Jan 20, 2015( )


2:41pm, 20jan

bought nifty @8674spot equivalent



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:16 PM - Jan 22, 2015( )


stepped out @8730spot equivalent

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 22 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 12:46 PM - Dec 31, 2014 ( )

don't know...that u check....i am just reading out the message i have decoded from my method....it is my method speaking, not me....

let's see...

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 22 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 11:15 AM - Dec 31, 2014 ( )

65% still holding

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 22 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 07:12 PM - Dec 22, 2014 ( )

18th afternoon....

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 22 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 07:10 PM - Dec 22, 2014 ( )

murliji, i committed 3 mistakes in last 10 days....

1. i took a contra long call a week ago breaking my unwritten rule, succumbing to temptaion. since then, i have written the rule down on stone. i doubt u will ever see me take a contra call again.

2. i added shorts at 8040spot equivalent (as pointed out by u) again breaking my rule of set indications of "when to add to positions and when not". i shouldn't have. u r right. i doubt u will ever see me add to positions except at proper "platforms"

3. uptrend signal was developed by multiple indicators on 1th afternoon and i should have reversed trade that very day instead of waiting for overnight for confirmation.

all these costed me some money and lot of pride......but any cost for learning....

New Thread: the best gambling odds in the world (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 03:11 PM - Dec 22, 2014 ( )

market can either go up or go down.....
this makes it 50-50 chance for winning for anybody.....
yes....anybody...!!!

then why does everybody....yes.....almost everybody loses 80-90% of the times?

doesn't it sound amusing, if not outrightly absurd?

any idea why it happens that way?

despite that much of advancement in the technical indicators, expert fundamental advise, score sof business channels, tonnes of research and countless trainings?

well, in my opinion the culprit, in one word is,

"fiddling"

the more you know, the more u r anxious, the more u r greedy, the more u r fearful and the more u r emotional, the more u r nervous and unsure and full of doubt.

coupled with the noise all around and the fear of financial loss, u r always a perfect pigeon to fly at every clap.

"fiddling......yes fiddling"

when u r right...u fiddle and chicken out...

when u r wrong...u fiddle until it beacomes highly stressful and breaks...

the pinnacle of learning in trading is......unlearning!!!

i have seen traders learn learn learn....

though that is not wrong....rather a must, they forget to complete the studies which requires the trader to unlearn what his accumulated wisdom points out as "wrong, fake info"

this leads him/her to a filtered, evolved, distilled simple method which carved out of the chisel of improvement with losses arising because of "refusal to fiddle"



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:26 PM - Dec 22, 2014( )


self talk: 

market is a tiger who can surely eat you alive.....but a blind one.....a deaf one.....one with non functional nose.....he can't even smell you around!!! he just can't spot u till u move or come in his way!!!

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 22 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 02:42 PM - Dec 22, 2014 ( )

long since 8222spot equiv

New Thread: nifty talk (wef 22 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 02:42 PM - Dec 22, 2014 ( )

contd from

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?newp=1&messid=207771



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:52 PM - Dec 22, 2014( )


booked a few lots more @ 8302spot equiv for 80points



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:12 PM - Dec 22, 2014( )


booked a few token lots @8322spot equiv for 100points



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:40 PM - Dec 23, 2014( )


2:40pm, 23dec

uptrend intact as per my analyses. holding longs



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:00 AM - Dec 26, 2014( )


no sign of end of uptrend. holding longs. since i am travelling this week....detailed selftalks and analyses may not be able to upload. but will update trend views in short regularly and as and when any change.

merry Christmas!!!



From: Jagmohan Singh at 08:21 AM - Dec 30, 2014( )


self talk....if u don't know why u lost,u have lost more than u think....if u know why u lost, u have actually gained proportionately much more....

if u don't know why u profited, u have not profited in reality.....if u know why u profited, u have gained much more than u think...

knowledge is power...



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:26 AM - Dec 30, 2014( )


holding positional longs.....no signal of trend change



From: Jagmohan Singh at 10:58 AM - Dec 31, 2014( )


31dec, 10:55am

booked a few lots @8272spot equiv for 50 points again

holding all remaining long lots.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:18 PM - Dec 31, 2014( )


self talk : expecting good upsurge in coming days...



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:18 PM - Jan 01, 2015( )


self talk : maintaining long positions....expecting upside blast sooner than later.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:24 PM - Jan 01, 2015( )


self talk :

* complacency kils....no one loses worse than "the expert trader"...stay hungry, stay foolish

* indian indicators are unlike indian drivers...they give sufficient indication before turning



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:43 PM - Jan 01, 2015( )


self talk

.....a professional trader is very clear in his or her head

.....he/she is either clearly bullish or clearly bearish or clearly confused

......in the first two cases he/she takes a clear trade and in the third, he/she stays clear of trading

......inability to acknowledge one's confusion is disastrous



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:42 AM - Jan 02, 2015( )


booked a few lots at 8352spot equiv for 130pts

From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:16 AM - Jan 02, 2015( )


right now nifty train is between 2 stations......will wait for the next station for addinglongs. should board only on platforms unless one is mumbai lical train pro and risk is sufficiently covered.

next platform may be a few days away.

if u can afford the risk.....u can jump on. this likely to go much higher than this in my calculation.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:38 PM - Jan 02, 2015( )


few lots at 8392spot equiv for 170pts



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:39 PM - Jan 02, 2015( )


self talk....this is likely to go quite higher than this!!!



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:21 PM - Jan 02, 2015( )


self talk....if u can stand in the fog long enough, u start seeing things



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:59 PM - Jan 02, 2015( )


self talk

...there is always an innocent but genuine reason behind a repeated failure......ignore it and failure  will reward by repeating endlessly.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:20 AM - Jan 05, 2015( )


good morning... booked a token lot at 8422spot equivalent for 200 points

From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:06 PM - Jan 05, 2015( )


added longs at 8405spot equivalent

From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:20 AM - Jan 06, 2015( )


bought a few lots at 8236spot equi

From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:11 AM - Jan 06, 2015( )


will square all longs if not touches 8192spot



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:40 AM - Jan 06, 2015( )


uptrend over, dead cat bounce not ruled out. will start exiting on rises.

will wait before going short.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:56 PM - Jan 06, 2015( )


squared all longs and gone short @ 8205spot equivalent



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:58 PM - Jan 07, 2015( )


squred all shorts @8103spot equiv

will stay out as of now



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:36 PM - Jan 07, 2015( )


contd on new thread

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?newp=1&messid=208841

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 09 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 01:20 PM - Dec 18, 2014 ( )

ya....me positional in nifty.....that's all

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 09 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 01:06 PM - Dec 18, 2014 ( )

no no not bloodbath......forced blood donation.....involuntarily.....drip by drip sucked by operators.....often by stealth

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 09 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 01:02 PM - Dec 18, 2014 ( )

i believe in counting the chickens as they hatch.....anyhow, i will not be surprised if 7750spot comes by early jan

Reply for: nifty talk (wef 09 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 12:28 PM - Dec 18, 2014 ( )

didn't get ur question?

New Thread: 17 myths of charity (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 11:29 AM - Dec 14, 2014 ( )

the world is full of pain, sorrow, suffering, misery, trouble.....

many of these problems, especially in the third world countries are for the lack of funds. we often look towards govts for this financial support. govts often cite the excuse of lack of funds. but we all forget that the funds govt is talking about is actually nothing but the tax paid by the millions. therefore, we forget the power of the common people......we all....we all are those millions who fund the govts, armies etc.....then why can't we fund the help our fellow suffering humans need? let us not underestimate our ability.

in every religion including hinduism, sikhism,islam, christianity, buddhism and all other great religions of the world, there is a provision of contributing a percentage of one's earnings towards the help of the needy.

---

this article is dedicated to Bobby (Sarabjeet Singh), my friend in Shimla who has and is inspiring hundred and thousands of persons to come forward and extend a helping hand to those who are in need.

he has been running a dead body van in shimla free-of-cost since long time. 24x7, 365 days he is available at the beck of a call to reach anywhere in shimla and around to serve and carry the dead body of any departed soul of any religion, caste, creed, background.....for their last rights.

and recently, he took another initiative which has caught our imagination my storm. he, alongwith his spirited and dedicated friends of shimla and beyond started, with the help of the CM and the concerned authorities, started serving free tea and biscuits for all poor patients/attendants in the local cancer hospital every morning 7 to 8 pm. to this, he added serving free rice & dal every evening from 7 to 8pm. everyday expense is coming out to be 4000-5000 serving pprox 200 people in morning as well as evening.....all free of cost. initially, i thought, will there be anyone who would be needing this? are there so poor people in the capital who would be needing this?......but then, when i saw and heard the response, i was shaken to the roots. i came to know that people from all corners of the state were bringing their loved ones suffering from cancer to this state hospital. many of these were very poor. though the govt is giving them free treatment, some medicines are so costly that what to talk of it! this free morning evening free service is a blessing for those broken, poor souls!

no wonder , Bobby has named his NGO (Almighty Blessings)

Bobby's cell no. is 094180-61000.

there must be many Bobby's in your city. support them. if there aren't any as yet, be one.

like me, you might be having many apprehensions, inertia stopping you from taking that first step in this noble cause.

following are some of the myths, inhibitions, inertia dead weights.
i hope this helps in identifying and blasting away those excuses and propels u in helping fellow humans....let's make this planet a better place to live.

and in the words of Dr.Pramod Batra

"kii farak painda (what difference will it make?) v/s bot farak painda (it will make a difference)

(even i thought for once....what difference this article will make? but Dr.Batra's words pushed me to write it....bot farak painda!!! just like Bobby, i can, i thought, trigger my stranger friends far and wide, thru social media........and make a difference. over to you!!!)


---

17 myths of charity
====================

* only rich can do charity

= not true. how many rich have i seen who don't, won't and can't give and help! and how many "not so rich" and "not apparently rich" have i seen who have been helping!

my definition of being rich is simple - the one who give are rich and the one's who can't are not.....irrespective of their net worth. period.

 

* charity has to be big

= not true.sometimes all a man or woman or child out there in the winter needs is a cup of tea and a few biscuits! don't harbour inhibitions. start with whatever u can, whatever they need.

 

* "what will i get"

= if u r serious with that question.....do it and find out. answers will shake u, rejouvenate u! but for heavens sake, do it.

 

* "i don't have a reason to do it"

= but they have a reason to need your help. pl help.

 

* charity is for the successful who have "arrived"

= u will never be that much "successful" and that much "arrived" if you have seeds of discontentment......u will always be discontented and will keep postponing the help u could always give. "arrive" right now and make somebody's day!


* charity is for "someday" in future

= somebody's today wants that "someday" to be this very day! pl help.

 

* one needs a platform to do charity

= if u see a good platform, get on board, get associated. but if don't see one, make one. and if even that seems difficult, start without that. earth u r standing on is enough of platform to do what u can.


* "i find nobody needing my help"

= don't see, watch. don't hear, listen.....feel.....everyone needs help.

 

* i don't have money

= then give love, empathy, emotional support, physical help.....whatever.....u r very rich.......money is just one parameter of being rich.

 

* charity is promotion of begging

= use ur head and emotional intelligence to spot the difference. but don't stop.

 

* "will i get 80G (tax rebate) on it?"

= don't know. but definitely 80B (Blessings) and 80S (Solace)

 

* i can't afford to give

= if u can afford that smartphone and gprs and cigarrete and pizza and shoe and jacket and all that.......u can surely afford some iota more. rethink.

 

* it will be misused

= use ur head, crosscheck, verify....but for heavens sake don't stop. there are many like u who are honest to the bones! support them. join them.

 

* "somebody" should do it

= "i" is that "somebody"

 

* charity begins at home

= it definitely shouldn't stop there. and if Almighty is a father figure, who isn't in ur family.

 

* i didn't get help when i needed

= now, set the example. be different. make sure the one who is looking upto you doesn't say that.forgive and help.

 

* enough of it has already been done

= no, not enough. the world is waiting.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:15 PM - Dec 14, 2014( )


i hereby, pledge, to donate all my share trading profits (besides dasvandh from my salary) to the cause taken by Bobby and alike. i earn enough from my salary to support me and my family and live a happy satvik life.

New Thread: how to day trade (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 05:55 PM - Dec 13, 2014 ( )

dear Chandrakantji,

u have asked

"may I know strategy for intraday with single indicater or minimum indicaters?"

--

ur query gives me an opportunity to rethink, after a long time, a credible way to day trade, if i have to.

--

if i have to day trade, i would prefer to trade the following way

- a strong stock in nifty uptrend, or a weak stock in nifty downtrend....at their respective pullbacks in their respective directions. i will not day trade in stocks which are duds. only those with strength (or weakness) should be touched for day trading. lithargic, sick, indisciplined, moody horses not for day trading! this reduces the risk tremendously. also, i will never buy a strong stock in weak market OR short a weak stock in strong market.

- for this, i would have to be sure about the nifty trend. once that is done, half the homework is done. all that is left thereafter is to spot the strong (or weak, as the case of the market may be) stock.

- i would shortlist a few indicators - 2 or 3, to act as markers for entering and exiting the trade. e.g. one can ne sma crossovers, the second being rsi and the third being (fibo) pullbacks (higher lows or lower highs as the case may be)

- i would trade with strict pre-defined stop losses.

- would trade high volumes (small rides never mind).

- would exit in steps (and enter that way also).

- would have a sound low brokerage broker.

- would have lightening fast assured net/broadband connections

- will never take stakes more than 5% of the money in my trading account, even if that means it will take me 50 years to be a millionaire. (because i know there is something called compounding effect which will take care of the things later on)

- i will have good software (even if it is a free one called google finance)

- i will keep god out of trading and not blackmail him. (god helps those traders who help themselves)

- i will be ruthless in stop losses and methodical in profit booking.

- i will treat the loss, if resulted after following the above rules, as the unavoidable, expected and healthy cost of trading.

- i will not spend the profit but keep 50% in buffer fund and 50% ploughback for the next trade.

- i will not trade just because i want to. i will trade only if and when there is one, as per the written-down well-defined carefully selected method.

- i will not trade if i am excited or depressed or nervous or threatened or happy or sad or under any influence.

- i will not count my profit or loss. i will keep trading as per the method. i will remain living a decent frugal life i have always been living.

New Thread: trade stocks or nifty? (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 05:16 PM - Dec 13, 2014 ( )

dear Shankarji,
u have asked

"Majority of people are trading different stocks at one time and losing complete focus and concentration. Will you please give your views and the importance on concentrating Nifty or any stock exclusively"

--

well, i feel in stock market world, there are several totally different mini-worlds.
- stock investing
- day trading in index futures
- day trading in stock futures
- swing/positional trading in index options
- swing/positional trading in stock options
- scalping
- hedging
- arbitrage etc etc

all of these, i reapeat, all of these look similar but are a universe apart...

all of these require different training, different temperament and carry different risk/reward scenario.

different funds / entities specialize and focus on different categories from the above.

i am often utterly surprised to recall how i used to hop between day trading to swing trading to investing to scalping etc etc, just like fugitive who, when wanted by one state's police runs across the border to another trading territory.....only to be decimated wherever he goes.....

grass and trade on the other side always looks greener!

--

coming specifically to what u have asked shankarji,

stock trading is very very different from index trading.

since index is the average of top stocks (floating weighted mean of market cap) it's behaviour is totally different from the behaviour of individual stocks. it is less volatile and more predictable. it's response to technicals is more "true". in other words, index futures responds more accurately to technicals than individual stocks. also, stocks need different indicators to tame than indices.

contrary to a myth, to trade a stock u do need to have a tab on the fundamentals of that stock too besides understanding the macro exconomical factors which can effect them. otherwise, one misstep will take away much more than u have gained in many small favourable moves.

also, since the liquidity of nifty futures is much more than that of stocks, the premiums and market rates of nifty futures are much more "genuine" and much less "inflated" or "distorted". slippages are also quite less.

even among bank nifty and cnxit and nifty, there is heel of difference in scenario!

--

stocks are wild horses while nifty is a disciplined trained well bred stallion.
u decide which one to ride depending upon whether u r a tarzan or a professional jockie!

New Thread: what to do when u have missed the trade? (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 04:26 PM - Dec 13, 2014 ( )

murliji, u have asked

"Those who left the down trend bus prematuredly or those who haven't boarded yet, can they board in on Monday?"

--

i don't know that for sure.

will have to see the technical set-up / indicators on monday morning. if there is a big gap down opening, bullish rsi structure will be destroyed and that would mean that market will have to go down further to "make" next bullish divergence to be eligible for the next uptrend.

but inbetween the destruction and re-construction of this bullish divergence, market may attempt pullbacks or ranges. those may be the sell on rise occasions. we will look for the opportunities as they come.

difficult to predict too much in advance.

predicting market movement is like predicting weather. while u can predict to reasonable degree of accuracy for the next few days, the farther u attempt the prediction, lesser is the accuracy u can claim.

i have experienced that market itself doesn't know too much in advance where it is likely to go. operators don't know that either but what they know is this - they know that they can manipulate the way the things happen which have to happen.

--

having said that, i must add what i think of missed opportunities now a days...

an opportunity is always coming once every week. atleast, 3 times in a series for sure. not just for this series but forever.

so, whenever anyone has missed an opportunity, he/she would not have to wait for more than a few days, give and take a few.

but, whenever someone talks of the next opportunity, i take it as an indication of one kicking his boots for having missed a juicy chance and is itching for the next chance. though this is totally understandable, this needs to be conscious about as desperation can lead to reactive/instinctive behaviour by a trader leading to being trapped in operators' net.

we are susceptible to doing what we want to do instead of what we should be doing.

New Thread: ejecting from trades.lessons from fighter pilots (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 11:04 AM - Dec 13, 2014 ( )

pro traders and fighter pilots are not supposed to eject till the very last moment

murliji's poser has made be delve deeper into this off-the-cuff remark which i strongly believe in. let me think the why and how of it aloud here.

operators' (and for that matter every serious trader, big or small) primary, if not sole, aim is to get others' money. (it might sound devilish and hawkish and unethical, but that's what it is, trading being largely a zero sum game unlike investing).

since operators are the controllers of the market (they controlling overwhelming majority of the capital), they have to do that by ensuring that they catch the majority on the wrong foot.

and to do that, unpredictability/stealth/dodge/surprise/shock et al are their chief tactics. they will do even the most obvious in the most unobvious way.otherwise what's so difficult about the bet which has 50% assured chance of winning? (market can only go up or down, can't come out of the screen or go in deeper!)

now look at the other side of this predator-prey ground......the mass herd of traders!

while operators have tonnes of confidence and iota of fear, small traders have tonnes of fear and ounce of confidence! retails traders are doves ever ready to flutter and fly (eject) away, with or without their caiptal!

this fear is exactly what the operators want to keep the trader's in the losing majority! and mind you, greed is fear, inside out!!! both fear and greed are, hence, traps.

so, what does a trader have to do to be a Pro and not an Am so that he ejects not a second too soon?

first, have a method. learn to fly the jet to the hilt of perfection. crash the simulator a thousand times. literally! cry, sweat, quit and return....a hundred times! know everything that is on offer in the market. be there, do that. don't be afraid of any thread of experience. that can take from a few months to some years. depends on your resolve. the more u keep urself safe from bruises and cuts and heat and dust and pain, the weaker ur mental bones remain.

i recently watched a ted video wherein the speaker said that it has been proved that one can learn anything in 10 hours and master anything in 10000 hours. 10000 hrs, at a rate of 5 hrs a day will take 2000 days (roughly 7 years, give and take)......but remember.....10 hrs takes 2 days! so after the second day, u r on ur way and it gets better and better.....u start enjoying the pain after just a few weeks!

practice so much that every damn bluff and tactic of the operator becomes a "seen that tantrum a dozen times" stuff for u.

this is the stage when u are no longer a dove.....but a fellow hawk.

u develop thick skin and develop of habit of seeing beyond what is being projected. that way, u don't fear any longer......u find it much easier to hold on....a few seconds, a few minutes, a few hours, a few days more! u hang on....u master ur fear and keep looking at the opportunities......ur fear becomes dwarfer than ur self-confidence....

confusion fog will still always be there....but u will get the infra-red, x-ray....eyes to look thru....

u bear the pain of the wait and keep urself ready for any eventuality.....u become a sharp shooter marine who can shoot the coin-sized eye of the enemy from a hundred yards between narrow valley of two heads of friends!

u become so expert that u r able to spot right and wrong with amazing accuracy and at amazing speeds!

but u have to have a method....and then, u have to practice it.....tapasya!!!

in the words of one of my ex-bosses in my career....."nothing is magic, everything is logic". practice makes things appear like magic!

i and they and you.....all are as good as our methods....and our practice.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:12 AM - Dec 13, 2014( )










From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:17 AM - Dec 13, 2014( )


this kind of practice on the method......ensures that operators can't easily "surpise/shock/dodge/confuse/frustrate/unsettle" you!!!



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:12 PM - Dec 13, 2014( )


while a good fighter pilot or trade is courageous and bold enough to risk his life and capital, he has tamed his fears to the extent that he can take the right uninfluenced decisions.

New Thread: interpreting fii moves (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 11:07 AM - Dec 11, 2014 ( )

when market is falling, 4 scenarios arise viz a viz fii activity

1. fii net buying but not much
2. fii net buying heavy
3. fii net selling but not much
4. fii net selling heavy

interpretation
scenario 1 = downtrend doubtful as of then.
scenario 2 = just a pullback in confirmed uptrend.
scenario 3 = fii's want more time to fish for chosen stocks for lesser
scenario 4 = run (short) for life(time opportunity).crash approaching.

and

when market is rising, 4 scenarios arise viz a viz fii activity

1. fii net buying but not much
2. fii net buying heavy
3. fii net selling but not much
4. fii net selling heavy

interpretation
scenario 1 = uptrend at advance level? go slow with eyes wide open
scenario 2 = party just started, get onboard bagsful
scenario 3 = caution : diversion ahead
scenario 4 = last call before the diversion.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:34 AM - Dec 11, 2014( )


surprisingly, this week's fii movement so far indicates

"scenario 3 = fii's want more time to fish for chosen stocks for lesser"



From: Jagmohan Singh at 05:23 PM - Dec 11, 2014( )


what it indirectly means is that operators/fii's won't go too low and won't let it come up so soon. are we staring at a range bound movement?



From: Jagmohan Singh at 05:24 PM - Dec 11, 2014( )


afterall, they must have enough time for the heist they came for!!!

New Thread: nifty talk (wef 09 Dec) (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 04:16 PM - Dec 09, 2014 ( )

old thread

http://www.mudraa.com/trading/207221/0/nifty-talk-wef-25-nov-js.html



From: Jagmohan Singh at 04:17 PM - Dec 09, 2014( )



09dec, eod, cmp=8340spot

nifty analyses

pattern
= down

rate of change of price
= neutral

sma crossover
= down

rsi
= down

options data
= 75% pain over? strong buoyancy forces later in the series?

trend lines
= down

william % r (peak)
= some down before up?

price vs sma pattern
= down



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:05 AM - Dec 10, 2014( )



self talk...many many trapped by the fall......they unlikely to book loss what to talk of going short.......those who were out will try to go long.how many out of them will date to go short from here!!! when technicals still bearish, wouldn't aging to shorts here be a good idea????? Will add to shorts at opening.

 



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:24 AM - Dec 10, 2014( )



added shorts at equivalent to 8337 spot (8380 futures)



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:42 AM - Dec 11, 2014( )



booked a few lots bought at 8337 spot equivalent at 8287 spot equivalent for 50 points.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 10:00 AM - Dec 11, 2014( )



i suspect, we will see much lower levels notwithstanding minor pauses or climbs



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:27 PM - Dec 11, 2014( )



cmp=8289, 11dec,3:25pm

options data indicate that 8350 seems more difficult now than 8200 (for next few days). 8300 gate closed as of now. operators stand to lose above 8300, and gain if they take market down.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:09 AM - Dec 12, 2014( )



1108am, 12dec, cmp8308spot

pattern
= down

rate of change of price
= down

sma crossover
= down

rsi
= bullish divergence (but likely to be bluff)

options data
= gates losely locked at 8300 on downside. upside open till 8500!!!

trend lines
= down

william % r (peak)
= indicating we are near bottom of fall?

price vs sma pattern
= neutral

----------
analyses :

aggressive short positions should be avoided. though trend is still down as of now. expecting range bound movement in coming days. will use every dip to cover shorts in slices. will wait for sufficiently higher levels to short more. rsi is the indicator attracting my focus now. it seems half baked and not matured.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:53 PM - Dec 12, 2014( )



154pm

cmp 8270 spot

collapse not ruled out....



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:08 PM - Dec 12, 2014( )



booked a few lots (bought at 8337) for 90 points at 8247spot equivalent



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:34 PM - Dec 12, 2014( )



cmp=8237spot

if it falls 50-70 points more from here, only santa can make the christmas merry for long traders. operators have gate crashed.......



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:39 PM - Dec 12, 2014( )



i have often seen operators take such falls to ridiculous levels in the last hour........right now, tactics, not technicals are at play......those looking for logic might be disappointed......(how many times, i have been!!!)



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:29 PM - Dec 12, 2014( )



bear for wekend....



From: Jagmohan Singh at 06:30 PM - Dec 12, 2014( )



12dec, eod, cmp=8224spot

we are past the cusp. the high probability turning point of nifty is behind us. the down trend has resumed. bank nifty, which was hanging on till now and was thus saving nifty from a crash, seems to have succumbed. rsi pattern of bank nifty clearly indicating that good fall is coming bringing with it heavy downpour if nifty.

any more fall (and that looks imminent) and hopes of a full fledged proper uptrend in this series will be gone! (a relief bounce back notwithstanding).

looking at the state of affairs of europe and nasdaq's chart, good gap down opening expected monday morning. if that happens, rsi bullish divergence will be destroyed and would mean market will go deeper in dec end or jan before this bear rally ends. entire scenario will change. let's see.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:23 AM - Dec 15, 2014( )



15dec, 11:21am,cmp=8209spot

trend remains bearish, but options data suggests a 100 point nifty dead cat bounce not impossible. 8200 gate closed, not that loosely. so, i will cover shorts if spot now touches 8236. till then i will remain short.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:05 PM - Dec 15, 2014( )



+107+112 -43 +51+87+102+104+10+32+58+3+17+41+50+70+80+90+9+40+60+95+111+132+200+50
+70+101+132+31+91+143+183+223+273+50+73+45+118+373+84+155+422+134+72+143 +400-53-60+130+164+200+50+90

presently hoding lots shorted @8542 and 8337 (spot equivalent)



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:12 PM - Dec 15, 2014( )



covered all shorts @8236spot equiv for 306 and 101points resp. will stay out as of now



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:19 PM - Dec 15, 2014( )



bought nifty lots@8222spot equiv. no signal of uptrend. this is likely to be a short rise ride against the trend expecting a temporary dead cat bounce. therefore,risky trade, SL 8190spot



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:32 PM - Dec 15, 2014( )



primary reason for not being able to resist the temptation for going long from here is

= tremendous upward force i see accumulated in options spread. if wrong, will lose 32 points approx. if right, might take even 100 points plus. lets see.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:01 PM - Dec 15, 2014( )



will carry longs overnight.....unless stoploss hit before 3:30pm today. a genuine chance.....hence i want to take. europe in positive also.

 

From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:24 AM - Dec 16, 2014( )



booked loss at 8184spot equiv. will stay out.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 10:58 AM - Dec 16, 2014( )



shorted nifty again at 8111spot equi

 

From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:21 PM - Dec 16, 2014( )



115pm, 16dec, cmp8100spot

pattern
= down

rate of change of price
= down

sma crossover
= down

rsi
= bullish divergence melting away?

options data
= 8200 gate which was locked last evening broken open. though 8100 is closed visibly, it can be crashed also if operators wish to. but buoyancy is definitely on the upside.

trend lines
= down

william % r (peak)
= neutral

william % r (1yr)
= rebound not far

price vs sma pattern
= down

--

verdict / SAR
down



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:35 PM - Dec 16, 2014( )



booked a few lots @8071spot equiv for 40 points



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:20 PM - Dec 16, 2014( )



booked a few lots @8055spot equiv for 56 points



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:42 AM - Dec 17, 2014( )


booked a few lots at 8025spot equivalent for 86points



From: Jagmohan Singh at 10:11 AM - Dec 17, 2014( )


booked a few lots at 8025spot equivalent for 86points

booked a few lots at 7986spot equivalent for 125points



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:55 PM - Dec 17, 2014( )


added to shorts @8040spot equiv



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:00 AM - Dec 18, 2014( )


good morning.......will do what technicals say. i acknowledge unexpected gap up due to fed and gst. trend won't change just because of gap up. it needs to change the pattern to indicate that. it may do so....or fizzle out or mkt may enter a range......generally trends dont change at the drop of hat after such a big downtrend...

 big falls do have intermediate rises.....that is how lower highs and lower lows are made....

till trend change is visible in the pattern and indicators i am bearish. i wont mix fundamentals with technicals. otherwise.....i would also factor in russia.crude.slowdown etc. has gst been passed by rajyasabha!?

 if trend change signalled....i will book loss and go long.otherwise i will hold shorts and wait for adding at juicy higher levels. used to such difficult times.

enough of technical and fundamentals' complexities.....no room for emotions.....fear.greed.surprise.shock.worry.anxiety. hope.....etc......must not trade the trades but play the trades like a video game where zombies appear and u have to negotiate ur way out and away...

as i said i will square shorts ONLY IF technicals indicate trend change. othewise why should i? and for that to appear,i will wait till 1130atleast.....

ahain. I repeat if trend change signalled....i will book loss and go long.otherwise i will hold shorts and wait for adding at juicy higher levels. used to such difficult times.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 10:57 AM - Dec 18, 2014( )


self talk....if fii's were big net sellers in previous days then that means they were not accumulating.....so why would they be interested in taking market up? caution...if it doesn't fall in next 30 to 60mins....downtrend will be over

From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:54 AM - Dec 18, 2014( )


self talk: my technicals confirm that downtrend is intact.

added shorts @ 8101spot



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:32 AM - Dec 19, 2014( )


squared all shorts....taken longs at8222 spot equivalent



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:15 AM - Dec 19, 2014( )


bank nifty follows nifty. positive beta. so same outlook for both positionally....always



From: Jagmohan Singh at 04:33 PM - Dec 19, 2014( )


self talk....every aspiring trader MUST resolve to gather his her own lessons....only they are their best friends.....only they can liberate....
---
self talk...technicals indicated uptrend start. back to back parties will always be there alternatively hosted by bears and bulls
---
self talk....even if u can afford to take 100 nifty lots.....dont take more than 1. that too of 25size, not 50. all u need is 50000 in ur account to backup even a 1000 pt adverse move!!! master the method first and then increase the trade size...
---
caution.....i am human....with all defects a human trader is prone too. i may be wrong. pl take my trades only as one of the indicators. trade only after ur own study. i m just sharing my trades. these are not recommendations.
---
self talk....the best way to wipe incidental accidental losses is not the u-turn of market in ur favour but u-turn of ur trade in market's favour.
---
self talk.....a 20-20 ends in 20 overs....test match is different
---
allen u asked
" i read your self talk on buying just 1 lot even if you can afford 100. In this context. .I remember your self talk long back which I connected and believed immensely. You wrote that" getting a trade right has nothing to do with the number of points that a trade may give. So success ratio of getting a trade right is the same for a small medium or large ride. So why don't traders go for multiple lots...on short rides." I found much wisdom in this strategy. Your comments therefore on the 1 lot issue. Rgds.

= my reply : that's what I'm still saying. first get the method right. and once that becomes highly dependable never trade penny small....
---
self talk....the beauty of positional trading is that u r totally free till the next reversal signal comes. and reversal signal generally takes 2to3hrs to develop....so u need to check chart for a few seconds or mins once every 2hours....
---
self talk...whatever the chart time frame u decide....select it....and then weave the entire method around it....
---
self talk....main purpose of the indicators and other tools is to segregate whipsaws from genuine turns....
---
self talk....positional direction doesn't change more than 1 or 2 times in a month....rarely 3times....no need to panic
---
caution....in the forum, both intraday as well as positional views are pouring in.....use separate minds for both
---
a question which will precipitate any budding trader's mind....where will u be in trading in 5 yrs from now ??!! where do u see yourself to be? attempt an answer and work accordingly.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:40 PM - Dec 22, 2014( )


2:40pm, 22dec,cmp=8272spot

booked a few lots for 50 points



From: Jagmohan Singh at 02:45 PM - Dec 22, 2014( )


thread shifted to 

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=208301

New Thread: tomorrow's day trading ideas (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 10:52 AM - Dec 06, 2014 ( )

wef from today (6dec'14) i am starting, on experimental basis, this day trading ideas thread. 

every evening i analyse range of stocks to shortlist best day trading bets for the next trading day. i will be sharing these here.

remember, these are 1-2 days trading ideas only (either intraday or at most, till the next day)

i may or may not be trading in these. no stop loss or target will be given. these shall not be recommendations. just sharing the stocks which, as per my trading system, can be reasonably bought for 1-2 day horizon.

will keep on recording the results to check percentage accuracy,

all these will be long side (buying) ideas, no shorting ones. i hope i will find something to buy even in declining markets. also, there might be dot ball days!

pl trade with ur own judgement. no responsibility for profit or loss.



From: Jagmohan Singh at 11:23 AM - Dec 06, 2014( )


trading ideas for 8th dec monday

1.cipla, 2.axis bank, 3.jet airways, 4.indian bank, 5.allahabad bank, 6.yes bank



From: Jagmohan Singh at 09:05 AM - Dec 07, 2014( )


performance measurement criteria is simple

=whether and how much high the stock price goes intraday from the low  of first half hour. if the stock price were to end flat or even negative after giving substantial highs in the day it will be considered success.

--i share my shortlist of day trading ideas......the stocks which, in my analyses, are relatively safe for bullish trade for the day.......you decide whether you want to trade or not, in which stock, how much, entry and exit points, stop loss etc. this will help you tremendously develop your own trading nerves and muscles.

-- trade small, trade with stop loss



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:25 PM - Dec 08, 2014( )


1:24pm 8dec

cipla =first 30min low=646.75,high made=654.50 (plus 1.2%)
axisbank=first 30min low=500.55,high made=500.86 (neutral)
jetairwa=first 30min low=383.00,high made=400.10 (plus 5%)
indianbB=first 30min low=202.35,high made=202.15 (neutral)
allahabk=first 30min low=130.70,high made=133.95 (plus 2.5%)
yes bank=first 30min low=742.75,high made=745.45 (neutral)



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:27 PM - Dec 08, 2014( )


lesson : when the chosen stock is NOT doing what u intend it to, get out of it.

STAY in the stock which is doing what u want it to do and keep exiting in steps (2 to 3)



From: Jagmohan Singh at 03:48 PM - Dec 08, 2014( )


trading ideas for 9th

maruti, hindustan unilever, acc, ambuja, hindustan zinc,gmr infra



From: Jagmohan Singh at 01:01 PM - Dec 09, 2014( )


squaring all intraday stock positions to focus on nifty trades.

more than half stocks taking beating. either downside trades should be looked for in falling market or longside ideas be tried in uptrends only.

will come back with this concept later after improving upon it. presently not a success

market corrections are rarely more than 33% from the highs

sometimes they are much less, or, the rebounds from the correction lows are so fast that u r not able to get on to the band wagon again.

not only this, u rarely trust the bounceback after correction so easily. u keep on suspecting the recovery and keep hoping that the stock will go down further before u buy back the stock again.

four more logics and the argument in favour of staying put with the good stocks in correcting markets is complete.....

1. any gains in the stock will be totally tax free if u stay invested for more than 1 year! u will save upto 33% tax u were otherwise required to pay! that 33% will take care of any potential 33% decline!

2. u don't miss on any bonus issues or dividends etc.

3. peace of mind.

4. you can always buy more when good stocks decline!

New Thread: curious case of stock split! (Js)

Jagmohan Singh at 12:22 PM - Dec 04, 2014 ( )

every icici bank share split into 5 today
from 1798, it "fell" to 361 (cmp)

no of shares became 5 times, value per share became one fifth.
market cap of the company remains same...

so why split the share?

this simple curious question led me to the article

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/072501.asp

in simple words, it is more of a psychological pricing tactic. instead of 1kg sugar packs, the same amount now availble in 5 packs of 200gms each!

amusing! interesting! intriguing!

but to me, it has done irreparable damage......my technical chart is damaged.....blasted......no tech analyses possible now for a long time!

A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.....sure
but a stock will blow bigger and faster like a bubble when split!!!

 

 



From: Jagmohan Singh at 12:28 PM - Dec 04, 2014( )


(caution: to an unsuspecting amateur investor, such splits can split end the life with a cardiac arrest)

Threads by Jagmohan Singh
TitleDate
nifty talk (wef 16feb) (Js) [31 ] Technical Calls 16 Feb, 2016
stop worrying, start winning (Js) [3 ] Learning Section 02 Mar, 2015
how many lots? (Js) [7 ] Learning Section 02 Mar, 2015
why i trade only nifty and other views (Js) [4 ] Learning Section 01 Mar, 2015
the trading butcher house (Js) [2 ] Learning Section 28 Feb, 2015
importance of maintaining trading record (Js) [3 ] Learning Section 28 Feb, 2015
none of your fault, buddy ! (Js) [1 ] Learning Section 08 Jan, 2015
nifty talk (wef 08 Jan) (Js) [25 ] Technical Calls 07 Jan, 2015
the best gambling odds in the world (Js) [5 ] Learning Section 22 Dec, 2014
nifty talk (wef 22 Dec) (Js) [36 ] Technical Calls 22 Dec, 2014
17 myths of charity (Js) [11 ] Learning Section 14 Dec, 2014
how to day trade (Js) [10 ] Learning Section 13 Dec, 2014
trade stocks or nifty? (Js) [1 ] Learning Section 13 Dec, 2014
what to do when u have missed the trade? (Js) [4 ] Learning Section 13 Dec, 2014
ejecting from trades.lessons from fighter pilots (Js) [4 ] Learning Section 13 Dec, 2014
interpreting fii moves (Js) [6 ] Learning Section 11 Dec, 2014
nifty talk (wef 09 Dec) (Js) [108 ] Technical Calls 09 Dec, 2014
tomorrow's day trading ideas (Js) [15 ] Technical Calls 06 Dec, 2014
stay invested in good stock during mkt corrections (Js) [2 ] Learning Section 04 Dec, 2014
curious case of stock split! (Js) [1 ] Learning Section 04 Dec, 2014
nifty talk (wef 25 Nov) (Js) [39 ] Technical Calls 25 Nov, 2014
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fundamentals vs trading (Js) [3 ] Learning Section 01 Nov, 2014
nifty talk (wef 29oct) (Js) [78 ] Technical Calls 28 Oct, 2014
pair trade 1 (Js) [6 ] Technical Calls 21 Oct, 2014
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